What Obama Needs to Do to Get the U.S. Off Oil -- for Good

What Obama Needs to Do to Get the U.S. Off Oil -- for Good

George Soros: China a 'positive force'

George Soros: China a 'positive force'
The billionaire financier George Soros says that China's economy will grow faster than people expect and so will its global economic influence.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) -- Financier George Soros said on Sunday that China's global influence is set to grow faster than most people expect, with its isolation from the global financial system and a heavy state role in banking aiding a relatively swift economic recovery.

He reiterated his cautious views regarding the surge in global stock markets, although he said it may have further to go given liquidity in the markets and that many investors are still sitting on the sidelines.
"In many ways, Chinese banking has benefited from being isolated from the rest of the world and is in better shape than the international banking system," he told an audience at Shanghai's Fudan University.

China's extensive capital controls have helped to shield its financial institutions from the worst of the global financial crisis.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/07/news/international/soros_china.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009060712

China And Commodities: A Discussion

China And Commodities: A Discussion
China is buying up raw materials at a feverish pace, motivated by fear of a falling dollar. What does this mean for the U.S.?

(Source Forbes) Forbes gathered a panel of industry observers to discuss recent actions by China as it goes on a commodities buying spree. Our industry observers include David Joy, chief market strategist for Riversource Investments, Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab & Co., and Bill Singer, shareholder in the Securities Practice Group of the law firm Stark & Stark.

Some background on China's recent commodities boom. Recent figures show it holds 1,054 tons of gold, up from 600 tons in 2003; it upped its imports of iron ore to 57 metric tons in April and also increased its imports of other commodities including copper and oil. Specifically, China purchased 399,833 tons of copper in April, a record, vs. 374,957 in March.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/04/china-commodities-dollar-intelligent-investing-debt.html

EXCLUSIVE: Global crisis spending lacks direction: poll

EXCLUSIVE: Global crisis spending lacks direction: poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two-thirds of people believe "massive government spending" to combat the financial crisis shows a lack of clear direction, according to a poll of nations representing 75 percent of the global economy issued on Wednesday.
The Ipsos/Reuters survey also found that 60 percent of the people in the 23 countries polled say increased government regulation will stifle economic growth, an opinion particularly strong in the United States and emerging market giants India and China.

Clifford Young of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, the international market research and polling company that carried out the online poll, said the survey showed opinions were mixed with a majority still wanting more government action on the economic downturn despite their concerns.
"There's worry and some degree of uncertainty about government actions," Young said. "The general message is we want governments to do something, but not too much, and we don't want to go back to the dark ages."
The survey of 23,000 people, conducted from April 14 to May 7, showed 58 percent don't think the United States has done enough to reinvigorate the global economy, 53 percent believe the European Union needs to do more, and more than two-thirds think China has not done enough. Read more...
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55211E20090603

China's economy grew 6.1% in the first quarter, a rate most nations would kill for but amounts to "a recession in China,"

6.1% Growth "Is a Recession in China" But "More Optimistic Tone Justified"

(Source TechTicker)
China's economy grew 6.1% in the first quarter, a rate most nations would kill for but amounts to "a recession in China," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insights.
China needs at least 8% growth or more to absorb surplus labor and materials, he explains.
But Nariman is upbeat about China's growth going forward, noting the government's massive stimulus is starting to kick in. A revival of China could serve as a "mini-growth locomotive for emerging markets" generally and especially for commodity producers, he says.

The future belongs to India, not China

The future belongs to India, not China
Spring 2009 Series
On May 12, 2009 an important Intelligence Squared debate will take place in London

Event Information:
All bets are now on China as the nation that will soon rival the USA as the world's other superpower. But hasn't anyone been looking across the Himalayas? India, a democracy of over a billion people, has a rate of growth almost as impressive as China's, a burgeoning middle class, a highly skilled work force and an abundance of raw materials. More important still, it operates under the rule of law not the rule of the politburo. Could it be that India ends up the dominant power of the eastern hemisphere?
The debate will take place at: Royal Geographical Society, Ondaatje Theatre.
http://www.intelligencesquared.com/events.php?event=EVT0181

Speakers for the motion:
Gurcharan Das Gurcharan Das is an author and public intellectual. He was CEO of Procter & Gamble India, and later Managing Director (Strategic Planning) of Procter & Gamble Worldwide, before he took early retirement to pursue the life of a full time writer. He is author of the bestseller, "India Unbound", which has been published in 17 languages and has been filmed by the BBC. He writes a regular column for the Times of India and six Indian language newpapers, and occasional pieces for the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Foreign Affairs.

Mark Tully Mark Tully was BBC Delhi correspondent from 1972 to 2004. Since 2004 he has been a freelance journalist, writer and broadcaster resident in Delhi. He is author of five books on India, the latest of which is "India's Unending Journey". He was educated at New School in Darjeeling, Marlborough College in the UK, and at Cambridge where he read history and theology.

Deepak Lal Indian-born classical liberal economist. He is the author of numerous articles on development economics, and his books include "In Praise of Empires: Globalisation and Order" and most recently "Reviving the Hidden Hand: The Case for Classical Liberalism in the 21st Century". He is James S. Coleman Professor of International Development Studies, University of California.

Speakers against the motion:
Lord Powell Charles Powell was Private Secretary to both Margaret Thatcher and John Major, and was a key foreign policy adviser to Mrs Thatcher. He was Chairman of the China-Britain Business Council from 1998 to 2007.

Danny Quah Malaysian-born Head of Department and Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. He has delivered lectures at the United Nations, the Hay Festival Segovia, the World Science Forum, No. 10 Downing Street, and Khazanah Megatrends Forum, and has had his writings translated into 18 different languages. He is a Governor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and has consulted for the World Bank, the Bank of England, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Sir David Tang KBE Hong Kong businessman and socialite best known as the founder of the Shanghai Tang chain, although he sold his interest in the company in 1998. More recently Tang opened the Cipriani in Hong Kong and the China Tang restaurant at the Dorchester Hotel. He is a frequent contributor to publications such as The Spectator, The Daily Telegraph and the International Herald Tribune.

Wereldbank verwacht: lagere groei in Oost-Azië

Wereldbank: lagere groei in Oost-Azië
7 april 2009, 10:26 uur | FD.nl

(Bron Het Financieële Dagblad)
De opkomende economieën in Oost-Azië groeien dit jaar veel minder hard dan in de voorgaande jaren . Door een 'pijnlijke toename' van de werkloosheid en een daling van de lonen kunnen miljoenen mensen in de regio niet aan de armoede ontsnappen. Volgens de prognoses van de Wereldbank vertraagt de economische groei in Oost-Azië dit jaar tot 5,3 %, tegenover 8 % in 2008 en meer dan 11 % in 2007. Als China buiten beschouwing wordt gelaten, valt de groei nog 'veel lager' uit, stelde Wereldbankeconoom Vikram Nehru in een toelichting.
China is dan ook het enige lichtpuntje dat de ontwikkelingsbank in Oost-Azië ontwaart. Volgens de Wereldbank kan het economisch herstel daar al in de tweede helft van dit jaar inzetten. Lees artikel...
http://www.fd.nl/artikel/11370893/wereldbank-lagere-groei-oost-azie

Statement of World Bank Senior Economist Eric le Borgne at the Launch of the East Asia and Pacific Half-Yearly Update
Statement by Eric LE BORGNE, Senior Economist, World Bank Office in Manila
Pasig City, April 7, 2009
PHILIPPINES-Battling the forces of global recession. Download PDF
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPHILIPPINES/Resources/PHILIPPINESBattlingtheforcesofglobalrecessionFINAL.pdf

Chance Of A Bottoming Out In China Provides Ray Of Hope On An Otherwise Gloomy Horizon, Says World Bank’s Review Of East Asian And Pacific Economies
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22131602~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html

Tokyo, April 7, 2009 – As countries in the East Asia and Pacific region prepare themselves for an expected surge in joblessness resulting from the global slowdown, a ray of hope may be emerging with signs of China’s economy bottoming out by mid-2009, says the World Bank's latest half-yearly assessment of the region's economic health.
The latest East Asia and Pacific Update, titled Battling the Forces of Global Recession, says a recovery in China – fueled largely by the country’s huge economic stimulus package – is likely to begin this year and take full hold in 2010, potentially contributing to the region’s stabilization, and perhaps recovery. But with China still heavily reliant on exports to world markets that continue to contract, the Update warns that a truly sustainable recovery in the East Asia and Pacific region ultimately depends on developments in the advanced economies.

Battling the forces of global recession, Download PDF
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEAPHALFYEARLYUPDATE/Resources/550192-1238574864269/5976918-1239010682147/update_april09_fullreport.pdf

World stock markets rebound on Chinese stimulus hopes, Shanghai leads recovery

World stocks rebound on China stimulus hopes
Wednesday March 4, 6:43 am ET

World stock markets rebound on Chinese stimulus hopes, Shanghai leads recovery

LONDON (AP) --(From Yahoo Finance) Stock markets in Europe and Asia rebounded Wednesday amid mounting hopes that China will soon announce a big stimulus package that could help limit the length and depth of the recession in the industrialized world.
A legislative meeting starts Thursday in China and top of the agenda is what the government can do to lift growth rates, which have fallen in the wake of the global economic downturn. As one of the few major economies still expanding, China is being closely watched amid hopes its demand and trade can help the world weather the most severe global slowdown in decades.

Chinese shares led Wednesday's advance, with Shanghai's index jumping more than 6 percent to close at 2,198.11.
"Obviously, this unusual rally suggests that investors are overly optimistic about what to expect from the legislature. They think the government will do more to boost spending to stimulate the economy," said Peng Yunliang, an analyst with Shanghai Securities in Shanghai.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was up 61.24 points, or 0.9 percent, to 7,290.96, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 297.27, or 2.5 percent, to 12,331.15. South Korea's Kospi climbed 3.3 percent to 1,059.26.
Markets in Singapore, Taiwan and New Zealand also gained. Australia's index shed 1.6 percent.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares recovered from six-year lows to rise 66.42 points, or 1.9 percent, to 3,578.51, while Germany's DAX was up 99.38 points, or 2.7 percent, at 3,790.10. The CAC-40 in France was 54.05 points, or 2.1 percent, higher at 2,608.60.

Will The Economic Crisis Split East And West In Europe?

Will The Economic Crisis Split East And West In Europe?
Nouriel Roubini, 02.26.09, 12:01 AM EST
The meltdown puts huge pressure on the E.U.'s free-market rules.

(Nouriel Roubini co-wrote this essay with Mary Stokes, Jelena Vukotic and Elisa Parisi-Capone, analysts at Roubini Global Economics.)

The Central and Eastern Europe region is the sick man of emerging markets. While the global crisis means few--if any--bright spots worldwide, the situation in the CEE area is particularly bleak. After almost a decade of outpacing worldwide growth, the region looks set to contract in 2009, with almost every country either in or on the verge of recession.
The once high-flying Baltics--Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania--look headed for double-digit contractions, while countries relatively less affected by the crisis--the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia--will have a hard time posting even positive growth. Meanwhile, Hungary and Latvia's economies have already deteriorated to the point where International Monetary Fund (IMF) help was needed late last year.
Central and Eastern Europe's ill health is primarily driven by two factors: collapsing exports and the drying up of capital inflows. Exports were key to the region's economic success, accounting for 80% to 90% of gross domestic product in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. By far the biggest market for CEE goods is the Eurozone, now in recession.
Meanwhile, the global credit crunch has sapped capital inflows to the region. An easy flow of credit fueled Eastern Europe's boom in recent years, but the good times are gone. According to the Institute of International Finance, net private capital flows to emerging Europe are projected to fall from an estimated $254 billion in 2008 to $30 billion in 2009. Whether this is formally considered a "sudden stop" of capital or not, it will necessitate a very painful adjustment process. Read more...
http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/25/eastern-europe-eu-banks-euro-opinions-columnists_nouriel_roubini.html

China GDP shows slowdown

China GDP shows slowdown
(01:43) Reuters Video Report

Jan 22 - Fresh economic data shows China's economy slowing down dramatically, while officials say stability is the top priority for a bleak 2009.
Although authorities said the slowdown was only temporary, it did snap a five-year streak of double-digit growth that has turned China into the third-largest economy in 2008 after the United States and Japan.

China raises '07 economic growth, passing Germany

China raises '07 economic growth, passing Germany
China passes Germany to become world's 3rd-largest economy after 2007 GDP revision

BEIJING (AP) -- China surpassed Germany to become the world's third-largest economy behind the United States and Japan after Beijing on Wednesday raised its estimate of economic growth in 2007.
The status is symbolic -- China's 1.3 billion people are, on average, among the world's poorest -- but reflects the country's explosive growth as it became the world's factory and a trading power over 30 years of economic reform.
The government revised its estimate of 2007 economic growth from an already high 11.9 percent to an eye-popping 13 percent, the fastest rate since 1994.
That raised China's gross domestic product to 25.7 trillion yuan, or $3.5 trillion at 2007 exchange rates, the national statistics agency said. That would be ahead of Germany's 2007 GDP of 2.4 trillion euros, or $3.3 trillion at an exchange rate produced by averaging rates on the 15th of each month during that year. Based on only Dec. 31, 2007, exchange rates, China was slightly behind Germany but would have passed it early last year.

The downside risk to China's economy is increasing, and some economic indicators deteriorated in November, said China's top economic planner on Thursd

China facing bigger economic downside risk

(Chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-11-27 11:49
The downside risk to China's economy is increasing, and some economic indicators deteriorated in November, said China's top economic planner on Thursday.
The troubling status quo of the country's economy has driven top policy-makers to work day and night, with Premier Wen Jiabao presiding over up to four State Council meetings in a week.
Zhang Ping, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said during a press conference in Beijing Thursday that the central government has meted out a breakdown of the 4-trillion-yuan fiscal stimulus plan. The majority of the investments will be channelled to infrastructure projects, rural residents' medical care and pensions, technological renovation, environment, and tax cuts for businesses and individuals.
Deepening economic woes worldwide are casting a larger shadow on China, the world's fastest growing major economy. Some major economic indicators have shown evident signs of worsening since the beginning of November. Although Zhang did not detail those indicators, analysts said they include the gross domestic product (GDP), exports, capital investments, and the consumer price index (CPI).
China's GDP slowed to 9 percent in the July-September period, down from 9.9 percent in the second quarter. Many economists predict that the growth for the last quarter of 2008 could tumble to as low as 6 percent.
The worst has yet to come as the global financial crisis has not bottomed out, Zhang admitted.

Murdoch: China, India will reshape the world

Murdoch: China, India will reshape the world
By ROHAN SULLIVAN, Associated Press Writer Rohan Sullivan, Associated Press
SYDNEY, Australia – Media tycoon Rupert Murdoch says the ongoing metamorphosis of China and India from historic backwaters into economic powers will help reshape the world in the next few decades.
The News Corp. chief gave an upbeat assessment of the future and made a vigorous case for free markets despite troubled economic times and what he called "naked, heartless aggression" in the world.
In the first of a series of speeches in his birth country of Australia, Murdoch spoke Sunday of "the great transformation we've seen in the past few decades, the unleashing of human talent and ability across our world, and the golden age for humankind that I see just around the corner."