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Sunday, January 4, 2009

2009 Forecast: That bad huh?

2009 Forecast: That bad huh?

(An Opinion from Accrued Interest Blog)
One is that in the debt markets, the fundamental outlook has generally been good. You had persistently low inflation, mostly low volatility, and a growing economy. Sure, some bonds went bad, but for the most part, the fundamental picture was good. The problem was always valuation. You'd look at a corporate bond and see a whopping 100bps spread or something and it would seem like all downside, no upside risk. But of course, you had to buy something, so you'd hold your nose and buy it.
Now its just the opposite. The fundamental outlook is piss poor, but the valuations look extremely cheap across all risk sectors.
http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2009/01/2009-forecast-that-bad-huh.html

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good article, but contains nothing special or shocking. Liquidity has been the topic #1 for many financial institutions for some months now. Negative growth and inflation near 0% are almost sure thing too...
Regards,
Elli