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Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Are we going to have a Stock Market Crash in December 2008?

Are we going to have a Stock Market Crash in December 2008?

After last week's record gains on the markets we see this week stocks across the board going down again.
On the blog (and sites) since a couple of days we noticed people searching for 'market crash in december 2008', understandably, but we do not have the omnipotent foresight to give an excact date, and we believe nobody has.
Hundreds of millions of people worldwide invest, speculate or follow the stock markets and it is a very complex and difficult to grab whole.
Yesterday (Dec 2) the news emerged the U.S. is officially in recession for a year. Almost nobody could have foreseen the current situation a year ago.
For the last about 70 years the U.S. has been the driving force in the world economy, and for a long time the ' poplular wisdom' has been: " If the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold".
This turned out to be very true, the American economy is a 'consumer-driven' society and economy. When credit dries up the result is less spending.
That's why these days the figures from the Christmas shopping season (Black Friday, Cyber Monday, etcetera) are very important.
However, these figures are no more than an indicator of the moment and the mood.
Interest rates, unemployment figures, PMI, Psychology and Politics, construction figures, housing sales, inflation (or deflation) figures, GDP, the Oil Price, commodity prices and other Economic- and technical indicators are equally important. Almost too much to mention in fact.
The whole world is going through a time of change and transition, the effects are still unknown, but humanity has evolved through uncertain times.
At a certain moment the instinct, intuition, or 'gut feeling' has to be calculated and counted in as well and through reasoning a conclusion has to be reached.

So, back to the question: "Do we get a Stock Market Crash in December 2008?"
The answer is: "No!"

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