The first full trading week of 2009

The first full trading week of what promises to become a very turbulent and volatile year.

(Monday January 5th, 2009, 11.30 CET, Amsterdam)
On the first full trading week of 2009, Asian markets built on Wallstreet's Friday rally and closed up higher with substantial gains. In a shortened half-day session, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock average gained 183.56 points, or 2.1 percent, to 9,043.12, its first finish above the 9,000-point line since Nov. 10.
In greater China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 3.5 percent to 15,563.31 and Shanghai's key index gained 3.3 percent to 1,880.72. Singapore's benchmark jumped 4.5 percent, with stock measures in Taiwan, India, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand higher as well.

In Europe the markets opened all higher with very moderate gains, the mood seems to be cautious.
The ECB and the Fed are on the path of 'deflation fighting'. The ECB is expected to lower interest rates again on the 15th of January, 0.50% or 0.75% , is the analysts' consensus.
In calmer times, most bankers would happily offer a prediction when asked what they expected in the coming year. But after the trauma of the past 18 months, the consensus among those bank executives "who have managed to hang on to their jobs" is that they have no idea what will happen next. At the same time we do not hear very much from politicans and other authorities.
May be the traditional 'New Year Speeches' will offer a bit more insight.

This weekend more news came out about the Obama Stimulus Plan for the U.S. Economy. President-elect Obama's pick for commerce secretary Bill Richardson, has withdrawn his name owing to an investigation into a company doing business with his state of New Mexico.
American Markets are expected to open mixed, pre-market indicators point to the downward side.

Important figures this week: November construction spending, auto sales reports, a survey on the services sector, November factory orders, and chain store sales.
All of these indicators about the 'real' economy will offer little or no hope. For the markets this is of minor importance, indicators can be better or worser than expected. The first arriving 4th quarter reports and results can have more impact.
With at the moment no clear direction and concensus about 2009, 2010 and 2011, the markets will mostly be influenced by emotion and "the news of the day".
In 2009 we can expect more political- and social unrest, due to global deteriorating circumstances.