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Thursday, November 13, 2008

Nouriel Roubini says: The Worst Is Not Behind Us

Beware of those who say we've hit the bottom.

Not a V but a U shaped recession and probable a multi year L shaped recession.

"Obama will inherit an economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollars in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise, given price deflation, while the value of financial assets is still plunging."
Excellent (Dr. Doom) Prof. Nouriel Roubini has proved to be right before.

Well, that's a long sentence and certainly something to think about. And we would add: Americans are on average at least 35% overweight which greatly complicates the solution of the problems. (The bailout of the fastfood industry, or the reverse of the Evolution Theory and the return to Cannibalism. In America everything is possible)

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Chaos or a New World Economic Order?

Interest Rates [Credit] are the Cause and Consequence of the Explosion of Income/Wealth Disparities and, Hence, of the Inherent Instability of this Economy:

The Ominous Keynes' Liquidity Trap.
Origin of Economic Chaos.


As Far as we Know, As of Today No Other Economist Has Yet Discovered The Link Between Income Distribution and the Liquidity Trap.

None of the Traditional Tools of Governments Will Work: The Helpless Leaders of The G20 Countries Are Pathetic, Aren't They?


DIE ZEIT: Can the right monetary and fiscal policy keep the US out of a recession?

Alan Greenspan:

"Probably not. Global forces can now override most anything that monetary and fiscal policy can do.

Long-term real interest rates have significantly more impact on the core of economic activity than the individual actions of nations.

Central banks have increasingly lost their capacity to influence the longer end of the market.

Two to three decades, ago central banks were dominant throughout the maturity schedule.

Thus, the more important question is the direction of long-term real interest rates."


Chairman Sir Alan "El Maestro" Greenspan
The Great Irony of Success
© ZEIT online, 30.1.2008


Chart of Long-Term Interest Rates


When Long-Term Interest Rates Ar So Low As Not to Reward the Risk People Stop to Invest. Wouldn't You? Who Can Coerce Them into Losing Money?

Because It Is Through Investments That Money Is Created.

The Blood of the Economy Stops to Flow,
It is the Ominous Keynes' Liquidity Trap, The Root of Economic Chaos.

The Crash Will Be Brutal, With NO Prior Warning... You Need to Be Prepared.

1 7 7 6 - Annuit Cœptis Can't Avoid the Crash
it Can Shield You From Its Consequences


Everyone Need an Economy, Don't You?

There Is One Solution That Works:

A Credit Free, Free Market Economy:

What Else?... What Is Exactly the Other Option?

No One Will Chose the Chaos, Will You?

The Only Goal of 1 7 7 6 - Annuit Cœptis is to Implement It.

Anyone Can Join But Still Needs to Be Prepared. Shouldn't You?

http://www.17-76.net/

The Purpose Is to Provide Both a New Deal and a New Game.

It is NOT to Fix This Economy Which is Already Beyond Repair.

The Intention Is to Create a New Economy
With the Assets of the Old One Without its Liabilities.

1 7 7 6 - Annuit Cœptis Will Jump Start Its Economy When:

It Declares the State of Systemic Economic Collapse (Market Crash)

AND

The Number of Its Registered Participants Reaches 100,000,000


Why Not Insure Against the Worst Case Scenario?

It Is the Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World Economic Order.


✔ Introduction

✔ Numbered Account

✔ A Credit Free Currency

✔ Assets Transfer

✔ A Specific Practice of Employment, Interest and Money