De Rabobank is pessimistischer dan de Nederlandse Regering in het kwartaalbericht Maart 2009 en rekent op een krimp van 4% voor de economie

De Rabobank is pessimistischer dan de Nederlandse Regering in het kwartaalbericht Maart 2009 en rekent op een krimp van 4% voor de economie

In het Economisch Kwartaalbericht presenteert de Rabobank haar visie op de economische ontwikkelingen. Naast informatie over de grote economische blokken in de wereld belicht de bank in elke editie enkele landen.
De Rabobank besteedt deze keer aandacht aan het Verenigd Koninkrijk, Rusland en het Oostelijk deel van de EU en eurozone. Ook is er een Special over de financiële crisis genaamd ‘Hoe de economie wordt gegrepen’. Het EKB sluit traditiegetrouw af met de economische kerngegevens.

Download PDF Economisch Kwartaalbericht Maart 2009 Rabobank http://overons.rabobank.com/content/images/EKBmaart2009_tcm64-83578.pdf

Big slide in global trade looms over G-20 meeting

Big slide in global trade looms over G-20 meeting
Big slide in global trade and rise in protectionism worry analysts as G-20 leaders meet
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Big-slide-in-global-trade-apf-14791765.html

(Source Yahoo Finance)
GENEVA (AP) -- With global trade sliding, analysts say some of the world's most powerful leaders may need to offer more than ritual support for open markets when they meet this week if they are to steady a teetering economy and avoid a damaging retreat to protectionism.
The presidents, prime ministers and chancellors of the Group of 20 nations have halfheartedly respected their pledge of four months ago to avoid turning inwards in fighting the economic crisis. Since then, world commerce has plummeted in a way unseen since the Great Depression.
With no concerted strategy for a revival, some economists say a rash of go-it-alone stimulus packages and industry bailouts could lead to trade wars -- causing havoc in one of the key driving forces to the world's economic growth since World War II.

"We're playing with fire," said Jagdish Bhagwati, an economist at Columbia University. "The system was designed to avoid the free-for-all wrestling of the 1930s. If the U.S. and France start saying, 'This is legal so I am going to do it,' everyone else will start to play that game."
The World Trade Organization says most of the major powers -- from the United States and European Union to China and India -- have erected new barriers to imports in the form of tariffs, subsidies or other measures designed to protect domestic industries. Read article...

Soros is very pessimistic and sees a global meltdown

March 28, 2009
George Soros, the man who broke the Bank, sees a global meltdown
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article5989163.ece

(Source Times Online)
The man who has a phobia about maths has made his name as the philosopher king of economics – his book The Crash of 2008, out in paper-back next week, has been a bestseller on both sides of the Atlantic. Since 1944 he has believed in what he calls “reflexivity” – the idea that people base their decisions on their own perception of a situation rather than on the reality.
He has applied this both to investment and to politics: his skill has been to predict moments of seismic change by identifying a disjunction between perception and reality.
When everyone else was convinced that the markets would automatically correct themselves, the 78-year-old “old fogey”, as he calls himself, was one of the few warning of recession. He put all his chips on “the Barack guy” early on when all around him were still gunning for Hillary Clinton. It’s almost as if he has been waiting for the Great Recession for the past ten years. When we ask whether he prefers booms or busts, he replies: “I have to admit that actually I flourish, I’m more stimulated by the bust.”
This recession, he explains, is a “once-in-a-lifetime event”, particularly in Britain. “This is a crisis unlike any other. It’s a total collapse of the financial system with tremendous implications for everyday life. On previous occasions when you had a crisis that was threatening the system the authorities intervened and did whatever was necessary to protect the system. This time they failed.”
The financial oracle does not know how long it will last. “That depends on how it’s handled. Allowing Lehman Brothers to fail was the game-changing event. That’s when the financial crisis went over the brink.” We could end up with a depression. “Unless we handle it well then I think we would. The size of the problem is actually bigger than in the 1930s.”
The problem in Britain, he believes, is in many ways worse than in America or Germany. “American memory is seared by the Depression, the German memory is seared by hyperinfla-tion but Britain has a pretty serious problem in many ways worse than America because the financial sector looms bigger and the overvaluation of real estate is bigger than in America.”

Soros: The Recession Will Last Forever
(Source Yahoo Tech Ticker)
Already, there are signs that no consensus will be reached. Germany's Angel Merkel, for one, is sounding particularly strident in her opposition to a "global New Deal", which is what the US and the UK would like to see.

But George Soros says it's the last chance to save the world, and that if they don't the world could face a depression worse than the 30s:
Times of London: The G20 summit in London next week is, he says, the last chance to avert disaster. “The odds would favour that it fails because there are such differences of opinion. It’s difficult enough to get it right in your own country let alone with 20 governments coming together, but if it’s a failure I think then the global financial and trading system falls apart.”
If the G20 is nothing but a talking shop then he thinks we are heading for meltdown. “That could push the world into depression. It’s really a make-or-break occasion. That’s why it’s so important.” The chances of a depression are, he says, “quite high” – even if that is averted, the recession will last a long time. “Look, we are not going back to where we came from. In that sense it’s going to last for ever.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/222342/Soros-The-Recession-Will-Last-Forever?tickers=^dji,^gspc

Is de Beurs belangrijk?

Natuurlijk zijn de beurzen en aandelenmarkten belangrijk!

Zo belangrijk zelfs dat financiële kennis een vaste plaats in het onderwijs zou moeten krijgen.
Net zo belangrijk als een fundamentele kennis van gezondheid en geografie of geschiedenis, wis- en natuurkunde en kennis van talen. We leven in de 21ste Eeuw!
De beurzen, economie en aandelenmarkten zouden al op beginners niveau een plaats in het onderwijs moeten krijgen, net als de kennis van de voordelen en risico's van beleggen, investeren, speculeren en gokken. Als kinderen al heel vroeg gaan begrijpen dat gokken bijna altijd een verlies oplevert en de winstkansen heel klein zijn dan kan dat vooral op latere leeftijd veel problemen voorkomen.
De overheid heeft zelf een monopolie op gokken, d.m.v. casino's en loterijen. Een vast percentage van die inkomsten zou aan financieel onderwijs besteedt moeten worden, in plaats van gaten in rammelende begrotingen te dekken.
Kennis van inkomsten, uitgaven, ondernemen, budgetten en balansen zou op elk niveau in een moderne samenleving aanwezig horen te zijn. De mens is evolutionair gezien een 'economisch wezen'.
Evenals kennis van de gezondheid in het algemeen en de eigen gezondheid is het uiterst belangrijk, al was het alleen maar om te voorkomen dat kinderen (en adolescenten) zich tot domme, vadsige, hyperactieve, volvette en krakkemikkige, van de gezondheidszorg en sociale hulp afhankelijke monstertjes en kostenposten gaan ontwikkelen.

Als een overheid gedurende een reeks van jaren geen intelligente visie kan produceren op het Onderwijs en de Samenleving dan volgt er toch vroeg of laat een maatschappelijke afrekening, hetzij in de vorm van niet te beheersen budgetten in "de zorg of het onderwijs" of anderszins (zoals maatschappelijke problemen, stilstand, achteruitgang, onrust of onveiligheid).
Echte economische groei is toch wel iets anders, hoe moeilijk dat ook te verteren is voor de 'anti-groeiers'.

Scheringa wil lessen over geld op lagere school
(Bron: DFT, De Telegraaf)
WOGNUM (AFN) - Als het aan bankier Dirk Scheringa ligt, krijgen leerlingen op de lagere school het vak ’huishoudboekje’. Hij zegt dat zaterdag in een interview met Het Financieele Dagblad. Scheringa vindt het noodzakelijk dat mensen leren goed met geld om te gaan.

Key details from U.S. autos task force findings

(Reuters) FACTBOX: Key details from U.S. autos task force findings
Mon Mar 30, 2009 2:22am EDT

DETROIT (Reuters) - The U.S. task force overseeing the restructuring of the auto industry on Monday said the plans submitted by General Motors Corp and Chrysler failed to show how they could be viable.
GM will receive 60 days of additional working capital to resolve the situation and Chrysler, about 80 percent controlled by private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, will have 30 days to complete an alliance with Fiat SpA.
The task force said an expedited bankruptcy process to help GM and Chrysler eliminate unsustainable debt loads may be the best path if out-of-court restructurings with creditors cannot be negotiated.
The government also said it would launch a plan to guarantee the warrantee coverage of consumers who purchase new GM and Chrysler vehicles during the next phase of their restructuring.
Key findings by the autos task force follow: Read more...
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-autos/idUKTRE52T0R920090330?virtualBrandChannel=10112

Averting the next energy crisis: The demand challenge. The McKinsey Report

Averting the next energy crisis: The demand challenge. The McKinsey Report
Global energy-demand growth is expected to flatten in the short term but will rebound with recovery. Indeed, there is potential for liquids-demand growth to outpace that of supply—risking a new spike in oil as soon as 2010 to 2013, depending on the depth of the economic downturn.
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/next_energy_crisis/index.asp

By registering on the McKinsey site you can download all these reports for free.
Chapter 1: Energy demand set to rebound after short lull
Since GDP is the most important driver of energy demand and the trajectory of world economic growth is exceedingly uncertain, the report presents several scenarios for energy-demand growth to give a feel for the range of outcomes possible. It examines energy-demand growth across end-use sectors and regions and by fuel type.
Launch this chapter (PDF - 1.03 MB)

Chapter 2: Liquids-demand tightness could return between 2010 and 2013
Liquids demand will be stagnant in the short term due to impact of high prices in 2007 and the credit squeeze. MGI’s moderate case projects that liquids demand will grow only weakly by 0.4 percent in 2009 but will rebound in 2010 to post growth of 2.1 percent.
Launch this chapter (PDF - 1.05 MB)

Chapter 3: Sectoral demand outlooks
Light-duty vehicles
The light-duty vehicles sector accounts for about 70 percent of the total road-transport sector, which is crucial to gaining an understanding the evolution of petroleum. MGI finds that energy demand from light vehicles is set to grow at 1.9 per annum to 2020. Adding to energy demand is extremely rapid growth in the vehicle stock in China, the Middle East, and India. However, robust new-vehicle efficiency standards—particularly but not exclusively in developed countries—offset this trend.
Launch this chapter (PDF - 1.47 MB)

G20 London Summit Aims, April 2, 2009

G20 London Summit, April 2, 2009

Summit Aims
On 2 April 2009, world leaders from the G20 countries – representing 85% of the world’s output – will meet in London. They will meet against the backdrop of the worst international banking crisis in generations.
Confidence in the international banking system has fallen. Major institutions have failed. Countries around the world have entered recession, with falling trade and rising unemployment.

At the Summit, countries need to come together to enhance global coordination in order to help restore global economic growth. World leaders must make three commitments:

* First, to take whatever action is necessary to stabilise financial markets and enable families and businesses to get through the recession.

* Second, to reform and strengthen the global financial and economic system to restore confidence and trust.

* Third, to put the global economy on track for sustainable growth.

The London Summit will take place against the backdrop of exceptionally challenging economic circumstances. But, just as after the Second World War visionary leaders laid the groundwork for 30 years of prosperity and growth, built on international economic cooperation, this crisis is also an opportunity.

Publiek-privaat investeringsprogramma. Het plan van Geithner

Vandaag (1245 GMT) presenteert de Amerikaanse Minister van Financiën Timothy Geithner het plan voor de 'public-private partnerships' om eindelijk eens het probleem van de 'toxic bank assets' op te lossen. (Amsterdam 13.15 CET) Wat de uitkomst van het plan zal zijn en hoe de markt er op zal reageren weten we nog niet maar de verwachtingen zijn internationaal hoog gespannen. De beurzen in het verre Oosten sloten hoger en de Europese beurzen doen het ook goed terwijl de futures voor Wallstreet een substantieel hogere opening aangeven.

"Er heerst blijkbaar nog steeds een soort 'wanhopig optimisme' in de markt dat als de banken weer gaan lenen en de krediet crisis opgelost zal zijn als het probleem van de merendeels waardeloze bezittingen (troubled assets, bad assets) opgelost wordt.
Dezelfde fout die al vanaf het begin gemaakt is door de banken alle schuld van de crisis te geven en volledig voor de beurskrach verantwoordelijk te stellen. Maar de toestand van de banken is slechts een symptoom van de fundamentele zwakheid in de economie. Zodoende beschouwen wij dit als een echte 'sucker rally', -wat het weer wat spannender maakt overigens."

Toekomstige effecten van het Geithner plan: Een opstand van de belasting betalers en een hoge inflatie?

"Happy Talk" Won't Solve Crisis, Galbraith Says: Much More Govt. Action Needed



From Obama to Geithner to Bernanke, policymakers are like doctors dealing with a "mildly ill" patient vs. treating one who is "gravely" ill, says James Galbraith, University of Texas professor and author of The Predator State.
The economist fears the economy is in terminal condition requiring much more intervention than already prescribed. He believes government "doctors" are engaged in a lot of "happy talk" about recovery based on a "fundamentally flawed model," hinged on the idea the economy is self-healing and only needs a booster shot before it "naturally" returns to trend growth and unemployment in the 5% range.

03/23/2009 Download the free PDF Treasury Department Releases Details on Public Private Partnership Investment Program

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

US details toxic asset programme

US details toxic asset programme

(Source BBC)
Mr Geithner said the plan would be better for taxpayers
The US is set to announce details of a $500bn (£343bn) plan to encourage investors to buy up toxic assets.
The plan will offer subsidies in the form of low-interest loans to private investors to encourage them to buy troubled mortgages and other loans.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the measures were needed to help the financial system recover.
The plan is due to be formally launched later on Monday.
The "Public-Private Investment Programme" will purchase the troubled mortgages and securities that have been at the root of the credit crisis from banks.

Business / Economy
U.S. Rounding Up Investors to Buy Bad Assets (NY Times Permalink)
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN, ERIC DASH and RACHEL L. SWARNS
Published: March 23, 2009
A day before unveiling the government’s plan to buy troubled assets, the Obama administration worked to persuade private investors to participate.

Geithner Banks on Private Cash (Source WSJ)
Treasury Secretary Says Investors Needed to Help U.S. Rid Balance Sheets of Bad Assets

WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the only way to remove troubled assets clogging banks' balance sheets -- which lie at the heart of the financial crisis -- is to work with the private sector, even at a time when Wall Street moneymakers are being vilified by the public and politicians.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal Sunday, Mr. Geithner said the government cannot fix the financial crisis alone. "Our judgment is that the best way to get through this is if we can work with the markets," he said. "We don't want the government to assume all the risk. We want the private sector to work with us."

My Plan for Bad Bank Assets (Source Financial Times)
The private sector will set prices. Taxpayers will share in any upside.

The American economy and much of the world now face extraordinary challenges, and confronting these challenges will continue to require extraordinary actions.
No crisis like this has a simple or single cause, but as a nation we borrowed too much and let our financial system take on irresponsible levels of risk. Those decisions have caused enormous suffering, and much of the damage has fallen on ordinary Americans and small-business owners who were careful and responsible. This is fundamentally unfair, and Americans are justifiably angry and frustrated.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123776536222709061.html

Mr Geithner is due to give a briefing on the plan at 8.45 a.m. (1245 GMT) Monday, March 23

Huizenmarkt/Hypotheken in Nederland

Huizen/Hypotheken Nederland
Hoewel dit niet onze specialiteit is (er zijn plenty gespecialiseerde sites) zijn de volgende berichtjes wel van groot belang voor de verdere ontwikkeling van de Nederlandse huizen- en hypothekenmarkt, en de banken, c.q. leningen en hypothekensector, met name DSB enzovoort.
De onroerend goed markt in Nederland wordt naar onze mening al lang, minstens 12 jaar of langer, kunstmatig opgepept (steroïden) en de toekomstige ontwikkeling is ongetwijfeld interessant te noemen.

Moody's past risicoweging hypotheken aan
(Source DFT, De Telegraaf.nl)
AMSTERDAM (AFN) - Kredietbeoordelaar Moody’s heeft zijn risicoweging voor verschillende Nederlandse hypotheken verzwaard. Daarmee wil Moody’s zijn modellen voor het waarderen van obligaties met als onderpand Nederlandse hypotheken nauwkeuriger maken, zo liet de kredietbeoordelaar deze week weten.
De wegingen worden aangepast in het licht van veranderingen in hypotheekproducten op de Nederlandse markt. Daarnaast heeft het beoordelingsbureau verschillende belangrijke risico’s op de obligaties opnieuw beoordeeld. Door de aanpassingen zullen beleggers mogelijk een hogere rentevergoeding op deze schuldpapieren vragen. Lees meer...
http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/nieuws_dft/3524175/__Moody_s_past_risicoweging_hypotheken_aan__.html

Huizenprijzen dalen
(Source DFT, De Telegraaf.nl)
DEN HAAG (AFN) - De prijzen van koopwoningen zijn in februari met 0,5 procent gedaald ten opzichte van een jaar eerder. Dat maakte het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) vrijdag bekend. Het is de eerste daling sinds het CBS in 1995 met meting van de huizenprijzen begon.
Uit de cijfers van het CBS en het Kadaster blijkt dat bijna alle typen huizen in februari goedkoper waren dan in februari 2008. Hoekwoningen en appartementen daalden het meest in prijs. Alleen tussenwoningen werden iets duurder. Vergeleken met januari daalden de huizenprijzen met 1,1 procent.
In de loop van vorig jaar was de stijging van de gemiddelde verkoopprijs van koopwoningen al flink afgezwakt. In januari stegen de prijzen nog met 1,2 procent. Het aantal verkochte woningen daalde in februari voor de vierde maand op rij, ditmaal met 41 procent ten opzichte van een jaar eerder. Lees meer...
http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/nieuws_dft/3523944/__Huizenprijzen_dalen__.html

Zie: CBS Conjunctuurbericht, vrijdag 20 maart 2009 9:30
Prijzen koopwoningen dalen voor het eerst sinds lange tijd

http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/themas/bouwen-wonen/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2009/2009-03-20-m11.htm

Meredith Whitney, what she said about the banking sector

Meredith Whitney, the well-known former Oppenheimer analyst had some interesting words to say on CNBC about the banking sector, nationalization, dividends and Citigroup. Take a look at this CNBC Video...
After the recent bear market rally let's see what she said before it...

A bear market rally, a sucker rally, or the return of the Bull?

Anyway it's obvious investors see chances in the Tech sector, for now at least!

A bear market rally, a sucker rally, or the return of the Bull? We remain skeptic and place our bets on a sucker rally.



IBM in talks to buy Sun Microsystems: report

BANGALORE (Reuters) - IBM is in talks to buy Sun Microsystems Inc for at least $6.5 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported, in a deal that could bolster their computer server products against rivals such as Hewlett-Packard Co.
That would translate into a premium of about 100 percent over Sun's Nasdaq closing price Tuesday of $4.97 a share, the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Sun, which was not immediately available for comment, has long been cited as a takeover target for International Business Machines Corp, HP, Dell Inc or Cisco Systems Inc, which this week unveiled its plan to start making blade servers that power corporate computer networks. More...
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52H1GS20090318

Why Tech Stocks Won't Lead The Next Bull Market (MSFT, ORCL, AAPL, YHOO, GE)

(Source Sillicon Alley Insider)
Tech will be a long-term winner if you define it broadly. Innovations in energy tech, food tech, industrial tech and medical tech may help many of the companies around today. GE, for all its faults, has a lot of exciting technology.
Eventually there will be another bull market, and it's always a good mental exercise to play the "what will lead the next bull market when it comes" game. Right now it's particularly tough, since everything in the economy seems so miserable.
The two easiest answers are "natural resources" and "tech." We'll skip resources for now, but if commodity prices from last year represent some norm for when the world economy is humming, then it's easy to imagine these stocks roaring higher.
Tech, meanwhile, is always a popular guess. Tech and economic growth are inherently connected. Tech drives human progress and lifestyle advance. Tech is inherently on the cutting edge.
Tech also includes some amazing long-term winners that have led great bull runs. What's more, today's tech stocks have some of the best balance sheets around -- a particularly positive attribute at a time when investors are going over corporate balance sheets with a magnifying glass (or at least trying to, if there's enough transparency).

But it will likely be different this time.
The problem is that the current crop of publicly traded tech companies is getting long in the tooth, and the companies at the cutting edge of tech aren't public, nor are they likely to be anytime soon.
Tech will be a long-term winner if you define it broadly. Innovations in energy tech, food tech, industrial tech and medical tech may help many of the companies around today. GE, for all its faults, has a lot of exciting technology.
http://www.businessinsider.com/tech-stocks-wont-lead-the-next-bull-market-2009-3

Europe will suffer an earnings decline of around 60% and the present stock rally is a bear-market rally, Ad van Tiggelen Senior from ING Investment Management Europe told CNBC Wednesday.

The Wall Street bonus in retreat

The Wall Street bonus in retreat
As Washington steps up its attacks, bankers are already getting used to a whole new pay scale.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- While Washington's attacks on Wall Street bonuses have reached a fever pitch - "outrageous," declared President Obama's economic advisor Larry Summers on Sunday about AIG's bonuses - this latest round of firepower is being leveled at forces already in retreat.
In the wake of one of the most heavily scrutinized bonus seasons on what is left of Wall Street, a review of how bankers and traders got paid this year reveals not only a few unexpected surprises but also a sense that market forces - with two notable exceptions - are doing as much to set compensation now as are the lawmakers in Washington.
The outrageous exceptions, of course, occurred at both AIG (AIG, Fortune 500), the large international insurer that is now nearly 80%-owned by U.S. taxpayers, and at Merrill Lynch, where "Let them eat cake"-style massive bonuses were paid last December to a plethora of top traders and bankers before the firm completed its sale to Bank of America, even though Merrill lost $27.6 billion in 2008, took $10 billion in TARP funds and was days away from a likely bankruptcy filing.

AIG's bonus conundrum (Video CNN Money)
Mar 16, 2009 filed under Business News
Fortune's Managing Editor Andy Serwer says the insurance giant needs bonuses to retain top talent.

U.S. credit card defaults rise to 20 year-high

U.S. credit card defaults rise to 20 year-high
March 16, 2009 6:17 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. credit card defaults rose in February to their highest level in at least 20 years, with losses particularly severe at American Express Co and Citigroup amid a deepening recession.
AmEx, the largest U.S. charge card operator by sales volume, said its net charge-off rate -- debts companies believe they will never be able to collect -- rose to 8.70 percent in February from 8.30 percent in January.
The credit card company's shares wiped out early gains and ended down 3.3 percent as loan losses exceeded expectations. Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said American Express credit card losses were 10 basis points larger than forecast.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090316&id=9700831

The Chairman, Ben Bernanke Part 1 and 2 CBS Video

The Chairman Part 1

If you think your job is tough, consider Ben Bernanke`s. As Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the task of reviving the U.S. economy falls largely on his shoulders. Scott Pelley has the interview.



The Chairman Part 2

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke candidly speaks to Scott Pelley about his personal life, as both visit his old high school and how the current financial crisis is affecting Main Street America.

Bernanke May Need to Ramp Up Fed’s Asset Purchases
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Federal Reserve policy makers may have to ramp up their purchases of mortgage securities and other assets after the economy and job market deteriorated further since they last met.
The Federal Open Market Committee, gathering today and tomorrow in Washington, needs to redouble its efforts after the central bank’s balance sheet shrank 17 percent from a $2.3 trillion December peak, Fed watchers said. The retreat came even as Bernanke acknowledged the chance that the unemployment rate will exceed 10 percent for the first time in a quarter century.
“It takes massive balance-sheet expansion to generate significant easing in financial conditions,” said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York who used to work at the Treasury. “More needs to be done.”
This week’s FOMC meeting could mark a shift toward more aggressive monetary expansion to fight deflation after demand waned for many of the Fed’s existing programs. One top consideration is an increase in the pace and size of a $600 billion program to buy bonds issued and backed by U.S. housing agencies such as Fannie Mae, analysts said.

Wen Jiabao is getting 'a little worried', the Chinese way of warning, a shot across the bow.

China's Wen Jiabao concerned about stability of U.S. debt

About half of China's $2-trillion foreign exchange reserves are invested in U.S. government bonds. 'We hope the United States honors its word and ensures the safety of Chinese assets,' Wen says.
March 14, 2009 (Source L.A.Times)
Reporting from Shanghai and Beijing -- Showing China's growing economic muscle, the nation's premier Friday expressed concerns about the stability of U.S. government bonds in Chinese hands and urged Washington to provide assurances to its largest foreign creditor.

"To be honest, we are a little bit worried," Wen Jiabao said at the closing news conference of China's annual legislative session. "We have loaned huge amounts of money to the United States, so of course, we have to be concerned. We hope the United States honors its word and ensures the safety of Chinese assets."

Analysts said that Wen's concerns were natural, given that China holds roughly $1 trillion of U.S. Treasury and other government-backed bonds, and that Washington is now looking to borrow record sums to try to dig out of the recession.
Still, his surprisingly candid comments reflected Beijing's increasing confidence and assertiveness in a global economy in which the communist nation is banker to the world's richest country.
His words would not have been lost on Washington. The White House is counting on China to continue holding American debt and making future purchases to support President Obama's $787-billion economic stimulus plan. China's big appetite for Treasury issues has helped keep U.S. interest rates low and thus supplied cheap credit for Americans to buy homes and other goods.
More to follow...

Will less bad news be good enough?

Investors See a Glimmer and Shares Soar Worldwide
Business ( New York Times Permalink)
By STEVE LOHR and JACK HEALY Published: March 13, 2009
Investors found financial news not as bad as feared, galvanizing worldwide stock exchanges, but few experts are willing to call an end to the bear market.

G20 split over more crisis spending as meeting looms

G20 split over more crisis spending as meeting looms

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Japan and China on Friday backed government spending to fight the global financial crisis, ahead of a G20 meeting at which the United States and Europe are split over the need for more aggressive stimulus measures.
Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano urged world leaders to focus on giving an immediate boost to the global economy and promised to unveil new economic stimulus measures by April. China said it was ready to do more if needed to spur its growth.
"The immediate issues are to stabilize the financial system (and) to get out of the present deflation threat facing the world economy," Yosano was quoted as saying in Friday's edition of the Financial Times. "These two are the most important things."
Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations will meet near Brighton, England, on Friday and Saturday to discuss a roadmap to tackle the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. G20 leaders meet in London on April 2.
But the run-up to this weekend's gathering has been dominated by disagreements over what the summit's priorities should be, and the degree to which countries should ramp up stimulus spending.
Washington is urging the biggest industrialized countries to spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product to boost demand and pull the global economy out of its tailspin, but France and Germany have rejected U.S. and British calls for fresh spending.
"The international community must unite to tackle the downturn and set the path toward a sustainable future," British finance minister Alistair Darling said on Friday in a column in the Wall Street Journal.
"We must do three things: boost demand, reform the global system of financial regulation, and increase the resources of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)." Read Article...

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE52A6D620090313

The Madoff Scandal - Madoff pleads guilty to fraud, says "deeply sorry"

The Madoff Scandal - Madoff pleads guilty to fraud, says "deeply sorry"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bernard Madoff pleaded guilty on Thursday to charges he orchestrated the biggest financial swindle in Wall Street history, cheating investors out of billions of dollars in a fraud whose magnitude shocked the public and drew demands for stricter regulations.
"I cannot adequately express how sorry I am for what I have done," the gray-haired 70-year-old Madoff said as he pleaded guilty to 11 criminal charges.

Here's the AP's list of charges and possibly penalties:

* Count 1: Securities fraud. Maximum penalty: 20 years in prison; fine of the greatest of $5 million or twice the gross gain or loss from the offense; restitution.

* Count 2: Investment adviser fraud. Maximum penalty: Five years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 3: Mail fraud. Maximum penalty: 20 years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 4: Wire fraud. Maximum penalty: 20 years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 5: International money laundering, related to transfer of funds between New York-based brokerage operation and London trading desk. Maximum penalty: 20 years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 6: International money laundering. Maximum penalty: 20 years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 7: Money laundering. Maximum penalty: 10 years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 8: False statements. Maximum penalty: Five years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 9: Perjury. Maximum penalty: Five years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 10: Making a false filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Maximum Penalty: 20 years in prison, fine and restitution.

* Count 11: Theft from an employee benefit plan, for failing to invest pension fund assets on behalf of about 35 labor union pension plans. Maximum penalty: Five years in prison, fine and restitution.

Bernard Madoff arrives at court
(01:03) Rough Cut Video Reuters

MAR 12 - Bernard Madoff arrives at court where he is expected to plead guilty. Alleged victims of his ponzi scheme speak out.
Bernard Madoff, accused of an "unprecedented" $50 billion financial swindle, was charged on Tuesday with 11 criminal counts that could put him in prison for the rest of his life. Wall Street money manager. He is expected to plead guilty to charges that carry a possible sentence of life in prison. Madoff is charged with 11 criminal counts in connection with a $50 billion dollar financial swindle

An economic Grand Bargain? Reuters Video , US President Barack Obama

An economic Grand Bargain?
(01:57) Report Reuters Video

Mar. 11 - As Finance Ministers from the G20 prepare to meet in London, some analysts hope the US and Europe can reach a kind of "grand bargain" on stimulus and regulation.
Deborah Lutterbeck reports.
SOUNDBITE:
# US President Barack Obama

Despite the doom and gloom, the Baltic Dry Index has been ticking up for much of 2009

Despite the doom and gloom, the Baltic Dry Index has been ticking up for much of 2009, and that’s typically a sign we’ve got demand in the economy again. Yes and no, says my guest investor and blogger Paul Kedrosky.
It is a sign that the economy isn’t going to zero: That’s good. But amid the late 2008 panic inventories had gotten so low that an increase in orders is more a re-stocking than it is a recovery.
That said, there are a few speculative bets for investors with a high risk tolerance, especially among semiconductors. Watch the video for Kedrosky’s picks.

Citi: Pandit's Defense Boosts Wall Street

Citi: Pandit's Defense Boosts Wall Street
The bank CEO's talk of profits sparks a stock rally, but others still worry about Citi's toxic assets

(Source Business Week)
Strip away the billions of toxic assets and the billions more that the feds have pumped into Citigroup (C), and what you have is a dandy little bank that actually makes money. At least that was the upbeat takeaway from Citi's beleaguered CEO Vikram Pandit, who distributed a memo to employees late on Mar. 9 about the bank's bright prospects, despite the current $1-a-share price tag.
Pandit emphasized in the memo that the bank was adequately capitalized, had passed stringent self-imposed stress tests, and was profitable through the first two months of 2009, delivering its best performance since the third quarter of 2007. In coming weeks the Treasury Dept. will conduct its own stress tests of banks—assuming further deterioration in the economy, employment, and home prices—on which will hinge further U.S. assistance.

Citigroup has posted more than a year of losses, totaling more than $37.5 billion since it reported a $2.1 billion profit in the third quarter of 2007. Just two years ago, Citigroup was the world's biggest bank by market value, at about $270 billion. But its shares had plummeted from an all-time high of 55 to below 1 last week, for the first time ever, as investors continued to lose confidence in the government bank bailout. At that point, Citi's value had fallen to about $6 billion. Read Article...
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2009/db20090310_761018.htm?chan=investing_investing+index+page_top+stories

Gold outlook retains luster

Gold outlook retains luster
(01:57) Report Reuters Video

Mar. 10 - Gold fell from its $1,000 an ounce peak but fund managers said financial uncertainties will keep alive a safe-haven bid for the precious metal.
Many analysts expect gold to jump back above that high unless the global economic recession takes a turn for the better. Conway Gittens reports from New York.SOUNDBITES:
# Frank Holmes, chief executive, U.S. Global Investors
# Thomas Winmill, president and fund manager, Midas Fund

Uptick Rule. What Does It Mean?

Uptick Rule
What Does It Mean? (Source Investopedia)
What Does Uptick Rule Mean?
A former rule established by the SEC that requires that every short sale transaction be entered at a price that is higher than the price of the previous trade. This rule was introduced in the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as Rule 10a-1. The uptick rule prevents short sellers from adding to the downward momentum when the price of an asset is already experiencing sharp declines. The SEC eliminated the rule on July 6, 2007.

The uptick rule was also be known as the "plus tick rule".
Investopedia Says
Investopedia explains Uptick Rule
By entering a short sale order with a price above the current bid, a short seller ensures that his or her order is filled on an uptick. The uptick rule is disregarded when trading some types of financial instruments such as futures, single stock futures, currencies or market ETFs such as the QQQQ or SPDRs. These instruments can be shorted on a downtick because they are highly liquid and have enough buyers willing to enter into a long position, ensuring that the price will rarely be driven to unjustifiably low levels.

S&P jumps 5 percent after uptick rule talk

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks jumped on Tuesday, extending strong gains after Rep. Barney Frank said he expects the SEC's uptick rule to be restored in about a month.The uptick rule, which only allowed a stock to be sold short when the last sale price was higher than the previous price, was repealed by the SEC in 2007 because the agency found that changes in trading strategies made it ineffective.
Frank added that mark-to-market accounting rule must be improved and made more flexible. A congressional panel is set to conduct a hearing on Thursday.
The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) jumped 326.72 points, or 4.99 percent, to 6,873.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) rallied 38.42 points, or 5.68 percent, to 714.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) shot up 77.19 points, or 6.08 percent, to 1,345.83.

Google on the way to the $200 boundary?

Google struggles to rebound to $300

(Source: By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:30 p.m. EDT March 9, 2009)
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Google Inc. remained below the $300 mark Monday, as investors soured on the search giant in the wake of sobering comments made by its chief executive last week.
(GOOG 290.89, -17.68, -5.7%) stock dipped below $300 on Friday for the first time since late January, and closed Monday's session more than 5% lower at $290.89.
The shares' slide comes roughly a week after Chief Executive Eric Schmidt told an audience at a technology conference that he doesn't see the economy rebounding until 2010. In addition, analysts have issued increasingly negative outlooks for the online-advertising industry. See related story on Schmidt's comments..
Google has also taken the unusual step of allowing employees to exchange their stock options, a move that some analysts have criticized as short-changing outside investors.
On Friday, the company disclosed in a regulatory filing that it's allowing employees -- who may have seen their options become virtually worthless thanks to the falling stock price -- to acquire new options priced at $308.57.
Google has said it needs to implement the stock-option exchange to help retain top talent. However, the net effect is to potentially enable company insiders to profit from gains in Google's stock price in advance of investors who bought shares in the recent past.
The move also comes as Google, along with its peers, is facing increasingly difficult online-advertising conditions.
Last week, Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Christa Quarles lowered her estimates for Google's current fiscal year as well as for 2010, citing "sustained and perhaps increasing weakness in the online-advertising market."

A Rising Dollar Lifts the U.S. but Adds to the Crisis Abroad

Business
A Rising Dollar Lifts the U.S. but Adds to the Crisis Abroad
By PETER S. GOODMAN Published: March 9, 2009 (New York Times Permalink)
As American investors and foreign central banks flock to safe investments like Treasury bills, poorer countries are having a harder time raising money.

How the Crash Will Reshape America

How the Crash Will Reshape America

(Source: The Atlantic Monthly, March 2009)
The current economic crisis is unlikely to result in the same kind of shared experience. To be sure, the economic contraction is causing pain just about everywhere. In October, less than a month after the financial markets began to melt down, Moody’s Economy.com* published an assessment of recent economic activity within 381 U.S. metropolitan areas. Three hundred and two were already in deep recession, and 64 more were at risk. Only 15 areas were still expanding. Notable among them were the oil- and natural-resource-rich regions of Texas and Oklahoma, buoyed by energy prices that have since fallen; and the Greater Washington, D.C., region, where government bailouts, the nationalization of financial companies, and fiscal expansion are creating work for lawyers, lobbyists, political scientists, and government contractors.

No place in the United States is likely to escape a long and deep recession. Nonetheless, as the crisis continues to spread outward from New York, through industrial centers like Detroit, and into the Sun Belt, it will undoubtedly settle much more heavily on some places than on others. Some cities and regions will eventually spring back stronger than before. Others may never come back at all. As the crisis deepens, it will permanently and profoundly alter the country’s economic landscape. I believe it marks the end of a chapter in American economic history, and indeed, the end of a whole way of life.

The economic mess is getting bigger by the day. The bottom, AEX 145, DJIA 4500?

The economic mess is getting bigger by the day, where is the bottom?

(Amsterdam, March 9, 2009, 12.00 CET)
For more than 7 months we have predicted the bottom of the stock market around 180 points for the AEX (Amsterdam, Netherlands) and approximately 6000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wallstreet, U.S.) but now we have to take a more bearish outlook.
For the AEX we expect something around 140 to be reached this year and for the Dow 4500.
The banking troubles are for from over, there is much more bad news on the horizon.
First and 2nd quarter company results do not look very well, McDonald cautions already on the stronger dollar and commodity costs squeezing the first quarter results.
Today the markets get a short impulse of the Merck/Schering-Plough deal, but that's no more than a trickle of good news and not a turn around. Besides, with the markets in a continuous slump the weight of stocks and shares is beginning to look less important, the focus is turning more to the 'real economy'. And the next worry (or disaster?), all this money, the impact on future inflation, etcetera.
The restoration of the global economy will take longer, instead of returning to healthy growth levels in 2010 we reckon with 2012.

A general lack of insight and new ideas is still the prevailing factor worldwide, the public is losing confidence in politicians to get the world out of this mess.
We are waiting for the next wave of innovation, new ideas, solutions and products from the 'Tech sector' to give a boost to the world economy.
Politicians and authorities apologizing for their mistakes or saying the equivalent of "Wir haben es nicht gewusst" are just out and not worth listening to! (Anyway they are a great resource to analyze and study their body language. So they're not completely useless!)

Dow 5000, Revisited
(From the Tech Ticker)
Wall Street is now talking openly about the possibility of the DOW dropping to 5,000 and the S&P 500 to 400-500. This is actually good news. The more negative everyone gets, the more likely we're getting close to a bottom.
(Unfortunately, few strategists are actually predicting the market will hit this level yet. But at least they're talking about it.)
The bad news is that 400-500 on the S&P would still be higher than previous major bear market lows on a price-earnings basis (See Robert Shiller's chart above and "How Low Can The Market Go?"). Fortunately, it's not that much higher.
In the WSJ's story on DOW 5000 today, here's one fact that jumped out:
Between April 8, 1932, and July 8, 1932, stocks fell 34% -- a little more than what it would take to get the S&P to 500.
A level of 500 would take declines for the S&P to 68% since its October 2007 high, compared with the peak-to-trough depression-era slump of almost 90%.
The most persuasive argument we've heard as to why stocks won't crash toward the Depression lows is Paul Kasriel's observation that the government has not yet blown it to the extent that the Hoover administration did. See the post...

Crisis Reveals Growing Finance Gaps for Developing Countries

Crisis Reveals Growing Finance Gaps for Developing Countries
Research shows poorer countries are short of $270- $700 billion for 2009

Washington, March 8, 2009 — Developing countries face a financing shortfall of $270-700 billion this year, as private sector creditors shun emerging markets, and only one quarter of the most vulnerable countries have the resources to prevent a rise in poverty, the World Bank said.
In a paper for next Saturday’s meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors, the World Bank said that international financial institutions cannot by themselves currently cover the shortfall -- that includes public and private debt and trade deficits -- for these 129 countries, even at the lower end of the range. A solution will require governments, multilateral institutions, and the private sector. Only one quarter of vulnerable developing countries have the ability to finance measures to blunt the economic downturn, such as job-creation or safety net programs.“We need to react in real time to a growing crisis that is hurting people in developing countries,” said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick. “This global crisis needs a global solution and preventing an economic catastrophe in developing countries is important for global efforts to overcome this crisis. We need investments in safety nets, infrastructure, and small and medium size companies to create jobs and to avoid social and political unrest.”
The global economy is likely to shrink this year for the first time since World War Two, with growth at least 5 percentage points below potential. World Bank forecasts show that global industrial production by the middle of 2009 could be as much as 15 percent lower than levels in 2008. World trade is on track in 2009 to record its largest decline in 80 years, with the sharpest losses in East Asia.

For more information read:
Swimming Against the Tide:
How Developing Countries Are Coping with the Global Crisis (235k pdf)
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/NEWS/Resources/swimmingagainstthetide-march2009.pdf

For more information on the World Bank please visit:
www.worldbank.org

Retail Sales Probably Fell in February: U.S. Economy Preview

Retail Sales Probably Fell in February: U.S. Economy Preview

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers probably fell in February for the seventh time in eight months as soaring unemployment battered consumers, economists said before a government report this week.
Purchases dropped 0.5 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures due on March 12. Another report may show the trade gap shrank in January as Americans bought fewer goods made abroad.
Consumers are shopping at discounters like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to make ends meet as home values plunge and the jobless rate climbs, forsaking purchases of expensive items like automobiles. President Barack Obama, trying to maintain support for his $787 billion stimulus plan, last week said the deteriorating economy demands “bold action and big ideas.”
“The headwinds are coming from everywhere,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings in New York. “Persistent job losses and reports of pay cuts have become embedded in consumer expectations and they think that incomes are going to shrink.”

Investors seek safety in tech

Investors seek safety in tech

14 Trading Firms Settle Charges for $69 Million

14 Trading Firms Settle Charges for $69 Million
By DIANA B. HENRIQUES Published: March 5, 2009
More than a dozen Wall Street trading firms systematically cheated their customers of millions of dollars by improperly slicing bits of profit from countless trades, federal regulators said on Wednesday.
Business (New York Times Permalink)

Economy in 'Free-Fall': Unemployment Rate Surges to 8.1%, Highest in 25 Years

Economy in 'Free-Fall': Unemployment Rate Surges to 8.1%, Highest in 25 Years
(Source Tech Ticker) Another 651,000 U.S. jobs were lost in February, the Labor Department said today, bringing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 4.4 million. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1%, it's the highest level in 25 years.

P/E ratios (finally) nearing acceptable levels.

P/E ratios going to acceptable levels.
By some measures, P/E ratios are near lows, though it depends how you slice it
(Source MarketWatch)
"There's no doubt that people can look at market valuations and determine that stocks are relatively inexpensive -- but that doesn't mean they're going to quit going down," said Michael Gibbs, director of equity strategy at Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tenn.
The price-to-earnings ratio of stocks in the S&P 500 has sunk to 10.6 from nearly 17 at the end of 2007, says FactSet Research. That's based on the Thursday close of the S&P 500 compared to index members' past four quarters of operating earnings, or net income excluding what analysts consider to be extraordinary charges and gains.
Thomson Reuters, which publishes similar analysis, estimates the trailing P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is around 11.
Those numbers are well below the valuations reached during the market low of the 2001 recession, when the ratio stopped at 19. They're also lower than the P/E ratio of 13 touched at the market bottom during the 1990-1991 recession, says Morgan Keegan, which used data compiled by Yale University's Robert Shiller for its historical research.
But widen out the lens, and P/E ratios have dropped even further in some earlier recessions. During the market low of the early 1980s recession, for example, stocks in the index were trading at a mere 8 times earnings. Read Article...

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106697/Stocks-look-cheap-but-they-could-get-cheaper

Putin's Circus Lions Are Hungry -- and Angry

Putin's Circus Lions Are Hungry -- and Angry
02 March 2009
Putin's Circus Lions Are Hungry -- and Angry

(Source Moscow Times, by Dmitry Oreshkin)
For most countries of the world, the global crisis is strictly economic. But Russia is experiencing two crises simultaneously -- economic and political.
Economic downturns, including the current one, come and go, but Russia's political crisis will never go away. This is because Russia's political model has always been deeply grounded in the myth of monism: one monolithic state, one party, one ideology, one national leader and one people. Those who lived during the Soviet period remember the ubiquitous overblown slogans of "the unity of all Soviet nationalities" or "the unified Soviet nation."
Russia under Vladimir Putin's leadership is doomed by historical inertia and tradition to continue the Soviet monistic model. United Russia is Putin's modern version of the Soviet Union's "United U.S.S.R." -- that is, the Communist Party. Nonetheless, United Russia is not as unified as Putin would like. There is the United Russia faction loyal to State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov, and there is the one loyal to Mayor Yury Luzhkov. Luzhkov rigidly controls the party's membership in Moscow and won't let any federal functionaries get within a mile of holding power.
Of course, you don't have to look very hard to see how empty the concept of a "unified people" really is. A large percentage of the Russian population don't hide their opposition to being "unified" or placed on the same level as the people from the Caucasus. This leads to the country's social schizophrenia. On one hand, Russians passionately supported the Russia-Georgia war to protect their "fellow citizens" in South Ossetia, in accordance with myths of a unified, monolithic superpower. But on the other hand, if they happen to meet one of their repatriated fellow citizens at any one of Moscow's street markets, they are quick to complain that the capital is being invaded by the "dark-skinned scum" from the Caucasus. Read Article...
The article Part I and II is also on the well informed blog 'La Russophobe', http://larussophobe.wordpress.com/2009/03/03/part-i-putins-russia-is-collapsing/

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1016/42/374919.htm

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the global financial crisis to have a strong negative impact on Brazil's economic growth

Brazil Outlook Economy, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the global financial crisis to have a strong negative impact on Brazil's economic growth.

(Source Economist Intelligence Unit) A severe economic slowdown in 2009 and rising unemployment as a result of recession in the developed world will make it much more difficult for the ruling leftist Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) to secure a third term in the October 2010 presidential election.
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the global financial crisis to have a strong negative impact on Brazil's economic growth in the first half of the outlook period. Growth is forecast to decelerate from an estimated 5.3% in 2008 to 1.6% in 2009, before it recovers only modestly to 3.2% in 2010. The 4.1% average annual growth projected for 2011-13 is significantly weaker than the 4.5% average of 2004-08. We anticipate higher inflation (eroding real disposable incomes) and severe credit rationing in 2009, which will weigh on private consumption and investment. We assume that policy continuity will facilitate a modest recovery from 2010 onward, in tandem with trends in the global economy. Brazil's reduced external vulnerability should help the domestic economy to cope with the global economic downturn. However, we expect a weaker exchange rate in 2009-13. The current account will slip into deficit in 2008 and remain in the red in the rest of the forecast period.

Unemployment hits 25-year high

Unemployment hits 25-year high Jobless rate hits 8.1% in February as a record-high 12.5 million people are unemployed.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The U.S. economy continued to hemorrhage jobs in February, bringing total job losses over the last six months to more than 3.3 million, and taking the unemployment rate to its highest level in 25 years.
The government reported Friday that employers slashed 651,000 jobs in February, down from a revised loss of 655,000 jobs in January. December's loss was also revised higher to a loss of 681,000 jobs, a 59-year high for losses in one month.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 650,000 jobs in February.
"The economy is headed south with a vengeance," said Kurt Karl, head of economic research for the U.S. unit of insurer Swiss Re.
The unemployment rate rose to 8.1% from 7.6% in January. It was the highest reading since December 1983 and higher than economists' projections of 7.9%.
Most workers who have jobs today are not old enough to have worked in a labor market this bad, while 13% of workers weren't even alive the last time unemployment was at this level.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/06/news/economy/jobs_february/index.htm?postversion=2009030610

Franse werkloosheid onverwacht sterk gestegen

Franse werkloosheid onverwacht sterk gestegen


(Source DFT, De Telegraaf) PARIJS (AFN) - De werkloosheid in Frankrijk is in het laatste kwartaal van vorig jaar onverwacht sterk gestegen tot 8,2 procent van de beroepsbevolking. Dat maakte het Franse bureau voor de statistiek donderdag bekend.
Een kwartaal eerder zat 7,6 procent van de Franse beroepsbevolking zonder baan. Analisten hielden voor het vierde kwartaal rekening met een stijging tot 7,7 procent. Het aantal werklozen in Frankrijk nam, afgezien van de overzeese departementen, in de laatste drie maanden van het jaar met 187.000 toe tot bijna 2,2 miljoen.
Werkgevers verwachten dat de werkloosheid de komende maanden door de economische recessie steeds sneller zal oplopen. Vorige week maakte het Franse ministerie van Werkgelegenheid al bekend dat er alleen in januari van dit jaar alweer 90.000 nieuwe werklozen bij zijn gekomen.

French January jobless figures at historic high
Wednesday 25 February 2009
The number of unemployed people in France jumped 90,200 in January (+4.3%), according to figures released by the economic ministry.

152nd (Ordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna, March 15

152nd (Ordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference

Next OPEC Meeting in Vienna
Sunday, 15 March 2009
Vienna, Austria
http://www.opec.org/home/

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Monthly Oil Market Report, February 2009 (Download PDF)
The Monthly Oil Market Report contains a wealth of information, including developments in the world economy, data on oil prices, supply and demand, crude and product stocks and much more.

World Oil Outlook 2008 (Download PDF)
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2008 is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability and a means to highlight and further understand many of the possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead of the oil industry. The publication is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and others within the industry.

ECB expected to cut rates to lowest level since the introduction of the Euro

ECB expected to cut rates to lowest level since the introduction of the Euro
(March 5, 2009)

Online and in real time: ECB press conference, from its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
At 2.30 p.m. CET the ECB President and Vice-President explain the Governing Council's monetary policy decisions and answer journalists' questions.
Webcast of ECB press conference on 5 March 2009
http://www.thomson-webcast.net/de/dispatching/?ecb_090305_stream_video

The European Central Bank has cut its main interest rate by a half percentage point to 1.5 percent amid increasingly grim economic news.

The Bank of England earlier Thursday cut its rates by a half percentage point to 0.5 percent.

Bank of England (BoE) expected to move towards Quantitative Easing (QE)

G20 London Summit. On the 2 April 2009 world leaders will gather in London to address the global financial crisis.

The London Summit (April 2, 2009)
On the 2 April 2009 world leaders will gather in London to address the global financial crisis.
The London Summit brings together leaders of the world’s advanced and emerging economies, including the G20, and representatives of international financial institutions to work cooperatively to restore stability and stimulate global economic growth.

The Summit aims to reach international agreement on:
* coordinated actions to revive the global economy - to stimulate growth and employment
* reforming and improving financial sectors and systems - to deliver progress on the Washington Action Plan to build better financial systems
* principles for reform of international financial institutions (IFIs) - the International Monetary Fund, Financial Stability Forum and World Bank.
http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/

Global update - Global Crisis - London Summit
This website is a global hub for debate for the London Summit. As the Summit draws closer we're highlighting contributions to this global conversation from around the world - including in local languages.
Highlighting the debate in all countries that are significantly affected by this global crisis.

Brown's global call
(02:12) Report Reuters Video
Mar. 4 - UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown told a joint session of the US Congress that the economic crisis calls for a global response.

Brown will host a Group of 20 summit next month in London. He'll seek agreement on a coordinated plan to boost the global economy as it faces its worst crisis in decades. Deborah Lutterbeck reports from Washington. SOUNDBITES:
# Morris Goldstein of the Peterson Institute for International Economics
# UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown

Investors fret over GE Capital, as GE shares slide

Investors fret over GE Capital, as GE shares slide

BOSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co investors have one big worry these days: Is its hefty GE Capital finance arm -- the main reason for a 2008 profit drop -- poised to handle the worst economic downturn in decades?
Analysts and investors have pounded the U.S. conglomerate's shares to their lowest level since the early 1990s this week as they wrestle with the question of whether the finance operation -- which a few years ago represented half of GE's profits -- is adequately prepared for a surge in defaults by increasingly unemployed consumers and tottering mid-sized businesses.
The fear is that GE's planning for the unit, which anticipates a 42 percent fall in profit and rising defaults, may not be sufficiently bearish.
"It's not as if the world has confidence in any security, but this team has managed to just shatter investor confidence by continually being more upbeat than they deserve to be," said Charles Ortel, managing director of securities research firm Newport Value Partners in New York, which does not hold a position in GE shares.
Investors fear GE Capital's reserves for losses are too low in comparison with the top U.S. banks. Read more...

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5235NJ20090304

World stock markets rebound on Chinese stimulus hopes, Shanghai leads recovery

World stocks rebound on China stimulus hopes
Wednesday March 4, 6:43 am ET

World stock markets rebound on Chinese stimulus hopes, Shanghai leads recovery

LONDON (AP) --(From Yahoo Finance) Stock markets in Europe and Asia rebounded Wednesday amid mounting hopes that China will soon announce a big stimulus package that could help limit the length and depth of the recession in the industrialized world.
A legislative meeting starts Thursday in China and top of the agenda is what the government can do to lift growth rates, which have fallen in the wake of the global economic downturn. As one of the few major economies still expanding, China is being closely watched amid hopes its demand and trade can help the world weather the most severe global slowdown in decades.

Chinese shares led Wednesday's advance, with Shanghai's index jumping more than 6 percent to close at 2,198.11.
"Obviously, this unusual rally suggests that investors are overly optimistic about what to expect from the legislature. They think the government will do more to boost spending to stimulate the economy," said Peng Yunliang, an analyst with Shanghai Securities in Shanghai.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was up 61.24 points, or 0.9 percent, to 7,290.96, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 297.27, or 2.5 percent, to 12,331.15. South Korea's Kospi climbed 3.3 percent to 1,059.26.
Markets in Singapore, Taiwan and New Zealand also gained. Australia's index shed 1.6 percent.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares recovered from six-year lows to rise 66.42 points, or 1.9 percent, to 3,578.51, while Germany's DAX was up 99.38 points, or 2.7 percent, at 3,790.10. The CAC-40 in France was 54.05 points, or 2.1 percent, higher at 2,608.60.

The Markets today (March 3, 2009, 19.00 CET)

Asian Markets closed slightly down with the exception of the Shanghai market (minus 2.30 percent).
European Markets were in the green most of the day but turned red after Wall Street 's opening. However the losses were limited except for the Footsie with a more than 3 percent loss.
In Amsterdam the AEX closed just above the 200 points level at 202.57 with a 3 percent loss.
Wallstreet was up at the beginning of the morning session, than turned negative and is now (19.00 CET, Amsterdam) hoovering around yesterday's close and going down again.
Ford came out with a dismal report about the February U.S. car sales which fell 48 percent despite huge rebates and low-interest financing.

Inside the Bear Stearns boiler room

Inside the Bear Stearns boiler room
Exclusive book excerpt: Bestselling author William Cohan uncovers the inner workings of the misadventure that brought down Bear Stearns and foreshadowed the financial crisis to come.
By William D. Cohan Last Updated: March 3, 2009: 9:45 AM ET

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Years from now, when academics search for causes of the stock market crash of 2008, they will focus on the pivotal role of mortgage-backed securities. These exotic financial instruments allowed a downturn in U.S. home prices to morph into a contagion that brought down Bear Stearns a year ago this month - and more recently have brought the global banking system to its knees.
What scholars should not miss is the role that the human element - call it greed or ignorance - played in this tragedy. In an exclusive excerpt from William Cohan's new book, "House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street," to be published March 10 by Doubleday, the bestselling author sheds light on the bankers who thought they had mastered what Warren Buffett has called "financial weapons of mass destruction."


By looking back to the roots of the misadventure in which Bear Stearns traders Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin lost roughly $1.6 billion while allegedly misleading investors, Cohan illustrates how the missteps of the few can have consequences for the many.

Is the Dow's next stop 5,000 or 10,000?

Is the Dow's next stop 5,000 or 10,000?
(Source TIME Permalink Read Article)
To get answers, TIME's John Curran spoke with Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Well Capital Management:
If the stock market rallies in the weeks ahead, is there any reason to believe in it?
Well, I don't know why there wouldn't be. But I'm interested in the way you phrased your question because it is exactly where the consensus is today. There is absolutely every belief that we could go lower; and while we could rally, the belief is that it won't stick. It just says volumes about where we are right now. It's not just you. Even bulls like myself have that same feeling in their depths.

The Eurozone has contracted significantly in the last quarter and the beginning of 2009 (CNBC Video)

The Eurozone has contracted significantly in the last quarter and the beginning of 2009. As such, Rainer Guntermann, Eurozone economist at Dresdner Kleinwort doesn't expect things to deteriorate much further from here. He speaks with CNBC's Rebecca Meehan & Maura Fogarty.

Governments must maintain reforms for long-term growth during crisis, says OECD

Governments must maintain reforms for long-term growth during crisis, says OECD

Watch the webcast of the press conference

03/03/2009 - The current crisis offers governments the opportunity of combining emergency action with the important structural reforms needed to improve long-term growth and resilience in their economies, according to OECD’s latest Going for Growth.
"The debacle in financial markets does not call into question the beneficial effects of recommended reforms of product and labour markets”, said OECD Chief Economist Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. Read his speech in full.
Going for Growth identifies key reforms to raise living standards in each OECD country. It points out that a number of policies, if carefully implemented, can both boost demand in the short term to soften the impact of the recession, and also raise economic growth over the long term.
http://interwebcast.oecd.org/conferences/1_403/en/event_medias/video.wvx

World's Most Admired Companies 2009(Fortune/CNN)

World's Most Admired Companies 2009(Fortune/CNN)
For the 50 most admired companies overall, FORTUNE's survey asked businesspeople to vote for the companies that they admired most, from any industry.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/mostadmired/2009/full_list/index.html

363 Most Admired companies
An alphabetical index of all Most Admired companies from the top 50 survey and industry rankings this year.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/mostadmired/2009/top363/index.html

Economy Much Worse Than Roubini Predicted (Tech Ticker Video)

Even 'Dr. Doom' Is Scared: Economy Much Worse Than Roubini Predicted

A year ago Roubini was forecasting an 18-month recession with a U-shaped recovery; now, he's now expecting the downturn to last at least 24 months and possibly 36-months. He also sees rising risks of a Japanese-style L-shaped stagnation, i.e. a prolonged period with little or no economic growth.
"I was one of most bearish people [but] the economy has surprised the bears on the downside," says Roubini of NYU's Stern School and RGE Monitor. "What's happening in the world now is scary."

A Bloody Monday?

A Bloody Monday?

(Amsterdam 14.00 CET. March 2, 2009)
With Asian Markets closing with near 4 percent losses, AIG reporting a very bad 4th quarter with a stunning $ 62.7 Billion loss, and European Markets approaching 4 percent losses in the morning sessions it does not look very well for World Stock Markets today.
The Futures Opening for U.S. Markets do not help to create an optimistic mood, and rumours about "A Bloody Monday" are popping up on the Internet.
What is true we will see at the end of the day in another 9 hours, but the outlook is as worst as possible with the Dow closing well below 7000.

Wall Street heads for another big drop
Monday March 2, 8:46 am ET By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
(Source Yahoo Finance) Stock futures lower despite higher personal spending, incomes as AIG gets more gov't funding
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street headed for another big drop even as the government reported gains in personal income and spending.
Stock futures pared losses only slightly after the Commerce Department said Monda that incomes rose 0.4 percent and personal spending rose 0.6 percent in January. Both gauges were better than expected.
Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 125, or 1.77 percent, to 6,927. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures and Nasdaq 100 index futures were also down about 2 percent.
Stock futures were already lower after American International Group Inc. posted a quarterly loss of $61.7 billion. The government, which has already given AIG $150 billion in loans, said it would give the insurer another $30 billion.


US Futures & Markets Indicators (14.30 CET Amsterdam)
Dec 2008 Change Level Last Update
S&P 500 -17.20 717.00 3/2 8:21am S&P 500 FUTURES
Fair Value 734.18 2/28 1:48pm
Difference* -17.18
NASDAQ -21.00 1096.00 3/2 8:15am NASDAQ FUTURES
Fair Value 1116.96 2/28 1:48pm
Difference* -20.96
Dow Jones -122.00 6930.00 3/2 8:18am
Although markets can get hit and will close down today we do not expect (another) genuine crash.

(Source: DFT De Telegraaf. Nieuwe AEX indeling)
Beleggers op Beursplein 5 moeten vanaf morgen rekening houden met de nieuwe indeling van de Amsterdamse beurs. In de AEX verdwijnen financiële concern Fortis en uitzender USG People. Hun plaats wordt ingenomen door luchtvaartmaatschappij Air France KLM en baggeraar Boskalis. De nieuwe rangschikking wordt maandag nabeurs ingevoerd.