Wall Street's year in turmoil

Wall Street's year in turmoil (Reuters Video, 03:47 Report)
Dec 30 - 2008 was a roller coaster ride of bad news leaving investors bracing themselves for what's next.
2008 went from bad to worse. The housing crisis led to a devastating credit freeze that spread to the banks and eventually infected the entire U.S. financial system, crushing confidence in the U.S. economy.

Despite a horrendous year for the World's Stock markets in 2008, most markets close on an up note on the 31st of December

Despite a horryfing year for the World's Stock markets in 2008, most markets close on an up note on the the last trading day of the year.

(Wednesday December 31st)
Asian Market close up modestly with gains around 1% .
The European Markets were higher in very light trading with gains between 1% and 2,2% gains.
The US markets are poised to open higher and expected to close with gains between 1% and 2%.

The Oil prices are steady near $39 in light New Year's Eve trade.
Precious Metals are expected to rise sharply in 2009.
For 2009 Deflation is a bigger risk than Inflation, and the real financial crisis is still further developing.
Governments are in the process of handling the damage done to the economies and thinking in terms of rescueing packages. The issue will be how long it will take to stabilize credit markets and thus economic activity. The 2010 recovery is likely to be moderate, despite unprecedented global policy stimulus.
The Euro is quite strong at the moment, but has a large downward potential for 2009.
Report 2009 Dollar Outlook (Morgan Stanley)

It sounds very negative, but it could be better to prepare yourself for more financial stupidities, scams, frauds and scandals turning up in 2009.

World markets close 2008 bruised and confused
World markets closing out grim 2008, bruised and confused after year of turmoil
LONDON (AP) -- World stock markets were seeing out 2008 in a bruised and confused state after a year of dizzying turmoil, with stocks in Europe and Asia little changed Wednesday in light trading.
In very modest shortened New Year's Eve trade, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed up 41.49 points, or 0.9 percent, at 4,434.17, while France's CAC-40 close up a bare 0.84 point, or 0.03 percent, at 3,217.97. Germany's DAX was closed for New Year's Eve.

Earlier, markets that were open in Asia ended the year mixed. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 152 points, or 1.1 percent, to end at 14,387.48 -- 48 percent lower than when the year began. Australia's key index added 1.9 percent but stock averages in Mumbai, Shanghai, Malaysia and Singapore fell modestly. Markets in Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand were closed for the holiday.

This ends the worst year on record for the Stockmarkets.
Keep your nerve in 2009.

Happy New Year!

Madoff probe extends into offshore funds: report

Madoff probe extends into offshore funds: report

(Reuters) - Federal prosecutors investigating Bernard Madoff's $50 billion fraud are starting to look into the role played by offshore fund operations, the New York Times reported.
Investigators are especially interested in whether Madoff and some of his investors used funds based in offshore tax havens to evade American taxes, the paper said, citing a person who was briefed on the investigation and remained anonymous.
The paper said, according to the person, the likelihood of charities improperly allowing their donors to shift money offshore and foreign banks withholding American taxes on Madoff accounts were also being scrutinized.
According to the paper these include funds linked to the Fairfield Greenwich Group, which lost $7.4 billion of its investors' money to Madoff, Tremont Group Holdings, which had $3.3 billion invested, and several Swiss banks.

Update January 29, the Madoff Case is expanding, there is quite a bit to tell about this guy, his houses, his contacts, the psychology, the warnings, the suspicions, and so on. But we run a blog about the Stock Market and the Economy, and not a tabloid about greedy celebrities or power-hooked royalty.
There is however an interesting post on this blog from January 26th about the Dutch Royal Family being a possible victim of the Madoff scam. (It is still a rumour, and only circumstantial exists until now. This post is in Dutch. http://beurskrach.blogspot.com/2009/01/klopt-het-wat-weekblad-priv-heeft.html )

Getting the money for the economic stimulus plan.

Getting the money for the economic stimulus plan.

With President-elect BarackObama's Inauguration Day less than 3 weeks away, Democratic lawmakers want to pass a far-reaching bill to save the economy. The largest Washington spending bill of all time, which is expected to reach the 1 Trillion Dollar will face some opposition from Republican Senate leaders and could easily be pushed forward in to February.
Democratic negotiators in the House and Senate are working on proposals that they will present to their chambers after the new Congress convenes on Jan. 6.
There is a chance a stimulus bill will be passed by Jan. 20, but it might be the first of two pieces of legislation.
"The first will be stimulus measures intended to get folks back to work and to help with housing. Then a broader measure will advance that will include more public works projects and related measures," said Jaret Seiberg, a financial services analyst at the Stanford Group, a Washington-based policy research firm.
With worsening economic conditions, the estimated cost of stimulating the economy shoots up.
Obama has said he wants to genarate or save 2.5 million jobs in the next two years. With the economic crisis spreading through allmost all levels of industry and the services sector being hit as well, unemployment rising, the retail sector suffering and consumer confidence at an all times low, this is a tremendous challenge. It is no more a matter of just throwing money at the problem but creating a fine-tuned stimulus package, which will need some time.
(Source CNN Money)
Road to stimulus: Speed bumps ahead

De AEX in de laatste dagen van december 2008

De AEX is in 2008 ruim gehalveerd en zweeft nu (30-12-08, 10.30 uur in Amsterdam) rond de 243 punten.
Zoals op alle beurzen in deze laatste dagen van 2008 is de handel vrij rustig met lage omzetten. De AEX is met ruim 50% verlies relatief zwaar getroffen in 2008. Vooral vanaf half september is het bergafwaarts gegaan.
De Fortis affaire, heeft daar een grote rol in gespeeld en ook de andere financiële fondsen hebben het in de 'fall-out' van de meltdown zwaar te verduren gehad.
Nederland met de AEX als beursgraadmeter is niet het meest interessante land om te volgen daarom hebben wij er ook weinig aandacht aan willen besteden. (Bijna 70% van ons bezoek komt uit het Angelsaksische taalgebied).
Toch verwondert het ons nog steeds waarom het zolang geduurd heeft voordat ook hier in Nederland de alarmbellen gingen rinkelen.
De krediet crisis in de USA is al ruim een jaar aan de gang en het was gewoon belachelijk te veronderstellen dat die crisis geen wereldwijde impact zou hebben en niet tot een recessie zou leiden.
Zelfs in de Troonrede van 2008 werden er nog geruststellende woorden gesproken. Op dat moment en nu achteraf bezien volstrekt onbegrijpelijk.
Maar goed dan ook, zand er over en maar hopen dat er ook in Regeringskringen wat meer inzicht doorbreekt.

Wij verwachten trouwens een Kabinetscrisis in 2009 en nieuwe verkiezingen.
De sterke Euro kan een probleem worden voor de export en zodoende voor het herstel van de economie.
De Euro vierde gisteren zijn tiende verjaardag en mag als een succes beschouwd worden. Met het Britse pond sterling nu bijna gelijk aan de Euro en slechte vooruitzichten voor de Engelse Economie wordt de kans van een UK toetreding tot de Euro Zone steeds groter.

Nu we toch in de 'kristallen bol' aan het kijken zijn, wij blijven bij onze stelling dat het dieptepunt van de markt nog lang niet bereikt is en gaan uit van een AEX rond de 180 punten in 2009 en een Dow Jones van rond de 5000 punten.
Het heeft weinig zin dat te herhalen, bovendien balen we ook wat van al die negatieve voorspellingen, daarom geven we alleen de link naar vorige artikelen.

Waar ligt de bodem van de markt? (geplaatst op 27 oktober 2008 op dit blog)
(Tekst op dit Blog: Op het moment weinig tijd, en er is ook nog niet veel veranderd, dus maar even een doorlink.)
27 oktober, 2008. Waar ligt de bodem van de markt? Dat is moeilijk te zeggen, maar we beperken ons even tot de AEX en de Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA). Voor de AEX verwachten wij voorlopig het dieptepunt rond de 180 en voor de Dow Jones rond de 6000. De financiële crisis werkt nog even door terwijl de gevolgen van de wereldwijde recessie zichtbaar gaan worden. Dat betekent een ‘spill over effect’ in allerlei andere sectoren, luxe goederen, grondstoffenmarkten en riskante emerging markets. Er komt minder geld beschikbaar vanuit de rijke olielanden, de economie in China loopt ook terug, ergo een minder uitbundige groei en zelfs een krimp. Japan zit ook in de (¥) problemen, en de hele Asia/Pacific markt krijgt een fikse tik. De tweede golf van de global meltdown manifesteert zich. Voor de EU (en Nederland) rekenen wij op een krimp van de export. http://www.beurskrach.com/html/koersen.html)

The imminent risk of a Market Collapse and a further Meltdown is probably not due before March or April 2009.

Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian Sells Remaining Stake in Ford

Billionaire Kerkorian Sells Remaining Stake in Ford

Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian has sold his remaining stake in Ford Motor after betting over $1 billion in a rebound by the auto maker.
Kerkorian's pullout from Ford completed a costly retreat for the activist investor, who has a mixed track record with investments at all three Detroit-based automakers.
A spokesman for Ford could not immediately be reached for comment.
Kerkorian, 91, previously held a nearly 10-percent stake in General Motors [GM 3.59 -0.07 (-1.91%) ] and made a failed bid for Chrysler last year.

Kirk Kerkorian is one of the 400 richest Amerucans.
Last year's biggest gainer is one of this year's biggest losers. Slumping casino industry has pushed his 52% stake in gambling giant MGM Mirage—worth $14 billion in October—to a mere $5 billion. Company's stock fell 65% between October and June, volatile since. Another poorly performing investment: Ford. Tracinda Corporation is Kerkorian's Investment vehicle.

Oh, oh, UK, what will bring the year 2009 for you?

What will bring the year 2009 for the U.K.? With a sinking properties market, rising unemployment, heavy suffering retail sector and a British pound going to par with the Euro, it looks like the U.K. will be one of the first visible recession victims in Europe.

UK retailer Adams on the brink of bankruptcy

LONDON (AP) -- British children's clothing retailer Adams Childrenswear Ltd. is on the brink of a form of bankruptcy protection, a spokeswoman for the 75-year-old company said Monday, which would make make Adams the latest well-known British retailer to fall victim to the economic downturn.
The administrators will then try to salvage as much of the company as possible for the benefit of creditors. That can involve trying to keep the business as a going concern or breaking it up and selling it off.
"We don't know whether the stores will close or some stores might be sold," said Gisborne. "The director of the company is in a meeting right now discussing details."
Adams -- which employs around 2,000 people, has 260 stores in Britain and over 100 international outlets in the Middle East and Europe -- is owned by Northern Ireland businessman John Shannon, who bought it out of administration less than two years ago.

Pound hits record low versus euro

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling hit a record low against the euro and a basket of currencies on Monday, stung by an ongoing view that the weak UK economy will require more interest rate cuts.
Further aggressive policy easing would keep British borrowing costs well below those in the euro zone.
The euro climbed as high as 97.98 pence in extremely thin trade, edging closer to parity after figures showed that UK home prices continued to fall in December, taking them nearly 10 percent lower since the start of the credit crunch in August 2007.
"People have been selling sterling on the back of bad news much more than other currencies, and recently, that's been exacerbated by poor liquidity," said Adarsh Sinha, currency strategist at Barclays Capital in London.
Market participants said trading volumes were far lower than usual, with some saying that liquidity was half of what it usually is, which was aggravating year-end trade. In such conditions, many said that it was just a matter of time before the euro reaches parity with sterling.

The Markets in the last week of the year

The world's stock markets are entering the last week of what has been a 'brutal' year with record losses.
The Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) has tumbled 36% and is on track to suffer its worst annual decline since 1931. The Nasdaq is off 42.5% and the S&P 500 is down 40.5%.
After the credit crunch of the beginning of this year the outlook for the world economy deteriorated surprisingly rapidly. Optimists still expect a return to growth in the second half of 2009. Pessimists expect this to happen not before the 3rd quarter of 2010.
Authorities and governments have a tendency to overestimate their capacities and usually simply look at the statistics (and not behind the figures) to stimulate the economy. We lean towards the pessimistic side until somewhat more rational and higher intelligence minds emerge. What has gone wrong in the last 25 (or more) years cannot be fixed in a couple of months or quarters.

Trading in the last week of this volatile year is low volume, a lot of traders are on vacation till the end of next week, trading is done for the books and year-end tax purposes. Companies and Governments wait with bad news till after the holidays.

In 2008 we saw a tremendous increase of the Oil Price and an almost equally fast decrease. The decrease is due to lower demand, less economic activity, the outlook and forecasts of the world economy. But already dissident voices within OPEC and pressures from outside OPEC ask for more production cuts to raise the crude oil price again.

The markets in Asia were slightly up this morning. (10.30 CET)
Europe opened with gains between 1% and 2.2%, on very low volume.
U.S. Markets, pre market indicators point to a moderately higher opening.

The Euro (€) is celebrating its 10th birthday this week.

Depression 2009: What would it look like?

A modern landscape of scarcity. Depression 2009: What would it look like?

The financial crisis tearing through Wall Street is routinely described as the worst since the Great Depression, and the recession into which we are sinking looks deep enough, financial commentators warn, that a few poor policy decisions could put us in a depression of our own.
Most of us, of course, think we know what a depression looks like. Open a history book and the images will be familiar: mobs at banks and lines at soup kitchens, stockbrokers in suits selling apples on the street, families piled with all their belongings into jalopies. Families scrimp on coffee and flour and sugar, rinsing off tinfoil to reuse it and re-mending their pants and dresses. A desperate government mobilizes legions of the unemployed to build bridges and airports, to blaze trails in national forests, to put on traveling plays and paint social-realist murals.
Today, however, whatever a depression would look like, that's not it. We are separated from the 1930s by decades of profound economic, technological, and political change, and a modern landscape of scarcity would reflect that.

What, then, would we see instead? And how would we even know a depression had started? It's not a topic that professional observers of the economy study much. And there's no single answer, because there's no one way a depression might unfold. But it's nonetheless an important question to consider - there's no way to make informed decisions about the present without understanding, in some detail, the worst-case scenario about the future.
By looking at what we know about how society and commerce would slow down, and how people respond, it's possible to envision what we might face. Unlike the 1930s, when food and clothing were far more expensive, today we spend much of our money on healthcare, child care, and education, and we'd see uncomfortable changes in those parts of our lives. The lines wouldn't be outside soup kitchens but at emergency rooms, and rather than itinerant farmers we could see waves of laid-off office workers leaving homes to foreclosure and heading for areas of the country where there's more work - or just a relative with a free room over the garage. Already hollowed-out manufacturing cities could be all but deserted, and suburban neighborhoods left checkerboarded, with abandoned houses next to overcrowded ones.

Despite Recession Total U.S. Online Advertising Spending will increase in 2009

It looks like the Online Advertising Industry will escape a downturn in 2009. With Google stocks hoovering around $300.- (52-Wk High:12/27 $716.00. / 52-Wk Low:11/21 $247.30) and the whole Advertising Industry feeling the pinch, this is at least a glimmer of hope. We will know more when the 4th quater results of 2008 are announced. See the eMarketer's Predictions for 2009, below (click on link).


Total US Internet ad spending will increase to $25.7 billion in 2009, an 8.9% growth rate. That will be the lowest year-over-year increase for online advertising ever.
Yet it will still be a robust increase compared with nearly all other media.

Search marketing spending will grow by 14.9% in 2009, to $12.3 billion. Search marketing is not recession-proof, but it is recession-resistant. Two basic assumptions support this eMarketer projection. Search is highly measurable, so it will maintain its place in many budgets and increase in some others, as advertisers look for secure and effective methods to combat fear in an economic meltdown.
Also, consumers—who monetize search ads by deciding whether or not to click—will take money off the table by shopping less, and put money back on by searching for deals. Although search advertising will grow less in 2009 than in any previous year, its inherent strength will mean greater spending gains than for any other major form of advertising, whether online or offline.

Hot, Flat, and Crowded

You can read the First Chapter of Hot, Flat and Crowded, online

‘Hot, Flat, and Crowded’ - Why We Need a Green Revolution — and How It Can Renew America
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN - Published: September 10, 2008
“German engineering, Swiss innovation, American nothing. — Advertising slogan used on a billboard in South Africa by Daimler to promote its Smart ‘forfour’ compact car”

Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American Bubble

The Reckoning
Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American Bubble (Permalink New York Times)
By MARK LANDLER Published: December 26, 2008
China, some economists say, lulled U.S. consumers and leaders into complacency about their spendthrift ways.

Amazon says 2008 holiday season was 'best ever'

Amazon says 2008 holiday season was its 'best ever,' with 6.3M items ordered on peak day
SEATTLE (AP) -- Amazon.com Inc. said Friday that the 2008 holiday season was the online retailer's "best ever," with more than 6.3 million items ordered and 5.6 million units shipped during its peak day on Dec. 15.
Amazon's upbeat take on the holiday season bucked the drumbeat of generally dismal news from retailers. Holiday sales typically account for 30 percent to 50 percent of a retailer's annual total, but rising unemployment, home foreclosures, the stock market decline and other economic worries led many shoppers to slash their shopping budgets this year.

(Comment TrendsBridge Team: Having the Fun twice. Convenient online shopping for what you want or need, and having the joy when it gets delivered. Nobody wants to go back to the Stone Age.)

Nouriel Roubini : The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since WWII

The recession will continue until at least the end of 2009 for a cumulative GDP drop of over 4%; the unemployment rate will likely reach 9%

Obama will inherit and economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollar in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed Funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise given price deflation while the value of financial assets is still plunging.
The world economy will experience a severe recession: output will sharply contract in the Eurozone, UK and the rest of Europe, in Canada, Japan, and Australia/New Zealand; there is also a risk of a hard landing in emerging market economies. Expect global growth – at market prices – to be close to zero in Q3 and negative by Q4. Leaving aside the effects of the fiscal stimulus China could face a hard landing growth rate of 6% in 2009. The global recession will continue through most of 2009.
The advanced economies will face stag-deflation (stagnation/recession and deflation) rather than stagflation as slack in goods markets, slack in labor markets and slack in commodity markets will lead advanced economies inflation rates to become below 1% by 2009.

Investeren in 2009

Het is altijd moeilijk om een gericht algemeen investerings advies of een voorspelling van de aandelenmarkt te geven. Elk jaar zien we weer die pogingen en soms blijken apen of dolfijnen gewoon goed of gemiddeld beter te zijn.

Individueel investeren is een kwestie van geloof, vertrouwen en vooral informatie. De aandelenmarkten zijn dit jaar wereldwijd met gemiddeld 45% gedaald, dus er is een behoorlijke smak geld verdampt.
Maar er zijn een aantal fundamentele waarheden, investeren doe je met het oog op winst, groei en de toekomst, en investeren in aandelen en bedrijven over het algemeen voor een periode van 1 tot 5 jaar.
Investeren in sectoren en markten doe je bij voorkeur voor een langere periode 3 tot 10 jaar, 'emerging markets' zoals China en India bijvoorbeeld.
Investeren in grondstoffen (commodities), is een riskante en hoog gespecialiseerde business en voor de gemiddelde investeerder niet haalbaar.
Investeren in edel metalen daarentegen (precious metals: silver, gold, platinum, palladium) is op individueel niveau wel haalbaar. Vooral in Goud is het gemakkelijk te investeren, goudrekeningen zijn bijna overal te openen , goudmijnen, fysiek goud (baartjes, munten), en opties zijn andere mogelijkheden.
De goudprijzen worden dagelijks vastgesteld (vraag en aanbod), het aanbod is beperkt (er worden weinig nieuwe goudmijnen geopend of grote goud voorraden gevonden), en in tijden van onzekerheid is het meestal een goede belegging, die echter geen direct rendement oplevert en soms ook geld kost, bewaarloon, bankkluis etc.
De Goudprijs is in 2008 even boven de $1000,- per troy ounce (ongeveer 31.10 gr) geweest, staat nu op rond de $850.- per troy ounce en voor 2009 wordt een verdere stijging tot weer ruim boven de 1000,- dollar verwacht.
Daarom is het geen gek idee een deel van de beleggingsportefeuille in goud te investeren.

Update 8 januari 2009
Why Commodity Bull Eric Bolling Is Short Gold
Posted Jan 08, 2009 07:30am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Eric Bolling, a former NYMEX commodity trader, believes massive government spending will devalue the dollar and ultimately benefit commodities.
"Across the board I like commodities: We have a President-elect who's going to come in a reflate the economy by printing money," says the Fox Business News host. "As the dollar goes down, things denominated in dollars - gold, platinum, wheat, soybeans, oil - have to go up in price."
So why does he recommend shorting gold, which most people think of as the classic anti-dollar play?
Bolling isn't anti-gold but believes the yellow metal has become overvalued relative to platinum; thus, he's currently short gold and long platinum via a paired trade. On Wednesday, gold fell 2% to $840 while platinum rose 1% to $971; historically, platinum has traded at a much higher dollar value than gold.
"This trade has a long, long way to go," Bolling says.

Een waarschuwing is wel op zijn plaats, wees niet te goed van vertrouwen!
In onzekere tijden en momenten van economische crisis schiet ook het aantal dubieuze aanbiedingen voor het investeren in Goud en andere edel metalen als paddestoelen uit de grond, er zijn nog een heleboel "mini Madoffs". Dus pas of voor 'Fools Gold'.

En verder voor beleggen in het algemeen is informatie van essentieel belang, kijk wat Warren Buffet doet, volg de internationale media, volg waar het Obama team mee op de proppen komt en wat de speerpunten zijn, en in principe gewoon goed bij de les blijven.

Goeroe's kun je meestal wel met een korrel zout nemen, waarom zou iemand die het allemaal zo goed weet, moeite doen om een column in een krant of tijdschrift te schrijven, een blog te maken of een nieuwsbrief te versturen? Een goede goeroe die het allemaal precies weet zorgt dat hij of zij het rendement maakt, en gaat vervolgens lekker ergens op een zonnig terras zitten en maakt zich verder niet druk toch?

Kersttoespraak 25 december 2008 Koningin Beatrix

Koningin Beatrix heeft op 25 december haar Kersttoespraak gehouden.
De toespraak ging vooral over de 'vergrijzing' en de toenemende kloof tussen de generaties, ergo de solidariteit. ("Open deuren en ouwe koek", volgens sommige toehoorders.) Opvallend is dat er met bijna geen woord gerept werd over het grote issue van deze tijd, de krediet crisis en de economische teruggang in veel landen als gevolg van de recessie.
De turbulentie op de wereldmarkten, de nieuwe Amerikaanse President en alle gevolgen die deze ontwikkelingen gaan hebben, zijn bij de top van Den Haag blijkbaar 'non-issues' , dingen van ondergeschikt belang of zaken waar beter maar niet al te veel ruchtbaarheid aan gegeven kan worden. Het is tenslotte Kerstfeest.
Of misschien gaat de recessie niet gelden voor het Koningshuis? Bij Koninklijk Besluit of zoiets?
Goede 'inside information' kan natuurlijk ook een oorzaak zijn.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

We wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
... and thank you for visiting our Blog!

And the recession won't last, although 2009 will be difficult.

Allemaal Prettige Kerstdagen en een Gelukkig Nieuwjaar toegewenst!
Bedankt voor uw bezoek aan ons (nog prille) Blog.

En... de crisis en recessie gaat wel weer over. Volgend jaar beter.

Het TrendsBridge Team

Weinig beweging op de Beurzen vlak voor de Kerst

Amsterdam, Woensdag, 24 december, 12.00 uur.
Deze laatste handelsdag voor de Kerst kenmerkt zich door een flauwe en lusteloze beurs met lage omzetten. Op de AEX hadden vanmorgen vooral de financiële waarden en met name Fortis het nogal te verduren. Nu het einde van het jaar nadert nemen de grote beleggers geen belangrijke posities meer in. De beurzen in Azië sloten met lichte verliezen.

Het eerste echte slachtoffer als gevolg van de Madoff fraude is gevallen, de Franse aristocraat Thierry de la Villehuchet (65) die voor ongeveer 2 miljard Euro in het Madoff fonds zat, heeft in zijn appartement in New York zelfmoord gepleegd door zich de polsen door te snijden. De betekenis hiervan moet niet onderschat worden als een alom gerespecteerd iemand dit vlak voor de Kerstdagen doet.
Tot nu toe vallen de gevolgen van de BMIS (Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities) affaire nog mee, er is nog geen sprake van 1929 verschijnselen.

De beurzen in Europa sloten op deze laatste -gedeeltelijke handelsdag voor de Kerst met lichte verliezen. Iedereen heeft er een beetje genoeg van en wil wat rust. Het lage handelsvolume op de beurzen van de afgelopen dagen is echter ook geen goed teken.

ECB voorzitter Trichet verwacht dat ergste ellende van de financiële crisis voorbij is, maar dat kan meer als economische 'peptalk' beschouwd worden dan als rationeel realisme. Er verschijnen namelijk steeds meer berichten dat de vooruitzichten voor 2009 ronduit slecht zijn.
Volgens een interview in De Telegraaf van vanmorgen met Premier Balkenende is het woord 'recessie' op Nederland nog niet van toepassing en moet Nederland onder zijn 'bezielende samenleiding': "Vooral op eigen kracht vertrouwen". Iets wat volgens ons ook wel het beste is want als je op hem en z'n soortgenoten moet vertrouwen komt er ook geen f... van terecht.
(Het zou ons niets verwonderen als we in 2009 weer nieuwe verkiezingen krijgen, een zekere 'balkenendemoeheid' is aan het ontstaan.)
Het is de tijd van het jaar voor terugblikken, eigen straatjes schoonvegen, verast zijn door de snelheid van de crisis, verontschuldigingen en voorspellingen.

De pre-market indicators voor Wallstreet duiden voor vandaag op een gemengde opening. Wallstreet heeft ook een verkorte handelsdag vandaag.

(15.15 CET) Werkloosheid in U.S. weer omhoog
The Labor Department reported that initial requests for jobless benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 586,000 in the week ending Dec. 20, from an upwardly revised figure of 556,000 the previous week. That's much more than the 560,000 economists had expected.That's also the highest level of claims since November 1982, though the work force has grown by about half since then.

Getting in line for the Bailout Funds.

Getting in line for the Bailout Funds, because 'the money is up for grabs'.

2008: The beginning of the Bailout
Worldwide bailout funds and Government help provisions are nearing a couple of trillion US dollars. There is a staggering amount of money involved, in the U.S. alone already 700 Billion dollar ($ 700.000.000.000,-), which is probably not enough.
If the USA, Europe, UK and Asia are counted all together it's going up to $3 Trillion (3000.000.000.000,-) or more.
What we are beginning to see now is more and more companies are asking for help. ("The money is available. So why not use it?")
First came Banks, the Financial Industry and Insurers, then came the Auto Industry, now the Housing Industry is getting in line.
Are Services, IT, Realtors, Manufactoring, Medical, Travel, Transport, Agriculture and Food Industries next in line?
When is Governemt beginning to ask for more money to sqeeze out the taxpayers because more (inefficient or nonproductive) bureaucrats are needed to handle the bailout requests?
Or will we get a whole new industry, the Bailout Specialists, -when all the money is gone they have to be bailed out themselves? (Like subsidy experts in certain European countries).

According to a recent CNN Poll most American think behaviour like Bernie Madoff is common and fraud occurs often in financial institutions, and that more government oversight is needed to stop it.
So, Wallstreet has a real image problem.
TIP: when your daughter comes home with "a banker for Christmas", get counseling!

We have not heard the well managed industries in the past 30 or odd years, when the 'CAN DO!' mentality and growth was the adage and money was to be made.

Is Hugo Chavez already getting hurt by the drop in Oil prices?

Chavez orders halt to construction of Caracas mall

"They had already built a monster there," Chavez said. "I passed by there just recently and said, 'What is this? My God!'" Hugo Chavez Profile on BBC.com

So the often-impulsive president told an allied mayor to halt construction and said this prime block of urban real estate should be expropriated. He said the sprawling six-story building might be put to better use as a hospital or university.The exercise in drive-by socialism illustrates Chavez's tendency to govern from his gut, and to leap in when he thinks other government agencies -- in this case city planners -- aren't doing their job. Read more of this story on Yahoo news..

El Mall más grande y divertido de Latinoamérica.
El Centro Sambil presenta a los visitantes una perfecta combinación de tiendas con amenas y divertidas opciones de entretenimiento, cines, restaurantes, terrazas al aire libre para disfrutar de música en vivo y de variados menús y mucho, mucho más...... 5 niveles con más de 500 comercios que se esmeran de hacer de cada visita una experiencia sin igual.

The 79th Geneva International Motor Show will be fuelled to the brim…

The 79th Geneva International Motor Show is a sell-out!

The automobile industry will be fully represented at the next Geneva International Motor Show in the spring of 2009. The organizers of the Show are delighted that all of the major automobile manufacturers will be exhibiting in spite of the alarming developments in the industry during the past few weeks. New for this year will be the special arrangement of Hall 3 to allow specialist exhibitors to present their latest developments in the area of electric and other alternative methods of propulsion.

Lithium and its uses for the auto industry

Andes Altiplano ( Map, MSN Encarta)

Pininfarina-Bollore BO electric car.

Our fascination with future related subjects drives us to delve deeper into the research of different areas, not immediately related to the Stock Market and the recession.


Will Bolivia be the Dubai of 2050?
If electric cars have a great future, then perhaps. In March, Bolivian President Evo Morales signed a decree setting up a lithium extraction facility on the Uyuni fossilised salt lake.
Most of the world's reserves of lithium carbonate are located in a tiny triangle located high in the Andes Altiplano, a remote, high desert region shared by Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Another rare and remote reserve is located high in the deserts of Tibet, now controlled by China. Smaller and declining reserves are found in Nevada and Australia.

LITHIUM - Statistics from U.S Government publication 2000.pdf
(Data in metric tons of lithium content, unless otherwise noted)

It is quite clear the next significant advances and breakthroughs in battery technology will come from nanotechnology.
E.V. Electric Vehicles and Fuel Cells is a real big market but until now nobody came up with a solution for the next 50 years.

The future battery (From the Battery University)
How much has the battery improved during the last 150 years? Compared to other advancements, the progress has only been moderate. A battery holds relatively little power, is bulky, heavy, and has a short life span. Battery power is also very expensive. The smaller the battery, the higher the cost-per-watt becomes. Yet humanity depends on the battery as an important portable power source.

The Saudi Arabia of Lithium

(From Forbes.com)
Nothing grows in the heart of the Salar de Atacama. this ancient Chilean lake bed 700 miles north of Santiago may be the driest place on Earth, a wasteland strewed with salt-encrusted rocks that resemble cow pies. Annual rainfall on the salar (which in Spanish means "salt lake") rarely tops a few millimeters. The cloudless skies combine with the high altitude, 1.4 miles above sea level, to produce punishing solar radiation, capable of frying exposed flesh in minutes.
Humans would steer clear of the Salar de Atacama were it not for the precious brine that bubbles 130 feet below its surface. When first pumped from the ground, the brine looks like slushy, dirt-stained snow, of the sort that piles up on Manhattan sidewalks after a spring flurry. But when left to broil beneath the desert sun, the water in the brine slowly evaporates, leaving behind a yellowy mineral bath that could easily be mistaken for olive oil.
This greasy solution yields the substance that makes modern life possible: lithium. The lightest of all metals, lithium is the key ingredient in the rechargeable batteries that keep cell phones and laptops humming. Chile is the Saudi Arabia of lithium. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, this single ancient lake bed contains 27% of the world's reserve base of the metal.

Until recently lithium was a minor commodity, used in small quantities by manufacturers of glass, grease and mood-stabilizing drugs. But demand has skyrocketed in recent years, as BlackBerrys and iPods have become middle-class staples. Between 2003 and 2007 the battery industry doubled its consumption of lithium carbonate, the most common ingredient used in lithium-based products.
The lithium bonanza may just be starting. Lithium-ion batteries are integral to the automobile industry's plans to wean itself off fossil fuels. The hotly anticipated Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid car slated to debut in 2010, will use a lithium-ion battery alongside a 1.4-liter gas engine. Mercedes plans to roll out a hybrid version of its S-Class sedan in 2009 and will similarly rely on lithium-ion technology to produce superior mileage. Nissan (nasdaq: NSANY - news - people ) is working with NEC to mass-produce lithium-ion batteries for hybrids, in hopes of churning out 65,000 per year by 2010.
Nothing grows in the heart of the Salar de Atacama. this ancient Chilean lake bed 700 miles north of Santiago may be the driest place on Earth, a wasteland strewed with salt-encrusted rocks that resemble cow pies. Annual rainfall on the salar (which in Spanish means "salt lake") rarely tops a few millimeters. The cloudless skies combine with the high altitude, 1.4 miles above sea level, to produce punishing solar radiation, capable of frying exposed flesh in minutes.
Humans would steer clear of the Salar de Atacama were it not for the precious brine that bubbles 130 feet below its surface. When first pumped from the ground, the brine looks like slushy, dirt-stained snow, of the sort that piles up on Manhattan sidewalks after a spring flurry. But when left to broil beneath the desert sun, the water in the brine slowly evaporates, leaving behind a yellowy mineral bath that could easily be mistaken for olive oil.
This greasy solution yields the substance that makes modern life possible: lithium. The lightest of all metals, lithium is the key ingredient in the rechargeable batteries that keep cell phones and laptops humming. Chile is the Saudi Arabia of lithium. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, this single ancient lake bed contains 27% of the world's reserve base of the metal.

Until recently lithium was a minor commodity, used in small quantities by manufacturers of glass, grease and mood-stabilizing drugs. But demand has skyrocketed in recent years, as BlackBerrys and iPods have become middle-class staples. Between 2003 and 2007 the battery industry doubled its consumption of lithium carbonate, the most common ingredient used in lithium-based products.
The lithium bonanza may just be starting. Lithium-ion batteries are integral to the automobile industry's plans to wean itself off fossil fuels. The hotly anticipated Chevrolet Volt, a plug-in hybrid car slated to debut in 2010, will use a lithium-ion battery alongside a 1.4-liter gas engine. Mercedes plans to roll out a hybrid version of its S-Class sedan in 2009 and will similarly rely on lithium-ion technology to produce superior mileage. Nissan (nasdaq: NSANY - news - people ) is working with NEC to mass-produce lithium-ion batteries for hybrids, in hopes of churning out 65,000 per year by 2010.



The Article: about Lithium and its uses is still being researched.

Something about the legendary Pininfarina Dynasty, you can find more on the Company website.

Battista “Pinin” Farina was born in Turin, November 2, 1893.
In 1961, the President of the Italian Republic, acting on a proposal made by the Minister of Justice, authorized the change of his last name to Pininfarina in consideration of his achievements in social and industrial activities.

Sergio Pininfarina, born: Turin, Italy, September 8, 1926
Graduated in mechanical engineering from the Polytechnic of Torino in 1950, he began his career in the family firm, “Carrozzeria Pinin Farina”; in 1960, he undertook the responsibility of General Manager of the firm; in 1961 he became also Managing Director and in 1966, at his father’s death, he took over the Chairmanship of the Company; in 2006 he became Honorary Chairman.

Andrea Pininfarina was born in Turin on 26 June 1957.
He graduated in Mechanical Engineering at Turin Polytechnic in 1981 and began his working career the year after, at the Freuehauf Corp. in the United States.
On the morning of 7 August 2008, on his way to work, Andrea Pininfarina was the victim of a tragic road accident. He leaves his wife, Cristina Pellion di Persano, and three children: Benedetta, Sergio e Luca.
As chairman of Pininfarina SpA, witness to the continuity within the company and the unity of the family, he is succeeded by his brother Paolo, and his sister Lorenza takes the position of Deputy Chairman.
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About the mineral Lithium and its uses.
We are not talking here about the medical use of Lithium, (Lithium carbonate--a salt--came to be regularly used to control manic depression in the 1960's. Today it is the most commonly used medication to treat bipolar disorder (manic depression).
But of the use of Lithium for batteries, and especially car batteries.

Lithium-Ion battery
A type of a battery composed of Lithium, the lightest metal and the metal that has the highest electrochemical potential. Lithium, however, is an unstable metal, so Lithium-Ion batteries are made from Lithium ions from chemicals. Because of its lightness and high energy density, Lithium-Ion batteries are ideal for portable devices, such as notebook computers. In addition, Lithium-Ion batteries have no memory effect and do not use poisonous metals, such as lead, mercury or cadmium.
Lithium is widely used in the battery industry, ceramic industry, glass industry, aluminum industry, lubricant, refrigeration, nuclear industry, optical electric industry, etc newly emerged fields.

The Global Market trade in Lithium is rather opaque. After the Second World War it became more or less a strategic material. The Chinese seem to have a great interest in Lithium and are active trading. The trade in used (lithium) batteries is gaining importance.
Opinions about the world's reserves of Lithium differ, there will not be an unlimited supply in the future. It is not the 'magic material' that will end all energy worries. For the automotive industry it is expected to become (or already is) of major importance.

Building a greener battery
Jan 20, 2009 filed under Fortune
Rechargeable lithium ion batteries power most portable devices yet one startup is trying to charge in with a more recyclable option.



China Seeks Lithium Resources in Qaidam Basin
The Qaidam Basin in northwest China's Qinghai Province, well-known for its salt lake resources, could quite possible to become the country's main lithium production base.
As a first step, the province will set up a company capable of producing 100 tons of lithium chlorate per year, near the Dong Taijnar lake.
A group of scientists from the Salt Lake Research Institute under the Chinese Academy of Sciences have successfully solved the problem of separating lithium from halogen solution, which contains s large concentration of magnesium.

Harry Markopolos saw inside Madoff scam 9 years ago and filed complaint with SEC

Harry Markopolos

Massachusetts investor saw inside Madoff scam 9 years ago, but few listened BOSTON (AP) -- His repeated warnings that Wall Street money manager Bernard Madoff was running a giant Ponzi scheme have cast Harry Markopolos as an unheeded prophet.

But people who know or worked with Markopolos say it wasn't prescience that helped him foresee the collapse of Madoff's alleged $50 billion fraud. Instead, they say diligence and a strong moral sense drove his quixotic, nine-year quest to alert regulators about Madoff.

"As the market goes up and down, this strategy should have done a little better or a little worse, just like everybody else," he said. "Instead, it appeared to be indifferent as to whether the market went up or down. They made money all the time."
Markopolos complained to the SEC's Boston office in May 1999, saying it was impossible for the kind of profit Madoff was reporting to have been gained legally.
But Madoff continued to thrive, even as Markopolos continued to pursue the case.
In 2005, he submitted a report to the SEC saying it was "highly likely" that "Madoff Securities is the world's largest Ponzi scheme." In the report, he says he knew his research could ruin people's careers and asked the SEC be discreet about circulating the report and his name.
"I am worried about the personal safety of myself and my family," he wrote.
The report highlights 29 "red flags" about Madoff's business, among them the returns of a third-party hedge fund managed by Madoff's firm which had negative returns in just seven on the 174 months Markopolos analyzed. Read whole article on Yahoo...

Markopolos Madoff Complaint

View SlideShare document or Upload your own.

Gaat Leterme onderuit na nieuwe ontwikkelingen in Fortis zaak?

Gaat Premier Leterme onderuit na nieuwe ontwikkelingen in Fortis zaak?

De federale regering zit sinds 16:30uur in een extra zitting bijeen op het kabinet van premier Yves Leterme (CD&V). Het is uitkijken of Leterme ontslag neemt na nieuwe ontwikkelingen in de Fortis-zaak.
Het overleg op het kabinet van de premier gaat uiterst moeilijk. Premier Leterme zou niet willen opstappen, en zeker niet alleen. Zijn partijgenoot, minister van Justitie Jo Vandeurzen (CD&V), zou zich wel willen opofferen, maar dat wil zijn eigen partij niet. De CD&V wil ook dat anderen zouden opstappen. In eerste instantie wordt dan naar minister van Financien Didier Reynders (MR) gekeken. Maar die weigert.

Liz Ann Sonders spoke to Maggie Rodriguez about the drop in global markets after the Dow Jones' 700-point plunge.

CBS Video link

Global Markets Spiral Downward
Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders spoke to Maggie Rodriguez about the drop in global markets after the Dow Jones' 700-point plunge.

An advance copy of Liz Ann Sonders' newsletter article from the December 2008, issue of Schwab Investing Insights®, a monthly publication for Schwab clients.

Food for thought: The last day of a bear market is always the first day of a bull market. Put another way, the day in the bear market when losses are most severe and despair is typically most extreme is also the day in the subsequent bull market when return opportunities are greatest. I don't know whether the November 20 equity market low will ultimately hold, but a new bull run entered the record books with a 21% rally in the S&P 500 as of December 8.
The drivers: larger-than-expected interest rate cuts globally; the coming fiscal stimulus plan from the Obama administration; exceptionally low cash yields; and the hope that we're sufficiently far enough through the recession to allow a market bottom to form. Volatility diverged from the market recently, too, not breaking out to new highs as the market sold off into the November low … a possible sign of sellers' exhaustion. Read more...

White House considers orderly Auto bankruptcy

Bush considering 'orderly' auto bankruptcy

White House press secretary Dana Perino said Thursday, “There's an orderly way to do bankruptcies that provides for more of a soft landing. I think that's what we would be talking about.”
She said the White House was close to a decision and emphasized there were still several possible approaches to assisting the automakers, such as short-term loans out of a $700-billion (U.S.) Wall Street rescue fund. Mr. Bush has resisted this approach before, and it is adamantly opposed by many Republicans.
She said one of the factors delaying an announcement on an auto rescue plan is the continuing discussion between the administration and the various sides that would have to sign on to a managed bankruptcy — entities such as labour unions and equity holders in addition to the companies themselves.
“If you thought that our economy today could handle the collapse of the American auto industry, then you might come to the conclusion that doing nothing was an option,” Ms. Perino said. “We're going to do something.”

The most important conclusion of 2008

It's not only a question of lessons to be learned from what happened in the World Economy and on the Stock Markets in 2008, but also a matter of conclusions to be drawn.
The most important conclusion just unexpectedly popped up last week when the Madoff story broke and this week when the effects of the Madoff maelstream begin to appear.

When 'very trusted people' (VTP) suddenly prove untrustworthy, people can begin to lose confidence in: authorities, a method or system, themselves or their fellow citizens.
This year we watched the failings and mistakes of: bankers, brokers, politicians, business leaders, bureaucrats, scientists, advisors, authorities and a lot more.
Even the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) failed to control and audit Madoff, although there were allegations of his financial wrongdoing since 1999. (See link beneath)
The latest results will ripple through and eventually calm will be restored, but it's worth thinking about the long term effects of loss of confidence and trust.
As a whole however, Investors and the Investment Community simply shrugg off the Madoff effect on the market, it is no more than a piece of rather shocking bad news. Next year the results will show or not. For the moment it only adds to the recession. And it all depends in how far the hedge funds will be hit.
Even the battered Fortis investors (in the Netherlands) do not seem to have sleepless nights after the news Fortis was hit by a possible 1 Billion Euro loss through the Madoff scam.
Anyway, the world has really changed in 2008! This is our preliminary conclusion by the way, an open door with unknown consequences and opportunities.

President-elect Obama says: 'Regulators have been asleep at the switch'.
This seems to be a common international problem we noticed.

See this link: Obama names 3 more for his financial team, says regulators have been 'asleep at the switch'

SEC chairman says agency failed to probe Madoff
December 17th, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) — In a stunning rebuke, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman blames his career regulators for a decade-long failure to investigate Wall Street money manager Bernard L. Madoff, now accused of running one of the largest Ponzi schemes ever.
On Tuesday night, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox ordered an internal investigation of what went wrong and offered a scathing critique of the conduct of his staff attorneys. He said they never bothered to seek a formal commission-approved investigation that would have forced Madoff to surrender vital information under subpoena. Instead, the staff relied on information voluntarily produced by Madoff and his firm.
Credible and specific allegations regarding Madoff’s financial wrongdoing going back to at least 1999 were repeatedly brought to the attention of SEC staff, said Cox.

Madoff scam victims weigh legal options (Reuters Video)

Madoff scam victims weigh legal options (Reuters Video)

Dec 16 - A stampede of victims seeks legal action against alleged Wall Street scam mastermind Bernard Madoff.
One lawyer preparing a class action suit predicts the flood of claims coming into his office will top 1 billion dollars Tuesday.

Opec agrees to record production cut, oil prices slip slightly

Opec agrees record oil output cut (BBC)
The oil producers' cartel Opec has agreed to make a record cut in output, slashing 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from its current supply.
Opec has made two other cuts since September, meaning it has cut a total of 4.2 million bpd in four months.
US light, sweet crude for January fell as low as $39.94 a barrel, its first time been below $40 since July 2004.
The falls were blamed on US inventories figures, which showed that demand for petrol in the four weeks to 12 December was down 2.7% from the same period last year.
The price later recovered slightly to trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $40.31, which was down $3.29 from Tuesday's close.

The OPEC also seems to be worried about the Economic Downturn

Press Release
The 151st (Extraordinary) Meeting of the Conference of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) convened in Oran, Algeria, on 17 December 2008, under the Chairmanship of its President, HE Dr Chakib Khelil, Minister of Energy and Mines of Algeria and Head of its Delegation, and its Alternate President, HE Eng José Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, Minister of Petroleum of Angola and Head of its Delegation.

Having reviewed the oil market outlook, including overall demand/supply projections for the year 2009, in particular the first and second quarters, the Conference observed that crude volumes entering the market remain well in excess of actual demand: this is clearly demonstrated by the fact that crude stocks in OECD countries are well above their five-year average and are expected to continue to rise.
Moreover, the impact of the grave global economic downturn has led to a destruction of demand, resulting in unprecedented downward pressure being exerted on prices, which have fallen by more than US $90 a barrel since early July 2008. Indeed, the Conference noted that, if unchecked, prices could fall to levels which would place at jeopardy the investments required to guarantee adequate energy supplies in the medium-to-long term.

In light of the above, the Conference agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels a day from the actual September 2008 OPEC-11 production of 29.045 mb/d, with effect from 1 January 2009, with Member Countries strongly emphasizing their firm commitment to ensuring that their production is reduced by the individually agreed amounts.

In taking the above decision, Heads of Delegation reiterated the Organization’s firm commitment to providing an economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations, as well as to stabilizing the market and realizing OPEC’s objective of maintaining crude oil prices at fair and equitable levels, for the future well-being of the market and the good of producers and consumers alike. With this in mind, the Conference renewed its call on non-OPEC producers/exporters to cooperate with the Organization to support oil market stabilization.

Fed Cuts Key Rate (16 Dec)

Fed, acknowledges that the recession is more severe than officials previously thought.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October fell to 1.7 percent. There is a higher risk from Deflation than from Inflation. The interest rates are on a record low now due to the Fed's latest rate cut.
The dollar dropped sharply against the euro and other major currencies, a sign that currency markets were nervous about a flood of newly printed dollars. UK Pound falls sharply against Euro, after signs of more rate cuts.
With all the new printed (created) money the currency markets are getting uneasy.

Fed Cuts Key Rate to a Record Low (Permalink NYT)
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and JACKIE CALMES
Published: December 17, 2008
Having reduced its key rate to a record low, the Fed said that it would use “all available tools” to fight the recession and downward pressure on prices.

Peak oil warning

Peak oil warning (2 minute Video Report from Reuters)

Dec 16 - UK companies warn government against an impending oil supply crisis.

A recent report from the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security warns that supplies of cheap, easily accessible oil will start to diminish by 2013.
The industry lobby group, which includes Virgin, Yahoo, Solarcentury and transport operator Stagecoach, wants the Government to dramatically increase investment in clean energy and renewables to avoid an energy crisis.

Follow up on the Madoff Fraud

Madoff investors burned by SEC, too
Regulators reviewed the fund and found nothing wrong. Hell-oo?! Plus, five ways to crook-proof your portfolio.

Money manager at center of scandal once advised government on protecting investors from scams

Alleged victims include the family charitable foundation for Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J.; a trust tied to real estate magnate Mortimer Zuckerman; and a charity of movie director Steven Spielberg. The Wall Street Journal reported that the foundation of Nobel laureate Elie Wiesel also took a hit.

{The name Madoff: (May-doff), as in (made off), with a long a not a short a like in mad.}

The Madoff case is expanding. Here is some sound advice about investing in 'exotic' and not easy to understand funds from a CNN Money and Fortune Magazine editor.

1. Don't invest in something you don't understand. The attraction of Madoff's investing philosophy was that he employed what is known as a "split-conversion" strategy.

OK. Stop right there. I would guess 99 percent of you reading this have no idea what that means. I didn't. I had to call a hedge fund manager who runs a very sophisticated computer-based derivative operation to explain it to me.

"It's not a magic bullet or a secret sauce," he told me. "It's no big deal, but there's no way to get the returns he did doing this strategy." After talking with him for a few minutes I can tell you this stuff is serious gobbledygook. Greek to us mere mortals. You want nothing to do with it. Avoid it like the toxic waste that it is.

2. There is no such thing as a free lunch. The beauty of Madoff funds is that they supposedly returned 1 percent a month, every month. Like clockwork. They consistently provided above-market returns with no volatility. They were just as safe as comparable funds, only with higher returns. Puh-leeze! That is a financial "push-me pull-you." An animal that doesn't exist.

3. Diversify. I know I know; that's Investing 101. Yet my poor neighbor had all of her retirement money in a Madoff fund. All of it. You just can't do that.

4. Don't stand for no or low disclosure. I was looking at my neighbor's "statements" from Madoff and they were ridiculous. Nothing in them. Just "balance at the beginning of period," "balance at the end" kind of stuff. Why bother with all the other numbers? What's the matter, you don't trust us? I did note the fund would only let her take money out twice a year. Nice.

5. Be wary of no-name operations. I'm not saying you couldn't lose your dough in a Fidelity or Vanguard fund or a Merrill brokerage account through fraud. But I will say it is much less likely. By many orders of magnitude. And if your money is in a bank under the FDIC minimum, well then, of course it carries a government guarantee. In the case of Madoff, folks would whisper, "I know this guy who does great. You've never heard of him, but he's better than everyone else." Yeah, right.

So there you have it. Yes, some of this is familiar stuff, but in these times, it bears repeating.

The Markets today (Dec 15 , 07.00 CET)

Asian Markets substantially higher this morning, European calls point to higher openings.
The Madoff case still trickling through, Investment banks in far East and Europe hit, (Japan, Spain, France, Switzerland). The situation is still opaque but the full effects of this scandal are expected to pop up in the beginning of next year. A few thousand of small and large investors are exposed.

The FED is lowering rates this week by a mere one quarter or one half of a percent.
ECB Chairman Trichet is warning about 'overspending' on the crisis, so do not wait for more ECB cuts for a while.
On the OPEC Meeting in Algeria (Dec 17th) substantial output cuts are expected to be announced. Crude Oil futures are up.
The White House will finally unveil the auto-industry's meager bailout package and emergency loans in the coming days.
Pre-market indicators for the U.S. point to modestly higher openings.
No trading in Fortis shares today after the decision of the Belgian Court late Friday.

The overall sentiment is, that investors do not seem to be deeply shocked by all the bad news or get depressed with the bad news on the horizon. You can't win 'em all. Cheer up! The champaign is bubbling. But don't drink and drive.

The Madoff Fraud, and the uncertainty

The story about Bernie Madoff's Ponzi Scheme is becoming pretty important and is getting a global impact with unknown effects.
In short, the New York financier and Ex-Nasdaq chairman Bernard L. Madoff was arrested last Thursday (Dec 11th) by the FBI on alleged securities fraud and running an illegal Ponzi Scheme. The total amount of damage could go up to 40 billion U.S. Dollar.
It is already rippling through the Global Financial World from the U.S.A to Europe (Switzerland) to Israël. Madoff was arrested after his own sons gave evidence to the FBI. Not only the wealthy and powerful are hit by this scandal.
Bernie Madoff was heavily involved with investments in the more than 1 Trillio Dollar Hedge Fund Industry.
Generally speaking: this could not have happened at a worser time for the global stock markets, and it makes people shiver at what more bad news is to emerge.
The last full trading week of the year could be one of high volatility.
On this blog we have already collected news and information about the Madoff case.
See these links.

The effect of the 'Madoff Mess' on the Markets


The Ponzi Scheme

Russia and its Economic woes

From La Russophobe - The Kremlin Panics

It’s hard to imagine a single act the Kremlin could take that would more conclusively demonstrate its total failure of economic policy, and its abject panic as a result, than to announce it is considering becoming a member of OPEC — which is exactly what the Kremlin did last week. Medvedev sounded like the Nazi hordes were at the barricades and it was Moscow’s 11th hour.
And maybe it was.
Openly admitting that Russia is fighting for its life, that its ability to sustain itself depends totally on the price of a commodity set by international markets, “President” Medvedev indicated he had no choice but to undercut Russian sovereignty still further by ceding the decision as to how much oil Russian can sell and when to the Arab petrostates.
By doing so, Russia would not only give up a massive amount of control over its own economic policy, it would burn its bridges with Europe and the United States, becoming a formal part of an organization which, subsequently, would be viewed no differently than the Warsaw Pact was during the cold war with the USSR.
And make no mistake: There is no “solution” in OPEC membership for Russia, only a desperate bid to delay collapse. Russia cannot afford to simply stop selling oil for long periods in order to bid up the price, as the OPEC nations can. Russia is not like them. It has a huge population that is desperately impoverished, and it is trying to wage cold war with the West through an arms race. Read the whole article from the La Russophobe Blog

Hoop voor Belgische aandeelhouders Fortis

Rechter stopt verkoop van Fortis

Het Hof van Beroep in Brussel heeft gisteren beslist dat onder meer dat 241,6 miljoen aandelen Fortis Bank die in de handen van de overheidsholding FPIM zitten voor 65 dagen bevroren zijn. De FPIM, die bijna 100 procent eigenaar is van Fortis Bank, moet met andere woorden, voor die periode 50 procent plus één aandeel in de bank behouden.
De rechtszaak was aangespannen door advocaat Mischaël Modrikamen met steun van ruim tweeduizend gedupeerde aandeelhouders. Hun aandelen Fortis waren door de acties bijna niets meer waard geworden. Ze verweten de leiding van Fortis dat het geen enkel besluit heeft voorgelegd aan de aandeelhouders.
De ontmanteling van Fortis is volledig stilgelegd. De aandeelhouders van Fortis mogen zich alsnog uitspreken over de verkoop van bedrijfsonderdelen aan de overheden van de Benelux. Dat heeft de Belgische rechter vrijdagavond in hoger beroep bepaald.
Volgens het Hof van Beroep in Brussel heeft de raad van bestuur van Fortis zijn bevoegdheden overschreden door aandeelhouders geen toestemming voor de verkoop te vragen. Ook hebben de overheden en toezichthouders 'onaanvaardbare druk' uitgeoefend op de raad van bestuur.

Detroit's Big Three's Problem is not the Pay, it's the Cars!

Economic Scene (New York Times Permalink)
$73 an Hour: Adding It Up
By DAVID LEONHARDT Published: December 10, 2008
The gap between the pay of Big Three autoworkers and workers at foreign-owned plants is less than it seems.

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People want a reliable car that brings them from A to B, in a fuel- and cost efficient way, safe and comfortable under almost any circumstances. But the car has to be there and stay in one part, on a wintery morning and on a hot August night. It has to be a useful item, like a watch or a computer. If American cars are great and the best for the price to get, people all over the world will buy them, if not, they won't buy them, there's enough choice all over the world.
In fact Henry Ford's idea has not changed, the world has changed.
The 'green aspect' is going to have an impact as a conscious status symbol as well.

The effect of the 'Madoff Mess' on the Markets

On Friday December 12 the news broke that the ex-Nasdaq Chairman Bernard Madoff was arrested and charged with operating a multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme from his investment advisory business.
The total amount of the fraud is yet unclear but can easily reach 50.- Billion U.S. Dollar which makes it a record amount ever for a Ponzi Scheme.
Bernard Madoff was heavily involved with the $1.5 Trillion hedge fund industry and had wealthy clients from all over the world.
It took a while before the news spread around but already rumors are circulating about funds that will be wiped out in the next future.
With the world stock markets in a shaky condition and the recession deepening we can expect in the days, weeks and months ahead, investors running for the exit and even some 'classic panic scenes' emerging.

This latest affair, 'The Madoff Mess' is beginning to raise seroius questions about the mental health of - generally- very trusted people like; finanicial authorities, stock brokers, bankers, advisors and so on.
Bernard Madoff, an Ex-Nasdaq chairman with obviously the status of a Very Trusted Person (VTP), simply turned out to be a fraud.
At the same time it raises questions about the mental health of the people trusting their money to him.
Good stuff for a book anyway: "The Financial World runned by a Bunch of Egocentric Lolly Loonies"

(Dec 14) Reports are circulating about Swiss Banks being hit for 4 Billion U.S. Dollar by the Madoff Fraud. A fair amount of wealthy and distinghuised instutions from the American East Coast are among the victims as well. The list of victims is growing, not only among the wealthy and powerful.

December 26. What drove Bernie Madoff? (Article on CNN Money)
An intense competitive streak may have fueled the flames of one of Wall Street's greatest frauds.
But inside was the drive of an intensely competitive person.
"There's a need to prove to the world that I am somebody powerful -- I am so intelligent," said psychologist Alden Cass, president of Competitive Streak Consulting, who has counseled and studied Wall Street personalities.


(Reuters) Madoff's alleged $50 billion fraud hits other investors

(CNN Money/Fortune)'Financial psychopaths' wreak havoc
The damage done in cases of Bernard Madoff and Marc Dreier doesn't end with investors.

Wall Street's Latest Downfall: Madoff Charged with Fraud (Time.com)
Bernard Madoff, the former Nasdaq chairman who was charged on Thursday with massive fraud, was long considered to be quirky. Employees at the offices of his eponymously named brokerage firm in midtown Manhattan's Lipstick Building had to follow strict rules for what they kept on their desk. Family photos were allowed but only if they were displayed in a simple black frame.

The Ponzi Scheme

Bernard L. Madoff, 'your friendly uncle'

The Ponzi Scheme is simular to a Pyramid Scheme. It's likely to stay around in good and in bad economic times. Investors should be cautious for investments or investment proposals promising very high yielding returns with little risk.

(From Investopedia)
A fraudulent investing scam that promises high rates of return at little risk to investors. The scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors. This scam actually yields the promised returns to earlier investors, as long as there are more new investors.

Investopedia Says... The Ponzi scam is named after Charles Ponzi, a clerk in Boston who first orchestrated such a scheme in 1919.
A Ponzi scheme is similar to a pyramid scheme in that both are based on using new investors' funds to pay the earlier backers. One difference between the two schemes is that the Ponzi mastermind gathers all relevant funds from new investors and then distributes them. Pyramid schemes, on the other hand, allow each investor to directly benefit depending on how many new investors are recruited. In this case, the person on the top of the pyramid does not at any point have access to all the money in the system.
For both schemes, however, eventually there isn't enough money to go around and the schemes unravel.

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The most recent Ponzi Scheme (still developing). It promises to become the worst in history, an ex-Nasdaq chairman accused of a $ 50 billion dollar Ponzi Scheme.
Ex-Nasdaq chair arrested for securities fraud
Bernard Madoff was arrested Thursday and charged with operating a multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme from his investment advisory business.

The Beurskrach blog will keep you updated, add to your favorites.

AEX weer in neerwaartse spiraal

(Amsterdam, 12 december, 12.15 CET)
Na de afwijzing van de Amerikaanse Senaat van het reddingsplan voor de drie grote auto fabrikanten in Detroit gaan de beurzen wereldwijd weer omlaag. Volgens de WallSteet Journal overweegt GM een faillissement en is al in contact met een grote gespecialiseerde advocatenfirma in New York.

De grote Beurzen in Azië sloten met verliezen van ongever 5% en ook de Europese beurzen staan rond het middaguur op fors verlies. Alle hoofdfonsen in het rood. De AEX 241.42 (6:28AM ET) Down 13.35 (5.24%)
Gevreesd wordt dat de 'slechtste geval' scenario's bewaarheid worden en de AEX op weg is naar een dieptepunt van 180 in de eerste helft van 2009.
Voor de Amerikaanse beurzen wordt vandaag een sterk lagere opening verwacht.

Automakers Bailout dead

Automakers Bailout dead, rejected by U.S. Senate

(Dec 12) The U.S. senate rejected the Automakers Bailout deal with a 52-35 vote, 60 short of the required amount of votes.
The bill failed after Republican demands to the United Auto Workers Union (UAW) to reduce wages.
The White House is considering a 'Plan B' next. Or will they wait till after the inauguration? Possibly too late for GM which is in desperate need of money.
Some Democrats asked for using TARP money, but this was rejected as the worst option as the loan would go to the auto companies with few or no requirements along with it.
The Senate does not want to give more bailout money to companies suffering from mismanagement and lack of marketing insight. According to The WallStreet Journal GM has already contacted a New York law firm for hiring bankruptcy managers.
Stock Markets worldwide dropping. U.S. markets point to lower openings.

Also on this blog: The new Car Czar

For a full coverage on CNN Money of DETROIT'S DOWNFALL, click on this link

Market Outlook for the rest of December 2008.

Market Outlook for the rest of December 2008.

An outlook and expectation for the stock markets for the rest of the year.
( Dec 11, Amsterdam 10.30 GMT +1)

With China having had its worst month for exports in 7 years in November it looks like Asian markets are getting more prudent and consolidating. Oil prices head up in Asia ahead of the OPEC meeting in Algeria on the 17th of December.
The OPEC which accounts for 40% of Oil Production in the world is expected to cut output by 2 million barrels per day.
Asian markets are lackluster for the moment and expected to sink again.

Companies are using the current crises to lay off more people. A number of large U.S. employers announced layoffs this week, including Dow Chemical Co., 3M Co., Anheuser-Busch InBev, National Public Radio and the National Football League. The U.S. auto-industry emergency loan plan is taking shape although nobody seems to know what to do next. It is a gigantic problem with dire consequenses.
Brokers and Banks are propping up balance sheets before year end. The recent end of November rally is running out of steam. More deep and dire economic news analysis is appearing almost every day.
We do expect the U.S. markets to go down before year end.
All eyes are on the Obama plan.

In Europe a rift is showing up between the 'Brownites' and the Germans with the almost paralyzed Dutch Government having no plan at all but still waiting for new information. ( A few snippets of news are sippling through about the Dutch Government becoming less wasteful with tax payers money).
The trend and outlook for European markets is negative.

The speed and impact of the current crisis on all levels of society spreading around the world, is really amazing and in some cases stunnishing.