Is the recession over?

Is the recession over?
Some experts point to stabilization in the housing and job markets as signs the recession has ended. Others continue to see weeds - not green shoots.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The recession began in December 2007. Did it end sometime this spring?

It's a provocative question that's tough to answer. It's tempting to say the recession is over when that seems to be what the stock market is telling us.

But Wall Street hardly has a perfect track record: There were numerous bear market rallies during the Great Depression, for example.

Stocks also enjoyed a nice run last spring after Bear Stearns almost imploded, even though the collapses of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), Lehman Brothers and AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) were still yet to come.

"With all due respect to Mr. Market, it is highly fallible as a forward looking barometer," said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, a Toronto-based wealth management firm.
The bear case: 'Less bad' does not equal good

The jump in stocks also poses another chicken-versus-egg question: Is the market rallying because people think the recession is over or do people think the recession is over because the stock market is rallying?

If it's the latter, that's not necessarily great news. Rosenberg said he thinks it's "beyond bizarre" to say the recession is over. The economy may have pulled out of the free fall that took place from September through February, he said, but that shouldn't be confused with a bottom.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/19/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2009062008