Is Buffett Insane?
November 28, 2008
In the midst of economic chaos, Warren Buffett recently made a bold prediction. He said that now is the time to buy American stocks. (Full Story on the Motley Fool)
Of course, this call seems utterly insane. Banks are failing, the credit markets are deadlocked, unemployment is skyrocketing, and there's likely to be terrible news for months.
On the other hand, this is Warren Buffett, and he's made these sorts of predictions before.
1974: Stagflation
The years 1973 and 1974 were two very bad ones for the market. OPEC had started flexing its muscles, causing oil to quadruple. This resulted in a long recession, with inflation spiking to 12.3% in 1974, while real GDP growth fell by 0.5%. America experienced stagflation -- the ugly combination of a recession and high inflation rates -- and people were terrified. The situation was even worse in the United Kingdom, where the government was bailing out banks after real estate crashed. Over those two years, the S&P 500 plunged by 42%.
It was then, on Nov. 1, 1974, at the height of the pessimism, that Buffett made his first well-publicized bullish market call. He noted that he was well aware that the world was in a mess, but that stocks were simply too cheap. "If you're only worried about corporate profits, panic or depression, these things don't bother me at these prices."
To be totally clear, Buffett made one of the most direct predictions of his entire career: "Now is the time to invest and get rich." Buffett himself was buying shares of The Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) and advertising agency Interpublic (NYSE: IPG).
(Comment from Trendsbridge: The circumstances are very different nowadays and History does not always repeat itself. But America is an Economic Powerhouse and a leading economic force, and there is no doubt they will get the present problems under control. The Bush years turned out to be quite messy and that's a main part of this situation.)
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