The Oil Price in 2009

First of all: Do not believe all the pundits, gurus and prediction reports about the development of the crude oil price. History has shown only about one in ten is right.
For instance: "Oil prices are likely to keep falling until well into next year and could reach $25 a barrel before recovering, US bank Merrill Lynch has said."
Merrill Lynch has slashed it's forecast for the average price per barrel to $50,- in 2009.
The Energy Information Administration reckons with a price of $63.50 in 2009.

What does OPEC want?
On their last meeting in Cairo they did not get an agreement about output cuts.
They realize however, the economic situation is deteriorating: Chakib Khelil, Algeria's oil minister and the group's president, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers noted "with concern the continued deterioration of the global economic situation and its impact on oil demand"
The ministers, he said in a statement, agreed to "take any additional action ... to balance oil supply and demand, and achieve market stability" during their Dec. 17 extraordinary meeting in Oran, Algeria.
The OPEC is a responsible organization, but their members simply need the money and the oil supply is not unlimited and renewable. Demand is strong and supply is limited.
Oil Prices are down because of the strong economic decline, but won't stay down. Opec will cut output!
The mighty Oil Companies will agree and support them, with an oil price below $50,- per barrel a lot of new exploration resources won't be interesting.

AP Interview: OPEC head warns of 'surprise' in oil output cuts, hints they may be deep
"A consensus has formed for a significant reduction of production levels" by the 14-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC President Chakib Khelil told The Associated Press.
The OPEC head would not discuss how deep the output cut would be, but said it could be "severe," and noted that some analysts are predicting cuts of as much as 2 million barrels per day.
An output decision that startles markets would help bolster plunging oil rates, Khelil said.
"The best way is to surprise them," he said. "I hope it (the decision) will."
Oil prices settled at a four-year low on Friday of $40.81 a barrel. In July, prices peaked at record highs above $140 a barrel.


Recommended reading.
The First Law of Petropolitics By Thomas L. Friedman
May/June 2006
Iran’s president denies the Holocaust, Hugo Chávez tells Western leaders to go to hell, and Vladimir Putin is cracking the whip. Why? They know that the price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions. It’s the First Law of Petropolitics, and it may be the axiom to explain our age.