152nd (Ordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna, March 15

152nd (Ordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference

Next OPEC Meeting in Vienna
Sunday, 15 March 2009
Vienna, Austria
http://www.opec.org/home/

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Monthly Oil Market Report, February 2009 (Download PDF)
The Monthly Oil Market Report contains a wealth of information, including developments in the world economy, data on oil prices, supply and demand, crude and product stocks and much more.

World Oil Outlook 2008 (Download PDF)
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2008 is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability and a means to highlight and further understand many of the possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead of the oil industry. The publication is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and others within the industry.

Russia and its Economic woes

From La Russophobe - The Kremlin Panics

It’s hard to imagine a single act the Kremlin could take that would more conclusively demonstrate its total failure of economic policy, and its abject panic as a result, than to announce it is considering becoming a member of OPEC — which is exactly what the Kremlin did last week. Medvedev sounded like the Nazi hordes were at the barricades and it was Moscow’s 11th hour.
And maybe it was.
Openly admitting that Russia is fighting for its life, that its ability to sustain itself depends totally on the price of a commodity set by international markets, “President” Medvedev indicated he had no choice but to undercut Russian sovereignty still further by ceding the decision as to how much oil Russian can sell and when to the Arab petrostates.
By doing so, Russia would not only give up a massive amount of control over its own economic policy, it would burn its bridges with Europe and the United States, becoming a formal part of an organization which, subsequently, would be viewed no differently than the Warsaw Pact was during the cold war with the USSR.
And make no mistake: There is no “solution” in OPEC membership for Russia, only a desperate bid to delay collapse. Russia cannot afford to simply stop selling oil for long periods in order to bid up the price, as the OPEC nations can. Russia is not like them. It has a huge population that is desperately impoverished, and it is trying to wage cold war with the West through an arms race. Read the whole article from the La Russophobe Blog

The Oil Price in 2009

First of all: Do not believe all the pundits, gurus and prediction reports about the development of the crude oil price. History has shown only about one in ten is right.
For instance: "Oil prices are likely to keep falling until well into next year and could reach $25 a barrel before recovering, US bank Merrill Lynch has said."
Merrill Lynch has slashed it's forecast for the average price per barrel to $50,- in 2009.
The Energy Information Administration reckons with a price of $63.50 in 2009.

What does OPEC want?
On their last meeting in Cairo they did not get an agreement about output cuts.
They realize however, the economic situation is deteriorating: Chakib Khelil, Algeria's oil minister and the group's president, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers noted "with concern the continued deterioration of the global economic situation and its impact on oil demand"
The ministers, he said in a statement, agreed to "take any additional action ... to balance oil supply and demand, and achieve market stability" during their Dec. 17 extraordinary meeting in Oran, Algeria.
The OPEC is a responsible organization, but their members simply need the money and the oil supply is not unlimited and renewable. Demand is strong and supply is limited.
Oil Prices are down because of the strong economic decline, but won't stay down. Opec will cut output!
The mighty Oil Companies will agree and support them, with an oil price below $50,- per barrel a lot of new exploration resources won't be interesting.

AP Interview: OPEC head warns of 'surprise' in oil output cuts, hints they may be deep
"A consensus has formed for a significant reduction of production levels" by the 14-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC President Chakib Khelil told The Associated Press.
The OPEC head would not discuss how deep the output cut would be, but said it could be "severe," and noted that some analysts are predicting cuts of as much as 2 million barrels per day.
An output decision that startles markets would help bolster plunging oil rates, Khelil said.
"The best way is to surprise them," he said. "I hope it (the decision) will."
Oil prices settled at a four-year low on Friday of $40.81 a barrel. In July, prices peaked at record highs above $140 a barrel.


Recommended reading.
The First Law of Petropolitics By Thomas L. Friedman
May/June 2006
Iran’s president denies the Holocaust, Hugo Chávez tells Western leaders to go to hell, and Vladimir Putin is cracking the whip. Why? They know that the price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions. It’s the First Law of Petropolitics, and it may be the axiom to explain our age.

Saudi targets return to $75 oil price

Saudi targets return to $75 oil price

CAIRO (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia on Friday identified $75 a barrel as a fair price for oil, the first time in years the world's leading crude exporter has cited a price target.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said oil prices needed to return to $75 to keep the more expensive new projects at the margins of world supply on track.
"There is a good logic for $75 a barrel," said Naimi. "You know why? Because I believe $75 is the price for the marginal producer. If the world needs supply from all sources, we need to protect the price for them. I think $75 is a fair price."

Update Latest News: The OPEC Cairo meeting has ended without announcing new cuts in crude output. The next meeting is in Algiers on the 17th of December where they will try to reach an agreement on further cuts in crude output.

Lower 2009 Oil Demand Forecast

OPEC Lowers 2009 Oil Demand Forecast for Third Month in A Row

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday lowered its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2009 for the third straight month, citing the downturn of highly industrialized economies. In its latest monthly oil market report, the Vienna-based organization forecast 86.68 million...