Nov 30th. The Stock Market, the week ahead

Black Friday turned out to be not as bad as expected, although steep discounts were given. Bargain hunting is trump this year. Tomorrow (Monday Dec 1st) is 'Cyber Monday' in the U.K.
The markets had a very good week last week, we can expect profit taking in the next days. The terrorist attack in Mumbai can have a profound psychological impact om the (Asian) markets as well. Torrow morning we can give more news and the latest updates.

When you want to get detailed financial information take a look at CNBC TV in the morning,

Wall St Week Ahead: Stocks eye dour jobs, shopping data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street may struggle this week to build on its best weekly performance in almost 30 years as investors grapple with a raft of economic data, including the November jobs report, that will likely provide more evidence of a deep economic downturn.
This week, investors will keenly watch retail sales to see if consumers opened their wallets and began buying gifts on Black Friday, as the day after Thanksgiving is known. It's the traditional start of the holiday shopping season and usually one of the year's biggest shopping days.
But this time, holiday sales forecasts are grim as the end of easy credit and rising unemployment have made consumers more frugal.
Wall Street ended last week's holiday-shortened run in the black, snapping a weeks-long losing streak as investors were encouraged by the U.S. government's bailout of Citigroup.

With the world becoming aware of the dangers of over-dependency on fossil fuels and volatile Oil Prices, uranium prices are going up.

Whether you like it or not it's a Fact. Even T. Boone Pickens has downsized his Wind Power plans.

RPT-Bay Street Week Ahead-Uranium readies for revival.

OTTAWA, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Uranium miners have found themselves with a hearty recipe for powering a stock market revival: rising prices for the nuclear fuel, strong demand, and supply disruptions. The only ingredient missing is investors.
The spot price for uranium UX-U3O8-SPT has surged 25 percent over the past five weeks, a performance unmatched by the stocks of companies in the uranium sector. From a basket of 56 stocks tracked by Haywood Securities, for example, 42 fell over the last week, three were unchanged, and just 11 saw gains.
"These companies are putting out news that is good for the supply and demand situation, but hurts the individual companies," said Dundee Securities analyst David Talbot.

U3O8 Weekly Spot Price Indicator
TradeTech's U3O8 Weekly Spot Price Indicator
The U3O8 Weekly Spot Price Indicator is TradeTech’s judgment of the price at which spot transactions for significant quantities of natural uranium concentrates could be concluded as of the end of each Friday. Published at the end of each week starting in TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review for March 8, 1996.

Goede tijden, slechte tijden op de Beurs

Meredith Whitney, the 'Runner'

"Goede tijden, slechte tijden"

De Tulpenbollen crisis van eind 16de- begin 17de eeuw was een van de eerste grote speculatieve crises.
Deze huidige crisis is eigenlijk gewoon een geldmarkt crisis, het onderlinge vertrouwen is weg. In oktober 2007 schreef de toen tamelijk onbekende Meredith Whitney (Oppenheimer & Co) een rapport over Citigroup Inc. In het - inmiddels legendarische rapport - constateerde zij dat de dividenden van Citigroup de verdiensten ver overtroffen en dat er dus iets mis was. Zij stelde dat de grootste bank van Amerika in feite gerund werd op weg naar de ondergang, Citi zou het eigen kapitaal moeten verhogen, bezittingen verkopen of het dividend moeten verlagen, bij voorkeur alle drie.
Toentertijd werd er door collega analisten en de pers niet veel aandacht aan geschonken. De Markt (de Beurs) gaf gewoon geen barst om wat experts dachten. Maar het verliep anders, "the market is not always right". In november 2007 begon het afboeken van 'securities' (waarborgen), $100 miljard om te beginnen. In februari van dit jaar volgde de tweede golf, $370 miljard en daarna ging de ene na de andere Amerikaanse Bank kopje onder of moest gered worden. Deze zomer begon de crisis zich razendsnel internationaal te verspreiden, Engeland, de EU en het Verre Oosten waren vanaf september aan de beurt.
Ondertussen bleek er van alles mis met het internationale financiële systeem en ontstond er min of meer een paniek situatie, de krediet crisis begon, de reddings plannen rezen de pan uit, de economische neergang deed zijn intrede, en de vergelijkingen met 1929 staken de kop op.

En Meredith Whitney? Zij is inmiddels een wereldnaam en loopt nog steeds haar trainingsrondjes in Central Park.

(Commentaar van de straat (main street): Een hoeraatje voor Meredith Whitney. Maar geen medelijden met banken, beleggers, effectenmakelaars, overheden, etcetera. Ze zijn vrijwel allemaal ziende blind geweest, "wie zijn billen brandt, moet op de blaren zitten!")

Has Warren Buffet's Magic gone?

Buffett magic gone? (01:53)Video Report
Nov. 28 - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has seen shares of his Berkshire Hathaway cut in half as investors fear the company could be hit with a big payout in the future.
Buffett's company has issued insurance policies for equity derivatives, that if values keep dropping, would result in payments which could total as much as $37 billion.

GM wants to sell, Pontiac, Hummer, Saab, and possibly Saturn

General Motors Corp. is studying possible elimination of some of its brands, with options including Pontiac, Hummer and Saab, the Free Press has learned.
A person familiar with the company's deliberations told the Free Press that all options are being considered as executives look at potential savings and devise a plan to submit to Congress in GM's bid for government loans to help it through a cash crisis.
In addition to the storied Pontiac brand, Hummer and Saab, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that the review included the Saturn brand.

Mumbay the 19 Million people city, does not seem to have heavy suffered from the turmoil of the terrorist attack.

Mumbay the 19 Million people city, does not seem to have heavy suffered from the turmoil of the terrorist attack.
Although there is huge damage to the landmark 'Taj Mahal Hotel' and the population is shocked, life is returning to normalcy. It is unlikely a long term effect on the Indian economy is inflicted. A short term effect on tourism and new business investments can be expected.
Many questions rise about security and the effectiveness of the Indian Forces.
The city is home to the Reserve Bank of India, the Mumbai Stock Exchange (SENSEX index), and a variety of other major financial institutions, and is a leading commercial and financial center. The government and service sectors are also important in the city's economy.
Numerologists and Astrologers consider the number 26 a bad Omen.
Reshuffling in politics as ministers take responsibility. Tensions are rising between India and Pakistan as long it is not clear if Pakistan is in some way involved.
The Pakistan Connection (Newsweek)
Evidence is still sketchy, but tensions are already rising between India and its nuclear-armed neighbor.


International / Asia Pacific (NYT Permalink)
India Faces Reckoning as Terror Toll Eclipses 170
By SOMINI SENGUPTA and KEITH BRADSHER - Published: November 30, 2008
As bodies were recovered, questions arose on whether the authorities could have anticipated the attack and improved security.

Attacks on India's financial capital not seen having long-term impact, though tourism and new investment will suffer.

For the latest news, see the Times of India

Mumbai siege turns political
(01:06) Report
Nov 30 - The political fallout begins as Indians count the cost of a three-day siege by Islamist militants in Mumbai. Home Minister Shivraj Patil submits his letter of resignation.

Dutch Innovation Day

Dutch Innovation Day - Dindag 16 december 2008.
Innovatiespecialist Roland van Kralingen is uw gastheer en brengt u op de hoogte van de laatste ontwikkelingen op innovatiegebied.

Strong Black Friday sales up a surprisingly 3.0 Percent compared to 2007.

Not all bad News, nov 30th. Strong Black Friday sales up a surprisingly 3.0 Percent compared to 2007.
Retailers have to slash prices and offer huge discounts.
News from ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago-based research firm that tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets. Black Friday sales are not always the best indicator for the rest of the Christmas shopping season but give reason for some cautious optimism early in the season this time.


29 Nov RETAILERS FACE MELTDOWN AS CHRISTMAS NEARS
The economic bloodbath that has impacted all sectors of the American economy hit retailers hard during the last month, just as they were gearing up for the make-or-break Christmas selling season.
Of the 26 retail categories surveyed by America’s Research Group for our Consumer Mind Reader™ survey, only three saw increases over last year’s shopping levels.
Discount stores enjoyed consumer spending levels rising from $195.80 last year to $203.95 in this survey. Consumers also spent more at national department stores and hardware stores.
Categories that were especially hard-hit by the recessionary habits included apparel stores, catalog sales, and toy and jewelry retailers. Even the Internet, which had remained steady and even showed some growth, was not immune to the economic woes. Web shopping levels declined steeply, from $46.22 a year ago to $27.73 in this survey.

Recessie in detailhandel nog niet merkbaar, Sinterklaasverkopen stijgen

De Sinterklaasverkopen stijgen met 2 procent ten opzichte van vorig jaar.
De Sinterklaasverkopen stijgen met 2 procent ten opzichte van vorig jaar. Dat zegt de Nationale Winkelraad van MKB-Nederland. Met het laatste weekeinde voor 5 december nog voor boeg wordt een uitgave van ongeveer 831 miljoen euro verwacht.Opvallend is dat consumenten later inkopen dan vorig jaar en minder impulsief. Er wordt doelgerichter en bedachtzamer gewinkeld, waarbij hoge bedragen worden uitgegeven. Betalen gebeurt meer dan ooit met PIN in plaats van met cash. Als cadeau zijn vooral laptops, navigatiesystemen en mp3 spelers in trek. Voor kinderen staan Lego en multimedia op één. De kredietcrisis verandert vooral het uitgavenpatroon op de lange en middenlange termijn. Huizen en auto’s worden minder snel gekocht. Maar voor de decembermaand laat hij zich geen crisis aanpraten. Voor de kerstinkopen wordt een zelfde stijging verwacht.

"The Blame Game"

Hypocrisy, Sour Grapes and Political Gain for Dummies, "The Blame Game"

(From Reuters) QUOTES: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed the West for the global financial crisis on Saturday, saying other countries were being dragged in to help resolve Western problems.
The Iranian president, who often rails against the West, said the capitalist era had come to an end and said the world should adopt a new system based on "religious, spiritual and non-usury" principles.
"The capitalist bloc imposes its standards unilaterally on others," he said. "While it prices its goods by itself, it determines the prices for the commodities of other nations to secure its own interests by using deceptive economic ploys"...

Shalva Chigirinsky (New Russian Billionaire and owner of what was to be the tallest building in Europe). His firm had run out of money, he admitted.
"Say thanks to [former US federal reserve chairman] Alan Greenspan and George Bush," Chigirinsky told Reuters last night, adding that since the financial crisis in the US it was impossible to get any credit".

(Editors Comment: I guess they're a bit pissed off, with the oil price down from $160,- to $55,-. Anyway it's a wake-up call for the oil junkies to look for some other kind of speed.)

With the world in financial turmoil the Mumbai terrorists clearly wanted a 9/11 style attack

With the world in financial turmoil the Mumbai terrorists wanted a 9/11 style attack in India to shock and destabilize the world.

Moment, method, style and timing point to a deliberate attack to create an 'Indian 9/11'.
The terrorist were very well prepared and trained, had set their targets, and knew the layouts of their targetted locations.
Attackers were motivated and their logistics were all set to a determination for a days long seige and struggle.
They must have had inside information and outside help (unproven).
The attack on the Jewish Center and the taking of Westerners as hostages implicates they wanted to reach 'a maximal effect'. Britsh-born Pakistans were among the attackers.
Atmost two hundred people killed and at least 300 wounded, 17 Indian Police men among the victims. The count for victims is still going on.

International / Asia Pacific (New York Times Permalink)
Mumbai Terrorist Siege Over, India Says
By SOMINI SENGUPTA and KEITH BRADSHER - Published: November 29, 2008
Indian commandos took control of the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower in Mumbai after a lengthy assault, the head of the commando unit said in a news conference.

Saudi targets return to $75 oil price

Saudi targets return to $75 oil price

CAIRO (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia on Friday identified $75 a barrel as a fair price for oil, the first time in years the world's leading crude exporter has cited a price target.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said oil prices needed to return to $75 to keep the more expensive new projects at the margins of world supply on track.
"There is a good logic for $75 a barrel," said Naimi. "You know why? Because I believe $75 is the price for the marginal producer. If the world needs supply from all sources, we need to protect the price for them. I think $75 is a fair price."

Update Latest News: The OPEC Cairo meeting has ended without announcing new cuts in crude output. The next meeting is in Algiers on the 17th of December where they will try to reach an agreement on further cuts in crude output.

Stores court shoppers on Black Friday

Stores court shoppers on Black Friday

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shoppers turned up early for holiday sales at stores on Friday, but the annual pilgrimage appeared thinner this year and many consumers vowed to spend less due to a shrinking economy.
Retailers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc to Macy's Inc, Kohl's Corp and Best Buy Co Inc opened their doors in the early hours of "Black Friday," offering steep discounts to scores of shoppers who waited in line.
In the New York City suburb of Valley Stream, a man working at a Wal-Mart died as a throng of shoppers broke down the doors trying to enter a store, police said. Four others were injured and taken to the hospital in what the company called a "tragic" incident.
Most stores offer major discounts on Black Friday, the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, hoping to ring in billions of dollars through year's end. Some chains opened during the holiday on Thursday to capture business even earlier.
Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with NPD Group, said that early store traffic appeared about 25 percent lighter than a year ago. People seemed to be more selective about the shops they visited and weren't staying inside stores as long.

CNBC Video-Black Friday Retail Outlook
An outlook on the holiday shopping season, with Gerald Storch, Toys R Us chairman/CEO and Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group

Market Sentiment November 28th (06.30 CET)

Asian Markets slightly up, China Markets modest rises on rate cut. Mumbai seems not very impressed by happenings of past days, Sensex slightly down.
European Markets expected to be a bit nervous and a volatile low volume.
(19.45 CET) Wallstreet in shortened session extends 5 day winning streak with moderate gains.Have a nice Weekend!

Foster's Russia Tower falls victim to credit crisis

Foster's Russia Tower falls victim to credit crisis

The British architect Norman Foster became the latest high-profile victim of the global economic crisis yesterday when developers in Russia said they were scrapping plans to build his design for Europe's tallest skyscraper.
Moscow's 600-metre high Russia Tower, which was supposed to dwarf Canary Wharf in London, would no longer be constructed, real estate magnate Shalva Chigirinsky said. His firm had run out of money, he admitted.
"Say thanks to [former US federal reserve chairman] Alan Greenspan and George Bush," Chigirinsky told Reuters last night, adding that since the financial crisis in the US it was impossible to get any credit.

Foster and Partners official website

24 hrs after Al Qaeda style terrorist attack in Mumbai battle still going on

More than 24 hours after the Terrorist Attacks in the Mumbai Financial District the battle is still going on. An unknown number of hostages is being held, chaos and confusion in Mumbai. More than a 125 people confirmed dead (among them Indian Police Officers) and at least 350 people wounded. It seems the terrorists are deliberatly picking out Westerners as hostages. 10 locations in Mumbai attacked, also a Jewish Center.
According to the Hindu Times the mayor of new York has given out an alert for New York subway system.

Gunmen 'still holed up in Mumbai' (BBC News)

About "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday

Black Friday is the Friday after Thanksgiving in the United States. It is also the beginning of the Christmas Shopping Season, and since many employees take the day off it is usually a busy day for shops and shopping. Retailers often open early and have special deals for shoppers.
With the recession beginning to show this year it looks like an 'all or nothing' event for retailers. For some of them there is a lot at stake, their survivability depends not only on having the biggest, boldest Black Friday sales they've ever had. They also wish to extend the critical holiday shopping season till far after Christmas.
The bad news is that this could be the worst holiday shopping season on record.
The good news is this time for consumers (shoppers) hunting for bargains, could however be the best time ever. So if you want this huge new flat-screen or the latest gadget, be patient and take a look around.

Retailers on Black Friday, Red or Black?

Cyber Monday immediately follows on Black Friday. It's the beginning of the shopping season in Great Britain.

Falling Oil Prices a heavy hitter for Russia's Economy

November 26th, 2008
Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell for the first time in 10 years in October, the Kommersant newspaper reports, citing the Economic Development Ministry.

Combined with other news released this week, including higher inflation outlooks and growing job losses, the data suggested that the Russian economy was heading deeper into a full-on economic crisis.
The World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have also slashed their estimates for Russia’s 2009 GDP growth. The OECD, which cut their estimate from 6.5 to 2.3%, said that falling oil and resource prices were to blame, as well as receding capital markets. Oil has dropped to around $50 per barrel, down from an all-time high of $147 in July.

The downside risk to China's economy is increasing, and some economic indicators deteriorated in November, said China's top economic planner on Thursd

China facing bigger economic downside risk

(Chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-11-27 11:49
The downside risk to China's economy is increasing, and some economic indicators deteriorated in November, said China's top economic planner on Thursday.
The troubling status quo of the country's economy has driven top policy-makers to work day and night, with Premier Wen Jiabao presiding over up to four State Council meetings in a week.
Zhang Ping, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said during a press conference in Beijing Thursday that the central government has meted out a breakdown of the 4-trillion-yuan fiscal stimulus plan. The majority of the investments will be channelled to infrastructure projects, rural residents' medical care and pensions, technological renovation, environment, and tax cuts for businesses and individuals.
Deepening economic woes worldwide are casting a larger shadow on China, the world's fastest growing major economy. Some major economic indicators have shown evident signs of worsening since the beginning of November. Although Zhang did not detail those indicators, analysts said they include the gross domestic product (GDP), exports, capital investments, and the consumer price index (CPI).
China's GDP slowed to 9 percent in the July-September period, down from 9.9 percent in the second quarter. Many economists predict that the growth for the last quarter of 2008 could tumble to as low as 6 percent.
The worst has yet to come as the global financial crisis has not bottomed out, Zhang admitted.

Ouderwetse retail legt het loodje ("Woolies" over and out)

In de UK -waar de recessie nu echt begint te bijten- is gisteren het 99 jaar oude Woolworth (Woolies) failliet gegaan.De schulden bedragen £ 385 miljoen ( € 455 miljoen.) De koers van de aandelen is dit jaar met 99% gedaald. Dat betekent tienduizenden ontslagen en 815 filialen met sluiting bedreigd. Grote gevolgen bij de toeleverings bedrijven en in de onroerend goed (winkels) sector.
Volgens analisten is dit de eerste maar zeker niet de laatste in een reeks, na de Kerst worden de volgende tikken verwacht.
De moedermaatschappij van Woolworth blijft voorlopig intact.
MFI, woninginrichting etc moet er ook mee stoppen.

Zie: Woolworth into administration

Indian Stock Exchanges closed, due to the Terrorist Attacks

Due to the terrorist attacks of yesterday in the Financial District of Mumbai, the Indian Stock Exchanges are closed today.
Other Asian Markets had a modest rally.
U.S. Markets closed today.
European Markets extend Wallstreet's rally.

Update Mumbai Terrorit Attacks: Terror attacks in Mumbai; six foreigners among 101 dead. (Times of India)


Bombay Stock Exchange - BSE website provides information on SENSEX and other indices, stock quotes, Market trend and analysis, Company Information, ...


National Stock Exchange of India (NSE)
India securities market information, including real time graphs, information.


Mumbai, Mumbai India, Mumbai Map
Are you looking for detailed info on Mumbai India? Find everything you wanted to know about Mumbai in this section. It provides info on Mumbai’s rails, ...

EU 200 Miljard Euro herstelplan trapt voornamelijk open deuren in

Het gepresenteerde herstelplan van de Europese Commissie trapt feitelijk alleen open deuren in en roept vooral de vraag op of José Manuel Barroso nog wel de juiste man is om de EU te leiden.
Investeren in: Scholing, Lagere administratieve lasten, Infrastructuur, Energiebesparing en promotie van 'groene producten', evenals het snelle Internet,etc. Het lijkt meer op een lijstje van 10 jaar geleden dan op een herstelplan voor de ergste economische crisis van de 21ste eeuw. Gemiereneuk, ongeïnspireerd en geen spoortje van een grote visie (Grand Vision) en bovendien qua bedrag volstrekt ontoereikend (dat is ook een open deur). Maar als de geldverslindende Brusselse bureaucratie in deze omstandigheden niet met iets beters op de proppen kan komen dan is het wellicht tijd om die hele boel maar versneld af te schrijven, iets wat veel mensen in gedachten allang gedaan hebben.

Attacks in Mumbai in Financial District, Westerners targeted

Multiple attacks in Mumbai, 80 dead and hostages taken (Reuters)

MUMBAI (Reuters) - At least 80 people were killed in attacks apparently aimed at tourists in India's financial capital Mumbai on Wednesday night, and television channels said Westerners were being held hostage at two five-star hotels.
At least 250 people were wounded in the series of attacks, police said. Local television channels said the army had begun moving into one of the hotels, the Oberoi, containing hostages.
Apart from the hotels, attackers also targeted the Cafe Leopold, perhaps the most famous restaurant and hang-out for tourists in the city, as well as hospitals and railway stations.
"I guess they were after foreigners, because they were asking for British or American passports," said Rakesh Patel, a British witness who lives in Hong Kong and was staying at the Taj Mahal hotel on business. "They had bombs."

Terror attacks in Mumbai; 80 dead, over 900 injured (India TIMES

Mumbai: In one of the most violent terror attacks on Indian soil, Mumbai came under an unprecedented night attack as terrorists used heavy machine guns, including AK-47s, and grenades to strike at the city's most high-profile targets -- the hyper-busy CST (formerly VT) rail terminus; the landmark Taj Hotel at the Gateway and the luxury Oberoi Trident at Nariman Point; the domestic airport at Santa Cruz; the Cama and GT hospitals near CST; the Metro Adlabs multiplex and Mazgaon Dockyard -- killing at least 80 and sending more than 900 to hospital, according to latest reports. ( Watch )
The attacks have taken a tragic toll on the city's top police brass: The high-profile chief of the anti-terror squad Hemant Karkare was killed; Mumbai's additional commissioner of police (east) Ashok Kamte was gunned down outside the Metro; and celebrated encounter specialist Vijay Salaskar was also killed. ( Watch )

Situation in Mumbai grave, says Maharashtra CM
MUMBAI: Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh on said the situation was "grave" in the terror-hit Mumbai and asked the Centre to provide more security forces to deal with the situation.
Deshmukh said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress
President Sonia Gandhi called him and expressed concern over the attacks.

CNN-IBN NEWS: ARMY STORMS HOTEL TAJ, GUNBATTLE ON

The European Commission launches a major (200 Billion Euro) Recovery Plan for growth and jobs

The Commission launches a major (200 Billion Euro) Recovery Plan for growth and jobs, to boost demand and restore confidence in the European economy. Press Release 25 Nov 2008)

The European Commission has today presented a comprehensive plan to drive Europe's recovery from the current economic crisis. The Recovery Plan is based on two mutually reinforcing main elements. Firstly, short-term measures to boost demand, save jobs and help restore confidence. Secondly, "smart investment" to yield higher growth and sustainable prosperity in the longer-term. The Plan calls for a timely, targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus of around €200 billion or 1.5% of EU GDP, within both national budgets (around €170 billion, 1.2% of GDP) and EU and European Investment Bank budgets (around €30 billion, 0.3% of GDP). Every Member State is called upon to take major measures good for its own citizens and good for the rest of Europe. The Recovery Plan will reinforce and accelerate reforms already underway under the Lisbon Growth and Jobs Strategy. It includes extensive action at national and EU level to help households and industry and concentrate support on the most vulnerable. It puts forward concrete steps to promote entrepreneurship, research and innovation, including in the car and construction industries. The Recovery Plan aims to boost efforts to tackle climate change while creating much-needed jobs at the same time, through for example strategic investment in energy efficient buildings and technologies.

Thursday November 27th, U.S. Markets closed.

Wednesday Nov 26. Tomorrow the Stock Markets in the U.S.are closed due to Thanksgiving Day. Many people will go on holiday or for a long weekend, so Friday the markets will be rather quiet. Today the markets in Europe are on profit-taking after the recent strong rallies (13.30 CET). The U.S markets are expected to open lower today, U.S Pre-Markets from CNN
Reports: Stocks head for moderately lower open following rally; Street awaits report on jobless claims
Update 21.00 CET: U.S. Markets substantially higher building on recent rallies. Investors seem to be unimpressed ahead of the holiday by bad reports about the economy.

The imminent risk of a Market Collapse and a further Meltdown is probably not due before March or April 2009.

The risk of a Market Collapse and a further Meltdown is probably not due before March or April 2009. (Editorial Trendsbridge Team, November 26th, 2008)

The inauguration of President Barack Obama is on the 20th of January.
He will come up with an excellent team, but they have to clean up a terrible mess. It will take some time before results are shown. More bad economic news will show up in or just after the 1st quarter of 2009, the banking (financial) sector is far from healthy, and it takes some time for a new spirit to emerge.
As with any new President he will face unprecedented political (geo-political), and in his case economic challenges in his first 6 months.
High volatity in the markets can be expected.
From now on (end of November) and for the next 3 months we do not expect a real meltdown, but some bear rallies (in bull's clothes) and 'dead-cat jumping' markets.
The downward potential for the Dow Jones (DJIA) is something like 5000 or 6000, and we expect this to be reached in the first half of 2009, with a difficult and erratic climbing upwards through 2009 and the beginning of 2010.
On our site http://www.beurskrach.com we will keep the Beurskrach Indicator for the time being at 55%.

Warning: Of course this can all be wrong and turn out to be very different, but that's Life. There are almost 7 billion people on this Planet and nobody can read all their minds.

Detroit's Come Back Cars

Detroit's Come Back Cars

If Chrysler, Ford and GM can get through their mess, these are the products they hope will pull them out to the other side.

Ford Mustang
Among the Big Three automakers, Ford Motor Co. is thought to be the strongest financially. That may be one reason why Ford is the only one to roll out significant new models at this year's Los Angeles Auto Show.
The redesigned Ford Mustang may not be the most advanced car the automaker revealed in L.A. but it will likely turn the most heads.

Chevrolet Camaro
Like the Mustang, the Camaro reminds us that there are still exciting, uniquely American cars that only Detroit can credibly market. While General Motors needs to step into the future with vehicles like the Chevrolet Volt, it still needs to maintain this important emotional connection.

Chrysler electric vehicles
When you think of the ultra-clean, electrically driven future of personal mobility, a four-door Jeep Wrangler probably isn't what comes to mind.
But this Wrangler is driven by a system similar to the Chevy Volt's. It will drive on battery power for up to about 40 miles. As the battery runs low, a gasoline engine will start up to generate more electricity.

Life insurers seek aid to stabilize investments

Life insurers seek aid to stabilize investments


By Lilla Zuill - Analysis
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Life insurance companies, nervous over massive investment losses that could ultimately threaten their viability, are hoping they are next in line to get a piece of the U.S. financial bailout.
They argue federal funds could stabilize their trillions in investments and warn that any failure of a life insurer could dry up a key source of corporate financing.

But U.S. officials are not convinced.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday he had not yet decided whether other insurers would get federal funds. The only insurer to get government help so far is American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which was saved from bankruptcy with a rescue package that has ballooned to $152 billion.
As the biggest buyers of U.S. corporate bonds, life insurers say they grease the wheel of corporate America. Industry officials insist the failure of a large U.S. life insurer would drastically shrink bond financing, potentially creating another hurdle to the nation's economic recovery
Analysts warned that the fourth-quarter outlook for the sector is even gloomier, with growing concerns that their investments in commercial mortgages will lead to more red ink as values drop.

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which sells both life and property insurance, reported a $2.6 billion quarterly loss on October 30, the 189-year-old insurer's worst-ever result, mainly from bad investments in financial companies.
Prudential Financial Inc (PRU.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the No. 2 U.S. life insurer, had a $108 million net loss, and withdrew its 2008 earnings forecast, citing market volatility. Genworth, a smaller insurer, recorded a $258 million net loss.

Dow Jones U.S. Life Insurance Index

Vermogen Nederlandse beleggingsfondsen verder gedaald

Vermogen Nederlandse beleggingsfondsen verder gedaald

Nieuwsbericht details Datum 19 november 2008 (DNB)
Het fondsvermogen van de onder toezicht staande Nederlandse beleggingsfondsen is in het derde kwartaal van 2008 met EUR 6,4 miljard (8 procent) gedaald als gevolg van afwaarderingen van de beleggingen en netto onttrekkingen door beleggers, zo blijkt uit cijfers van de Nederlandsche Bank.
De belangrijkste component hierbij was het forse koersverlies op aandelen van 11 procent (grafiek), in lijn met de wereldwijde daling van aandelenkoersen (MSCI World-index: -12 procent). Doordat ook nog andere factoren een rol speelden, zoals de verplaatsing van fondsen naar Luxemburg, daalde het fondsvermogen tot EUR 71,7 miljard. Door afwaarderingen en onttrekkingen nam het in vijf kwartalen - sinds het uitbreken van de financiële onrust - af met 28 procent.


Statistisch Nieuwsbericht De Nederlandse Bank

Google CEO Eric Schmidt To Step Down?

Google CEO Eric Schmidt To Step Down?

While Google's market capitalization tanks and the company launches its first wave of cost-cutting, CEO Eric Schmidt is devoting much of his public-speaking time to pressing for green-energy stimulus plans and discussing the auto industry bailout. Technology, Media & Telecom Analyst speculates that this is because he is getting ready to take a position in the Obama Administration. We have no inside knowledge here. We would, however, note that, having grown Google to $20 billion in revenue over seven years, Eric has certainly earned the right to take a break. We would also note that there are many other reasons why this might be a good time to exit stage left (although a year ago, when the stock was at $700, would have been a much better time)

The text above is from Sillicom Alley Insider's Newsletter.
The link is to Henry Blodget's page on the Sillicon Alley Insiders website | November 25, 2008 5:17 AM. It still seems to be a rumor, but on the Internrt it's already appearing on rather important sites.

Economy's tumble in the summer worse than first thought as consumers slash spending

Economy's tumble in the summer worse than first thought as consumers slash spending

The updated reading on the economy's performance, released Tuesday by the Commerce Department, showed the gross domestic product shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter.
That was weaker than the 0.3 percent rate of decline first estimated a month ago, and marked the worst showing since the economy contracted at a 1.4 percent pace in the third quarter of 2001, when the nation was suffering through its last recession.
American consumers -- the lifeblood of the economy -- slashed spending in the third quarter at a 3.7 percent pace. That was deeper than the 3.1 percent cut initially reported and marked the biggest reduction since the second quarter of 1980, when the country was in the grip of recession.
Consumers are hunkering down amid job losses, tanking investment portfolios and sinking home values, which are making them nervous about spending.

Mari Yamagiwa Solo Show in Monkdogz Urban Art Gallery (New York)

Mari Yamagiwa In Monkdogz Urban Art Gallery in Chelsea (New York) from Dec 17th 2008 - Jan 18th 2009.
While you are in New York this Christmas Season and walk around in the Chelsea district don't forget to visit the Solo Exhibition "INSTINCT" of the promising young Japanese Artist Mari Yamagiwa at the Monkdogz Urban Art Gallery. Her works (paintings and mixed media) are very original and a great investment in original and Contemporary Art.
The Show is from December 18th 2008 untill January 17th 2009,in the Aperture Building on West 27th St in Chelsea.
You are invited for the Opening Reception on Decenber 6th from 6 to 8 pm, to see the paintings, have a drink and talk about all the marvellous things to happen in 2009.

A collection of Mari Yamagiwa's Works can also be found at:
Kunstjaar: http://www.kunstjaar.nl/html/specials.html
Art-Represent:http://www.art-represent.com/html/mari_yamagiwa.html
VirtualGalleries-World: http://www.virtualgalleries-world.com/html/mari_yamagiwa.html

Economic Slump May Limit Moves on Clean Energy

World (Perma Link - New York Times)
Economic Slump May Limit Moves on Clean Energy
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL Published: November 25, 2008
A poor global economy and plunging prices for coal and oil are upending plans to curb the use of fossil fuels.

Amerikaanse Banken nog lang niet uit de problemen

Volgens de analyst van Friedman Billings Ramsey, Paul Miller, heeft het Amerikaanse financiële systeem nog 1 tot 1.2 biljoen dollar nodig om uit de gevarenzone te komen.
Als een bank geliquideerd wordt dan moeten bij verkoop de bezittingen en het kapitaal meer opbrengen dan de schulden, en deze verhouding is bij (Amerikaanse) banken totaal zoek.
Hij baseert zich op een analyse van een achttal banken en financiële instellingen:
Citigroup Inc
Morgan Stanley
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
Wells Fargo & Co
JPMorgan Chase & Co
American International Group Inc
Bank of America Corp
GE Financial
Gecombineerd hebben deze acht ongeveer 12.3 biljoen in bezittingen en 406 miljard dollar in kapitaal, of slechts 3.4%.
Dat is een zeer ongezonde verhouding, te meer daar veel van de onderliggende
bezittingen, vooral in het onroerend goed en de huizenmarkt niet veel meer waard zijn.
Op het moment hebben de banken in de VS 0ngever 37 biljoen dollar uitstaan.
Daarom is de redding van de banken en financiële instellingen op het moment van groter belang dan hulp aan de 'Big Three' in de autoindustrie.
Bron: Why the banks need stronger medicine

Wat staat ons verder nog te wachten van de Banken, wereldwijd, en waarom zijn Soros, Blanchard en Roubini etc zo pessimistisch?

How fast will GROWTH return?

... and how will it be FINANCED?

Tax cuts?
More lending?
Frugal Governments?
Innovation?
Better ideas?
Higher taxes for high earners?
Or will it be a combination or consensus?

Obama: Costly stimulus needed to jolt economy

Obama: Costly stimulus needed to jolt economy


Presentation of Economic team.

CHICAGO (Reuters) - President-elect Barack Obama promised on Monday to jolt the faltering U.S. economy with a costly stimulus package next year and introduced the team that will help him navigate the global financial crisis.
Obama, who warned again that the economy would likely get worse before it got better, declined to put a price tag on the two-year stimulus proposal which other Democrats have estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars.
Obama said his team was already working on the details of a package to save or create 2.5 million jobs and urged the next Congress to act on it immediately in early January.
Timothy Geithner, 47, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, will become Treasury secretary, and Lawrence Summers, 53, a former Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, will be director of the National Economic Council.
President-elect Barack Obama has chosen Christina Romer, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, as the head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Advertisers slashing budgets due to economic downturns.Bad news for mobile sites,

Mobile advertising answers questions about its future
November 7, 2008 — 11:01am ET | By Jason Ankeny
One third of marketers plan to slash their advertising budgets this year to account for the economic downturn, according to a recent survey conducted by the Association of National Advertisers, and three prominent industry forecasters--Barclays Capital, Myers Publishing and Wachovia--predict ad spending for traditional media outlets like TV, radio, magazines and newspapers will decline even further in 2009. While none of that bodes well for the immediate future of mobile advertising, there seems to be little doubt the mobile platform offers an increasingly viable promotional channel: Consumer research issued by mobile community provider Limbo and market analysis firm GfK Technology states mobile ad awareness increased 33 percent during the first nine months of 2008, compared to just six percent growth in overall mobile phone usage.


Google Finally Gets A "SELL" Rating!
Finally, we've reached the first real sign of a bottom in Google's stock price: A sell-side analyst now rates the stock "SELL." Most of the Street is still bullish, so we probably need a few more frustrated sorry-I-blew-you-up downgrades before we reach the bottom, but this is definitely encouraging. Merriman Curhan Ford analyst Richard Fetyko, via Barrons: "Click volume and search ad pricing are under pressure, and so we are initiating coverage with a Sell rating. Google is likely to be among the first to rally as the economy stabilizes; however, near term, we see downside to consensus estimates and believe that investors will get a better entry point in the next six months."

European Stock Markets racing higher on Citi bailout

24/11 Monday
Stock markets in Europe were very bearish on the news of Citigroups rescue plan.
The FSTE 100 up nearly 10%
The DAX and the CAC 40 up more than 10%
Amsterdam AEX also up more than 10%
See Market Summary at Yahoo

Gold and Oil closing higher as well

UK Pre-Budget Report 2008. Gain a precise view fom Deloitte.

Chancellor Alistair Darling has announced that he will deliver his 2008 Pre-Budget Report on 24 November, at 15.30.
What the Deloitte experts say.
Opinions and commentary from Deloitte experts and our fellow specialists.

More...

FT.com / In depth / UK Pre-Budget report 2008
prebudget chancellor treasury 2008, pre-budget statement, prebudget statement, Alistair Darling.

HM Treasury - Pre-Budget 2008

Brown Borrows Big to Kickstart British Economy (CNBC)

Prime Minister Gordon Brown tries to kickstart the stalling British economy on Monday, spending billions of borrowed pounds on tax cuts in a bid to stop a recession turning into a slump.
The package, expected to total up to 20 billion pounds ($30 billion), will include extra public spending designed to grease the wheels of the economy.
Brown's finance minister, Alistair Darling, is also expected to announce plans to plug the hole in state finances by raising taxes in future, including a political shift in the form of a sharp rise in income tax for high earners, media reports say.

Citi Group Bailout

It finally happened. The huge U.S. Citigroup is rescued by the Government (TARP) with a $20 billion rescue package. Government guarantees for Citi's $300 billion troubled assets, securities and loans backed by commercial real estate and other assets.

Anyway, a few more trillions are needed to restore the whole economy and clean up the whole 'bleeping' mess. Sooner or later you'll 'get used' to trillions.
So how will capital markets react? What is the outlook for long term inflation? How about the unexpected deflation trend? The oil price will not stay low forever, and what are commodities going to do? And how about the Gold price, will there be a panic flight to the relative safety of a timeless asset?
And how about Politics and ('holistic') hindsight, has Bush actually fallen into Bin Laden's trap?
The more knowledge (facts emerging) the more questions!

Citi dodges disaster
The troubled bank secures an additional capital injection from the U.S. government and guarantees on troubled assets.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The U.S. federal government on Sunday announced a massive rescue package for Citigroup - the latest move to steady the banking giant, whose shares have plunged in the past week.
The plan has two key features:
First, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will backstop some losses against more than $300 billion in troubled assets.
Second, the Treasury will make a fresh $20 billion investment in the bank. The government has already injected $25 billion into Citigroup as part of the $700 billion bailout passed by Congress in October.
In return for the latest intervention, the government will receive an additional batch of preferred shares - $20 billion for its direct investment and $7 billion as compensation for the loan guarantees. Citigroup will pay an 8% dividend rate on those shares.

Nikkei up. Europeam markets upbeat(10.30 CET) U.S. Markets expected to go down after Friday's Geithner euphoria. U.S. Pre-market indices mixed but point to higher opening.

U.S. asking help for hundreds of billions of dollars from rich Gulf states.

Still awaiting more details on the whole story... This is it, more or less the whole story from biz.yahoo, no use to repeat,just click on the link.

Government plans massive Citigroup rescue effort
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rushing to rescue Citigroup, the government agreed to shoulder hundreds of billions of dollars in possible losses at the stricken bank and to plow a fresh $20 billion into the company.

Short-Term Energy Outlook

The current U.S. and global economic downturn has led to a decrease in global
energy demand and a rapid and substantial reduction in crude oil and other
energy prices. As a result, projections for both energy demand and prices are
considerably lower than last month’s Outlook.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) prices are expected to average $63.50 per barrel in 2009 (Crude Oil Prices)

Download Full Report (PDF, November 12, 2008 Release

Ignore the Stock Market Until February

Ignore the Stock Market Until February
by Andy KesslerFriday, November 21, 2008
provided by The Wallstreet Journal

Down in the morning, up in the afternoon. Or is it the other way around? The topsy-turvy stock market is tough to read.
In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has briefly been over 13,000 and below 8,000. The past month has felt like the Cyclone roller coaster on Brooklyn's Coney Island -- lots of ups and downs, the whole rickety thing feeling like it's going to crash at any minute.
Great investors are taught to listen to the market. Each tick of the tape has something to say about expectations for growth, inflation, policy changes and looming recessions. The stock market is like a giant mass of pulsing plasma doing price discovery and a game of hot potato, getting stocks into the correct hands with the right risk profile. It's way too big for any one person to manipulate, let alone touch directly. Instead, millions of us provide input with our buying and selling decisions.
When it's at its most efficient, with buyers and sellers neatly matched up at the right price, it's a pretty good predictor. The Crash of 1929 announced a recession, and the wake-up call unheeded might have caused many of the bad policies leading to the Great Depression. The Crash of 1987? Not so much.
You see, the market is a great manipulator. In September, the Dow dropped 700 points intraday after the House of Representatives voted down the Treasury's TARP bank-rescue bill. Spooked, the House passed the bill the next week. Or how about this? The Dow was up 300 points on Election Day applauding an Obama victory and then down 1,600 points since. Read more...

Time for some Fun, Click here: US Presidential Campaigning, Funny Movie

The Dutch Economy: A Unique Window of Opportunity

The Netherlands is very well positioned to make a good start for a shift to a 21st Century sustainable economy, but it's a matter of changing mentality, and stimulating a creative flow.
With the looming recession and the slowly waking up of the Dutch Government to the thread of a slowdown and rising unemployment, an awareness of a unique window of opportunity for the 'low countries' is beginning to take shape.
But it will mean less tulips, cheese, wooden shoes and antique windmills.
Not the end of nostalgia.

The entire European Commission's World Energy Outlook to 2050 in PDF form. Released in 2006. Explores different energy resources and ideas.

[PDF] - International Energy Agency - Energy to 2050 -- Scenarios for a Sustainable Future

Map of the Netherlands

Russia's banal reality lies in between energy superpower and bankrupt state

Russia's banal reality lies in between energy superpower and bankrupt state
Russia has been losing $10bn in foreign reserves a week since it snatched South Ossetia and ramped up the new Cold War with nuclear threats.
A fifth of the Kremlin’s fire-fighting fund has gone before the economic crisis even starts. Would the Medvedev-Putin duo have provoked the West so nonchalantly had they known that global recession would soon cut the price of Urals crude oil to $49.35 a barrel, knocking away the chief prop of Kremlin finance and Russian power?
The pace of capital flight quickened last week to $16bn after a botched mini-devaluation by the central bank. Tinkering with currency bands is hazardous in a country where memories of the 1998 savings wipeout are still fresh.
The Kremlin already faces a run on Russia’s banks as depositors rush to switch their roubles into dollars, despite the $200bn financial rescue package. Russia’s Globex bank suspended withdrawals by depositors on Wednesday. Kommersant newspaper reports that the deposit loss from rouble accounts reached 54pc at Sobinbank in October, 27pc at Globex, 25pc at Raiffeisenbank, 24pc at Unicredit, and 22pc at Alfa.

Olivier Blanchard (IMF Economist) said the crisis should last for another year, but normal growth would return only in 2011.

Olivier Blanchard (IMF Economist) said the crisis should last for another year, but normal growth would return only in 2011.
ZURICH (Reuters) - The financial crisis that has engulfed many top banks is spiraling into a broader economic crisis that has yet to peak, International Monetary Fund's top economist Olivier Blanchard told a Swiss newspaper on Saturday.
Blanchard said the crisis would continue for another year and called on governments to promote fiscal expansion and on central banks to cut rates toward zero.
"The worst is yet to come," he was quoted as saying in Finanz und Wirtschaft as he noted how the banking sector's woes had started to spill over into the real economy by hitting the carmaking industry.
"This is only the beginning," he added. "The risk exists that the data will get worse and worse, which would then lead to more pessimistic expectations and accelerate a fall in demand."
"It will take a long time before we go back to normal conditions."


Obama economic plan aims for 2.5M new jobs by 2011
Saturday November 22, 12:36 pm ET
By Will Lester, Associated Press Writer
Obama economic plan focuses on job creation, public works projects, alternative energy sources
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President-elect Barack Obama promoted an economic plan Saturday he said would create 2.5 million jobs by rebuilding roads and bridges and modernizing schools while developing alternative energy sources and more efficient cars.
"These aren't just steps to pull ourselves out of this immediate crisis. These are the long-term investments in our economic future that have been ignored for far too long," Obama said in the weekly Democratic radio address.
The goal is to get the plan quickly through Congress, with help from both parties, after Obama takes office Jan. 20. The plan, which envisions those new jobs by January 2011, is "big enough to meet the challenges we face," he said.

Report: Soros says more needed for US bailout
BERLIN (AP) - American investor George Soros said he would like to see Washington put $300 to $600 billion more into the $700 billion U.S. economic bailout package, the German magazine Der Spiegel reported in an advance of Monday's edition.
The weekly quoted the billionaire as saying that the United States needs a bigger economic program than the existing Troubled Asset Relief Program package to accommodate American cities and states with the money they need to get out of the financial turbulence, and that the country needs an infrastructure investment program.
Soros also criticized U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson for not seeing the economic crisis earlier.
Paulson "reacted to the problem once it was already out in the open. He didn't have the ability to see the problem coming," Soros was quoted as telling Der Spiegel.


Balkenende presenteert plan voor economie
DEN HAAG (ANP) - Het kabinet komt met een pakket van maatregelen om de economie te ondersteunen. Dat heeft premier Jan Peter Balkenende vrijdag gezegd. Het gaat onder andere om een tijdelijke WW-uitkering voor werknemers die tijdens de economische tegenwind overbodig zijn.
Naast deze zogeheten werktijdverkorting kondigde Balkenende verder aan dat de overheid bedrijven gaat ondersteunen door rekeningen voor verleende diensten eerder over te maken aan ondernemers. Bovendien mogen zij investeringen versneld afschrijven. Bedrijven kunnen op die manier gemakkelijker nieuwe investeringen doen.

Spam en 419 Scams

Nu er een zekere teruggang in de economie duidelijk te merken is neemt ook het aantal scams (oplichters praktijken per email)toe. Op onze site Spam-Boycot houden wij dit al ruim een jaar lang in de gaten. Onbegrijpelijk dat de mensen nog steeds in de scams trappen. Deze scam van het zgn. ICPC NIGERIA (Anti-Fraud Unit)......we fight against fraud, funds delay and impersonation is echter wel bijzonder brutaal.

U vindt meer voorbeelden op:http://www.spam-boycot.com/html/crooks_and_creeps.html
en; http://www.spam-boycot.com/html/scammers.html

President-elect Obama surrounds himself with pragmatists instead of idealogues

President-elect Obama surrounds himself with pragmatists instead of idealogues
It looks like Barack Obama is planning to govern from the center-right of the Democratic Party.
He will probably ask Robert Gates to stay on (for a year or so) as Defense Secretary as well as some of the more seasoned troop commanders like Gen. James L. Jones, the former NATO commander as National Security advisor. This is not confirmed!
This might not be a bad idea as long as the Iraq and Afghanistan situation continues.
With Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary and Larry Summers as Senior Economic Advisor it looks like the best of both worlds.
And with Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State he gets somebody with a star like quality, a good inside knowledge and very powerful influential friends. She will get, however, a very challenging task, to restore trust and confidence in America and upgrading its status in the world is no minor job.

(Trendsbridge Team Comment: It's a well-known strategy. He does the same as in his time with the Harvard Law Review, he looks for the best people to do the job.)

U.S. / Politics (New York Times Permalink)
Obama Vows Swift Action on Vast Economic Stimulus Plan
By JACKIE CALMES and JEFF ZELENY
Published: November 23, 2008
Barack Obama offered the outlines of a plan to create or save 2.5 million jobs by investing in public works and alternative energy.

Latest news

Citigroup stock slides below $4 a share
Friday November 21, 11:12 am ET - By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Citigroup stock slides below $4 a share as bank reportedly mulls whole or partial sale
NEW YORK (AP) -- Citigroup Inc. shares extended their precipitous slide Friday, after an initial lift from a report that said the banking giant was considering a sale to rebuild investor confidence.
The New York-based bank is scheduled to hold a board meeting Friday to discuss whether to sell all or part of itself, the Wall Street Journal reported.


Business
Green Inc.: Environmentalists Speak Out on Auto Bailouts
By By James Kanter
Published: November 21, 2008
Detroit’s Big Three car companies went to Washington this week seeking $25 billion to shore up their parlous balance sheets while the European Automobile Manufacturers Association has called for a bailout that could be even larger – 40 billion euros. Now environmentalists also are stepping into the debate and proposing some criteria of their own.

PAN Amsterdam art and antiques fair in upbeat mood

PAN Amsterdam art and antiques fair in upbeat mood

(The paintings are from Ellen de Groot - http://www.helenadegroot.com
These are to be found at Galerie Mokum - http://www.galeriemokum.com )

Helvoirt, 23 October 2008 – These are stirring times. And that also goes for the art and antiques trade, which seems to have a degree of resilience to fluctuations in the economic climate. The higher segment in particular is proving to be a reliable alternative to many classic forms of investment, with an added advantage—enjoyment. It is true that the 128 exhibitors at the fair are looking forward to PAN Amsterdam with some trepidation, but also with their own infectious optimism. They will be doing everything in their power to make PAN Amsterdam—the art and antiques fair of today—an event that no art-lover or collector can miss. Top items include an excellent scene of Rotterdam harbour, a book once owned by William of Orange and a painting by Botero. The Geef om Cultuur Foundation will be launched during the fair. PAN Amsterdam runs from 23 to 30 November in the RAI Parkhal in Amsterdam.



Press Release PAN Amsterdam 2008 English (Download)
Pers Bericht Pan Amsterdam 2008 Nederlands (Download)

ABN en Fortis samen verder

ABN en Fortis samen verder
21 november 2008, 15:40 uur | FD.nl
Fortis Bank Nederland en ABN Amro gaan samen verder. Het verzekeringsdeel van Fortis wordt apart verkocht. De voormalig VVD-minister Gerrit Zalm wordt topman van de nieuwe bankcombinatie.
Premier Jan Peter Balkenende zei vrijdag na afloop van de ministerraad dat het kabinet 'één nieuwe, sterke bank' wil optuigen die de komende jaren in handen van de overheid blijft. 'De aangekochte verzekeraars worden daarin niet geïntegreerd.'
Balkenende wilde niet bevestigen dat Zalm bestuursvoorzitter wordt van de bankcombinatie. Hij verwees naar een toelichting die minister Wouter Bos van Financiën vrijdagmiddag zal geven op het besluit over de genationaliseerde bedrijven Fortis en ABN Amro.

Ford Might Be the Winner if the Auto Bailout Fails

The reason is that Ford alone among the Detroit Three has enough dry powder to get through what will be a very difficult 2009, when car sales aren't expected to top the 11.8 million units sold this year. (In 2007, 16 million cars and light trucks were sold.) General Motor's Wagoner and Chrysler's Nardelli made it pretty clear that without a government bridge loan — $12 billion in GM's case, $7 or $8 billion for Chrysler — there isn't going to be a 2010 for these companies, at least not without a pit stop in bankruptcy. Chrysler ended its third quarter with $6.1 billion in cash — but it's burning through $1 billion a month.

Special Extra: From La Russophobe: The Final Countdown on the Russian Stock Market

Special Extra: The Final Countdown on the Russian Stock Market

The Russian market has lost all crediblity as the result of so many arbitrary, panicked closures by the Kremlin (on average, two every week since August), especially since they have been useless in halting the slide, revealing the Kremlin to be impotent. Shockingly, the value of the ruble has remained totally stable this week, but only because the Kremlin has now spent nearly $60 billion of the Russian people’s vital nest egg, almost $1 billion each and every day, creating artificial value for the nation’s currency to stave off even more intense consumer price inflation. Consumer price inflation has already topped a sickening 12%, and the year is not even over yet. The old Russian bugaboo, unpaid wages, has again reared its head, with arrearages increased by a horrifying 33% in October.

Amsterdam 21 Nov 2008. We are beginnnig to gather resources and track what's actually happening in this mysterious country a few thousand miles east of us. We read of course about the panic closures of the stock market and we saw something on TV of Russian billionaires losing lots of money. But it is still a research item.

MICEX (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange Rates)

Market update 09.15 CET

Asian Markets up from 5 years low, Nikkei up almost 3%.
Rate cutting rumors and short covering.
European Markets up, following Asia. Today Triple Witching Day. Oil prices rebound modestly.
Pre-market indicators point to substantial higher opening U.S. markets.

Google Stock Quotes

Amsterdam, 16,45 CET.I almost could not believe my eyes.
The almighty Google in a slump.

De opleiding of omscholing van een langdurig werkloze kost ruim een half miljoen. Een dure business met een geringe kans van slagen.

Banen voor langdurig werklozen worden duur betaald. Een succesvolle reïntegratie - de bemiddeling van een werkzoekende naar een betaalde baan - kost de gemeenschap netto ruim een half miljoen euro. De kans op werk stijgt door de reïntegratie-inspanningen met slechts 3 procentpunt.

Dat blijkt uit onderzoek van het College voor Stedelijke Innovatie van het kenniscentrum Nicis Institute. Voor het eerst is de prijs van een geslaagde bemiddeling becijferd.
Gemeenten kregen vorig jaar 1,5 miljard euro voor de reïntegratie van bijstandsgerechtigden. Van de 90 duizend beëindigde cursussen resulteerden er 21 duizend in een baan (23 procent). Gemiddelde kosten per baan: 69.000 euro.

Op eigen kracht
Als echter degenen die op eigen kracht werk zouden hebben gevonden, niet worden meegeteld, bedragen de kosten volgens het Nicis 537.000 euro. ‘Zonde van het geld', vindt Jouke van Dijk, hoogleraar Regionale Arbeidsmarktanalyse in Groningen en penvoerder van het ongevraagde advies.

Wóów, dat is een klauw geld. Geen wonder dat de belastingen hier zó hóóg zijn en dat er zó véél ambtenaren zijn!

20 November, 09.45 CET (Amsterdam) De markten update

Het ziet er weer niet zo best uit vandaag, de AEX op dit moment bijna 3% in de min, alle Europese beurzen 2% tot 3% onderuit. In Amsterdam de financials weer lager, alleen Ahold op dit moment hoger.
De Aziatische beurzen ook fiks in de min, de Japanse export loopt terug dus Tokio bijna 7% lager gesloten. In China ook weer nervositeit.
Hoewel op het ogenblik de pre-market indices voor de Amerikaanse markten niet alarmerend laag staan, verwachten we daar ook weinig goed nieuws.
De FED ziet de economische omstandigheden in 2009 verder verslechteren (de Fed ziet eindelijk wat iedereen ziet).
De bailout of het reddingsplan van de grote 3 auto fabrikanten is nog (voorlopig of nooit?) niet rond en er is daarvan dus ook geen stimulans te verwachten.
Ook de Europese auto-industrie en wat daarmee verwant is begint steeds meer noodkreten te slaken, maar dat wist iedereen al.

De PAN Amsterdam opent deze week, koop eens wat kunst, brengt op lange termijn mogelijk meer op dan Bank aandelen.

Verder werken we aan een special over Rusland, maar dat is nog in de researchfase.

Gedoogbeleid Softdrugs R.I.P?

Het geroemde én verguisde gedoogbeleid in Nederland heeft zijn langste tijd gehad, dat vindt het CDA. De partij spreekt vandaag op een partijcongres over hat softdrugsbeleid. Fractievoorzitter Van Geel zegt dat steeds meer mensen en partijen beseffen dat hat romantische beeld van stickies rokende mensen die voor zichzelf produceren achterhaald is. Het gaat volgens hem om harde business en criminelen die grof geld verdienen over de rug van kwetsbare groepen.

Het CDA en de PvdA hebben in het regeerakkoord afgesproken dat er niets wordt veranderd aan het gedoogbeleid tijdens deze regeerperiode. Van Geel zegt dat hij het liefst zou zien dat alle coffeeshops dichtgaan, maar dat hij zich aan het regeerakkoord zal houden. In het akkooord staat wel dat coffeeshops in de buurt van scholen worden gesloten en dat shops bij de grens worden tegengegaan.

Wat heeft dát nou met de Beurskrach te maken? Heel veel zoals in de toekomst zal blijken. Er gaan miljarden om in de illegale handel. Er er worden miljarden verspild in de opsporing, al tientallen jaren. Het is een sociaal-economische en sociaal-psychologische kwestie.

Oil rises on OPEC cut talk, wider market gains

Oil rises on OPEC cut talk, wider market gains
Reuters -Published: Tuesday, November 18, 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as part of a wider market rally and as OPEC mulled cutting oil production again to stem a slide that has sent prices to 22-month lows.
U.S. stocks rose as computer maker Hewlett-Packard's reassuring quarterly results and an upbeat profit forecast tempered worries about the global economic slump and uncertainty about aid for U.S. carmakers.
U.S. crude rose 49 cents to $55.44 a barrel by 12:10 p.m. EST (Nov 18), after earlier dropping to $54.13, the lowest level since January 2007.

Solar company announces bid for General Motors subsidiary Opel

Solar company announces bid for General Motors subsidiary Opel
Christoph Hammerschmidt
EE Times Europe (11/19/2008 9:34 AM EST)
MUNICH, Germany — In the wake of the financial crisis, General Motors is in trouble and so is its German subsidiary Adam Opel AG, one of Europe's largest car makers. Now photovoltaics vendor Solarworld AG (Bonn, Germany) has submitted a takeover bid for Opel. Solarworld intends to create the first "green" automotive OEM.
Solarworld has contacted General Motors with the surprising offer to take over Opel's four German factories plus its design center, based in Ruesselsheim near Frankfurt. The PV system vendor offers to pay for the acquisition the sum of € 250 million (about $315 million) plus bank lines of € 750 million. Beneficiary of the sum would be Opel. Solarworld CEO Frank Asbeck said he intends to develop Opel as the first truly "green" European car maker.

Leaseplan vraagt steun van overheid

Het autoleasebedrijf Leaseplan heeft zich bij het ministerie van Financiën gemeld voor hulp.
Leaseplan wil gebruik maken van de garantieregeling die sinds eind oktober van kracht is en leningen van bedrijven garandeert. Minister Bos stelde hier toen 200 miljard euro voor beschikbaar.
Leaseplan is het eerste bedrijf dat van de garantieregeling gebruik wil maken. Het bedrijf wil dat de overheid garant staat voor maximaal 15 miljard euro.
De garantieregeling is iets anders dan het noodfonds waar eerder de bank ING en de bankverzekeraars Aegon en SNS Reaal gebruik van maakten. (NOS)

2008 From Inflation to Deflation

Economy: From Inflation to Deflation
Stock Market: Sell Hope, Buy Despair

Outside the Box: Five Potential Surprises into Year-End

The Face of Deflation
John Riley
For the past couple of years, the Fed and Wall Street have been denying the existence of deflation. Deflation is the worst economic scenario, so it is no surprise that they turn a blind eye publicly even when they are furiously working behind the scenes to prevent it and control it.
One of the ways of denying deflation is to strictly define it only as "a pervasive and constant price decline in all areas of the economy caused by a reduction in credit available or the money supply." While this is one definition, it is not the only definition.
Deflation starts out in the corporate area with a deflation of profits. It then goes to revenues and lastly causes price declines. We have already seen profit deflation and revenue deflation and some industries are experiencing price deflation.


We must start thinking like South American dictators (From The Guardian)
An economy on the brink of deflation needs to jettison the orthodoxies of prudence - in favour of a licence to print money
Deflation and depression are closely related. This week the UK has reported the sharpest drop in producer prices since the series began in 1975, and unemployment has reached an 11-year high with the largest jump in claimants since 1992. The Bank of England is forecasting a severe recession similar to the one that hit the Scandinavian economies after their banking collapses of the early 1990s. This, and the collapse in commodity prices, makes it likely that consumer price inflation will disappear completely before the middle of 2009. If economies weaken only a little further than now feared, then we will experience deflation. Yesterday's consumer price forecast from the Bank of England suggests this is entirely feasible - as Mervyn King, the bank's governor suggests this is entirely feasible - as Mervyn King, the bank's governor, admitted.

More about Deflation: Sense and nonsense about Deflation

Some quite amazing facts about the economic and financial crisis.

Some quite amazing facts about the economic and financial crisis.
Do world leaders, politicians, bankers, business leaders, market analysts, economists, journalists and almost the whole establishment suffer from some degree of 'collective tunnel vision'?
Some people whose Early Warning Systems worked well.

Meredith Whitney: The $360bn analyst
The analyst who sparked pandemonium in global financial markets with a simple note has a colourful history.


Nouriel Roubini: Professor of Economic and International Business Stern School of Business, New York University

Chinese car makers SAIC And Dongfeng Intend To Buy GM.

By Bertel Schmitt (the Truth about Cars blog)
November 19, 2008
The story that Chinese SAIC and Dongfeng are thinking (aloud) about buying GM or Chrysler, or maybe both, created a firestorm on both sides of the no longer so Pacific Ocean. Just in case someone still thinks it’s a fluke, the Chinese media is chockablock full with the story. It’s all in (duh) Chinese, but trust us: From mass-outlets like Sina.com all the way to the government-owned Autoinfo.gov.cn, their headlines shout (in Chinese: ) “SAIC and Dongfeng intend to buy GM.” As far as more substance to the story goes, there’s nothing to report.

China Daily - Facing a daunting job to survive, the Big Three automakers have gone to Washington DC to beg for emergency federal aid, as the economic crisis is churning more wildly to take its toll..

Europese topconcerns slaan massaal alarm

Topondernemers slaan alarm.(Telegraaf.nl)
AMSTERDAM - Grote multinationals waaronder Shell, Philips en Akzo Nobel maken zich grote zorgen over de in snel tempo om zich heen grijpende economische crisis. ,,We hebben de bedrijvigheid in Europa nog nooit zo snel zien verslechteren als in de afgelopen maanden. De situatie is ronduit gevaarlijk en de Europese landen moeten nu echt ingrijpen”
Dat stellen de bestuursvoorzitters van 47 grote Europese concerns in een gezamenlijke brandbrief richting politiek en Europese Unie, met handtekeningen van bestuurders als Van der Veer (Shell), Kleisterlee (Philips), Wijers (Akzo Nobel), Van Boxmeer (Heineken) en Cescau (Unilever).
Volgens voorzitter Jorma Ollila, ook president-commissaris van Shell en Nokia, is in Europa sprake van een scherpe daling van het aantal nieuwe orders en bestaat er een groot gebrek aan betaalbare kredieten.

Het anti-rookbeleid

Het protest tegen het anti-rookbeleid van de overheid is zich sterk aan het uitbreiden.
De overheid dreigt met hardere en zwaardere maatregelen. Overtreding wordt als een economisch delict gezien en bij herhaling van overtreding worden café 's met sluiting bedreigd.
2020
"Opa,waarom houden ze jou steeds aan? Omdat ik een Strafblad heb jongen, ik heb in 2008 toen ik nog een café had de asbakken weer op tafel gezet, omdat ik niet wilde dat de klanten wegbleven en ik de zaak had moeten sluiten!
Waarom zijn ze toen niet met het verkopen van sigaretten gestopt? Tja, jongen, ze waren bang dat ze dan alle tabakswinkels schadeloos moesten stellen en dat ze de inkomsten van de accijnzen zouden missen, en dat de tabaksverkoop ondergronds zou gaan."
"En daarna? Dat is een heel verhaal. Toen brak de recessie door, er was weer genoeg personeel beschikbaar en er werden 200.000 "tabakswachten' aangenomen. De overheid kreeg meer bevoegdheden, er kwam de WET op de Gezondheidscontrole van het Individu en de tabakswachten kregen de bevoegdheid om overal binnen te stormen en naar illegale tabak te zoeken."
En toen werd het oorlog en lazerde de hele boel in elkaar of zoiets, toch? Ssst,.. dat mag je niet zeggen, ze kunnen je horen, en dan krijg je strafpunten. Maar, daar kwam het wel op neer.

Market update

Amsterdam,13.00 hrs CET
Markets in Asia and Europe lower.
U.S Markets set for lower openings.
Traders selling heavily on evidence of more economic weakness.
Awaiting results of Big3 hearing and bailout.
Home depot 3rd quarter profits 31% down.

Lower 2009 Oil Demand Forecast

OPEC Lowers 2009 Oil Demand Forecast for Third Month in A Row

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday lowered its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2009 for the third straight month, citing the downturn of highly industrialized economies. In its latest monthly oil market report, the Vienna-based organization forecast 86.68 million...

What happens after a 100 years of the Model T?

What happens after a 100 years of the Model T?
Under certain conditions the auto industry will get government help but they have to get their act together.
The U.S. auto industry needs a management shake up, a reorganisation and an innovative vision for the next 50 years. That will save them.




Congress, White House tussle over form of automaker rescue
WASHINGTON -- The White House and congressional Democrats launched a post-election showdown Monday over how to rescue U.S. automakers with millions of jobs, more than a century of iconic brands, and potentially economic confidence, riding on the outcome.
As the year that celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Model T races to a close in volatile political environment, the Bush administration and many lawmakers agree that up to $25 billion in loans should be extended to General Motors Corp , Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC.
But there are key differences on the details. Democratic leaders plan to forge ahead with an industry-backed proposal that would offer $25 billion from the Treasury Department's $700 billion financial industry rescue fund.

Shelby favors changing automaker management teams
Wednesday November 19, 7:23 am ET - By Ken Thomas, Associated Press Writer
Republican Shelby favors bankruptcy instead of bailout money for troubled automobile industry
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The top Senate Banking Committee Republican says nothing will turn around the troubled U.S. auto industry until its top management is ousted and the manufacturing model overhauled.
Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama said Wednesday he didn't think providing $25 billion in emergency loans to Detroit would do the jobs, calling that a "life support" option.
Shelby said on CBS's "The Early Show" that he believes filing for bankruptcy might be the better choice. He said: "I don't think they have immediate plans to change their model, which is a model of failure."
Rep. Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who heads the House Financial Services Committee, said he didn't think filing for bankruptcy would be a good strategy. He noted that such a move would likely mean that contracts with organized labor would have to be broken, saying "we already have too much union busting."



(Reuters Video) Congress weighs auto bailout (01:34) Report

Akkoord IJsland over Icesave

Akkoord IJsland over Icesave
17 november 2008, 18:24 uur | FD.nl
IJsland heeft een akkoord bereikt met Nederland, het Verenigd Koninkrijk en een aantal andere Europese landen over terugbetaling van tegoeden aan rekeninghouders van internetbank Icesave, dochter van het in problemen geraakte Landsbanki.

Officiële verklaring van de Eerste Minister van IJsland (Engels)

Roel Pieper's Eclipse Aviation slachtoffer van de Market Crash 2008 en de recessie

Volgens Forecast International is het einde van Roel Piepers's Eclipse 500 project in zicht.
Het veranderde beursklimaat, de krediet crisis, de gedaalde olieprijs en de recessie zijn de voornaamste oorzaak.
Waarschijnlijk was echter het hele bedrijfs- en marketing concept op onjuiste analyses gebaseerd. Bomen groeien nu eenmaal niet tot aan de hemel.
Website Eclipse Aviation, http://www.eclipseaviation.com/

Zie Persbericht van Forecast International:
Press Release
Contact: Douglas Royce
Phone: (203) 426-0800 - Fax: (203) 426-4262
Web site: www.forecast1.com
Forecast International, Inc.
22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Forecast International Projects End of Eclipse 500 Production


NEWTOWN, Conn. [October 28, 2008] — In a new report to be issued in December, Forecast International has projected that production of the Eclipse 500 will soon end. The Connecticut-based market research firm believes that the aircraft’s manufacturer, Eclipse Aviation, will not attract new investment necessary to allow it to continue making the aircraft beyond the first quarter of 2009.

"Eclipse continues to produce aircraft at a low rate as it seeks to preserve cash," said Forecast International aircraft analyst Douglas Royce. "We have forecast production of 162 Eclipse 500s during 2008. We believe that the company will be able to push production out into early 2009 but will be forced to cease production within the first quarter of 2009." Forecast International predicts only about 12 Eclipse 500s will be produced in early 2009, and "even this forecast may prove too optimistic," said Royce.

According to Forecast International, Eclipse Aviation’s business plan depended on delivering a twin-jet aircraft at an extremely low price relative to its competition. This low price was dependent on use of a high-volume production strategy made possible by importing methods of production from the technology and automotive industries. However, the anticipated production ramp-up never occurred and the company has been unable to realize the economies of scale it needs to meet its price target.

Until May of 2008, the list price of the Eclipse 500 was $1.52 million. Thereafter, the aircraft’s price increased to $2.15 million, but Eclipse Aviation is required to deliver aircraft at the earlier, lower price to customers who executed an Aircraft Purchase Agreement and paid the required 60% total deposit. Every aircraft delivered under the old price is delivered at a loss, Forecast International notes. At the moment, the company does not have the financial resources to absorb these losses and survive.
To restructure its operations and reach profitability, Eclipse Aviation has said publicly that it needs $200-$300 million in new equity investment. With credit markets in the midst of a major crisis, Eclipse Aviation is seeking funding at a time when bankers and investors are reluctant to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into a company facing an uncertain future.
Eclipse is facing of host of new competitors in Very Light Jet (VLJ) market. Florida-based DayJet, an air taxi service, accounted for about half of the initial Eclipse backlog when it folded in Sept. 2008. Raising prices any further to cover costs will also cause the company’s backlog to contract. The business jet market overall is also entering a period in which demand is expected to contract sharply in the near term, cutting sales for every participant in the VLJ market.

"Under the circumstances, Forecast International believes that securing new funding, while still possible, is unlikely," said Royce. "Forecast International has cut its forecast for the Eclipse 500 accordingly."

Forecast International, Inc. (www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with Forecast International’s editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services

Ook de senior-analyst Richard Aboulafia van de Teal Group heeft een negatieve analyse.. zie artikel

Richard Aboulafia's excellent report on Eclipse. Download PDF