Averting the next energy crisis: The demand challenge. The McKinsey Report

Averting the next energy crisis: The demand challenge. The McKinsey Report
Global energy-demand growth is expected to flatten in the short term but will rebound with recovery. Indeed, there is potential for liquids-demand growth to outpace that of supply—risking a new spike in oil as soon as 2010 to 2013, depending on the depth of the economic downturn.
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/next_energy_crisis/index.asp

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Chapter 1: Energy demand set to rebound after short lull
Since GDP is the most important driver of energy demand and the trajectory of world economic growth is exceedingly uncertain, the report presents several scenarios for energy-demand growth to give a feel for the range of outcomes possible. It examines energy-demand growth across end-use sectors and regions and by fuel type.
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Chapter 2: Liquids-demand tightness could return between 2010 and 2013
Liquids demand will be stagnant in the short term due to impact of high prices in 2007 and the credit squeeze. MGI’s moderate case projects that liquids demand will grow only weakly by 0.4 percent in 2009 but will rebound in 2010 to post growth of 2.1 percent.
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Chapter 3: Sectoral demand outlooks
Light-duty vehicles
The light-duty vehicles sector accounts for about 70 percent of the total road-transport sector, which is crucial to gaining an understanding the evolution of petroleum. MGI finds that energy demand from light vehicles is set to grow at 1.9 per annum to 2020. Adding to energy demand is extremely rapid growth in the vehicle stock in China, the Middle East, and India. However, robust new-vehicle efficiency standards—particularly but not exclusively in developed countries—offset this trend.
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