Will less bad news be good enough?

Investors See a Glimmer and Shares Soar Worldwide
Business ( New York Times Permalink)
By STEVE LOHR and JACK HEALY Published: March 13, 2009
Investors found financial news not as bad as feared, galvanizing worldwide stock exchanges, but few experts are willing to call an end to the bear market.

14 Trading Firms Settle Charges for $69 Million

14 Trading Firms Settle Charges for $69 Million
By DIANA B. HENRIQUES Published: March 5, 2009
More than a dozen Wall Street trading firms systematically cheated their customers of millions of dollars by improperly slicing bits of profit from countless trades, federal regulators said on Wednesday.
Business (New York Times Permalink)

A Bloody Monday?

A Bloody Monday?

(Amsterdam 14.00 CET. March 2, 2009)
With Asian Markets closing with near 4 percent losses, AIG reporting a very bad 4th quarter with a stunning $ 62.7 Billion loss, and European Markets approaching 4 percent losses in the morning sessions it does not look very well for World Stock Markets today.
The Futures Opening for U.S. Markets do not help to create an optimistic mood, and rumours about "A Bloody Monday" are popping up on the Internet.
What is true we will see at the end of the day in another 9 hours, but the outlook is as worst as possible with the Dow closing well below 7000.

Wall Street heads for another big drop
Monday March 2, 8:46 am ET By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
(Source Yahoo Finance) Stock futures lower despite higher personal spending, incomes as AIG gets more gov't funding
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street headed for another big drop even as the government reported gains in personal income and spending.
Stock futures pared losses only slightly after the Commerce Department said Monda that incomes rose 0.4 percent and personal spending rose 0.6 percent in January. Both gauges were better than expected.
Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 125, or 1.77 percent, to 6,927. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures and Nasdaq 100 index futures were also down about 2 percent.
Stock futures were already lower after American International Group Inc. posted a quarterly loss of $61.7 billion. The government, which has already given AIG $150 billion in loans, said it would give the insurer another $30 billion.


US Futures & Markets Indicators (14.30 CET Amsterdam)
Dec 2008 Change Level Last Update
S&P 500 -17.20 717.00 3/2 8:21am S&P 500 FUTURES
Fair Value 734.18 2/28 1:48pm
Difference* -17.18
NASDAQ -21.00 1096.00 3/2 8:15am NASDAQ FUTURES
Fair Value 1116.96 2/28 1:48pm
Difference* -20.96
Dow Jones -122.00 6930.00 3/2 8:18am
Although markets can get hit and will close down today we do not expect (another) genuine crash.

(Source: DFT De Telegraaf. Nieuwe AEX indeling)
Beleggers op Beursplein 5 moeten vanaf morgen rekening houden met de nieuwe indeling van de Amsterdamse beurs. In de AEX verdwijnen financiële concern Fortis en uitzender USG People. Hun plaats wordt ingenomen door luchtvaartmaatschappij Air France KLM en baggeraar Boskalis. De nieuwe rangschikking wordt maandag nabeurs ingevoerd.

Will The Economic Crisis Split East And West In Europe?

Will The Economic Crisis Split East And West In Europe?
Nouriel Roubini, 02.26.09, 12:01 AM EST
The meltdown puts huge pressure on the E.U.'s free-market rules.

(Nouriel Roubini co-wrote this essay with Mary Stokes, Jelena Vukotic and Elisa Parisi-Capone, analysts at Roubini Global Economics.)

The Central and Eastern Europe region is the sick man of emerging markets. While the global crisis means few--if any--bright spots worldwide, the situation in the CEE area is particularly bleak. After almost a decade of outpacing worldwide growth, the region looks set to contract in 2009, with almost every country either in or on the verge of recession.
The once high-flying Baltics--Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania--look headed for double-digit contractions, while countries relatively less affected by the crisis--the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia--will have a hard time posting even positive growth. Meanwhile, Hungary and Latvia's economies have already deteriorated to the point where International Monetary Fund (IMF) help was needed late last year.
Central and Eastern Europe's ill health is primarily driven by two factors: collapsing exports and the drying up of capital inflows. Exports were key to the region's economic success, accounting for 80% to 90% of gross domestic product in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. By far the biggest market for CEE goods is the Eurozone, now in recession.
Meanwhile, the global credit crunch has sapped capital inflows to the region. An easy flow of credit fueled Eastern Europe's boom in recent years, but the good times are gone. According to the Institute of International Finance, net private capital flows to emerging Europe are projected to fall from an estimated $254 billion in 2008 to $30 billion in 2009. Whether this is formally considered a "sudden stop" of capital or not, it will necessitate a very painful adjustment process. Read more...
http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/25/eastern-europe-eu-banks-euro-opinions-columnists_nouriel_roubini.html

U.S. Stock markets are closed on Monday

Monday the 19th of January the American stock markets are closed for a National Holiday, Martin Luther King Day.
On Tuesday the 20th we have Inauguration Day when Barack Obama will be sworn in as the 44th president of the United States. Public Offices will be closed but the Stock Markets remain open.
Around 180 Companies are reporting results this week.
Traders expect stocks to get a boost from the Inauguration, but diappointing earnings and results could dampen the enthousiasm.
The 4th Quarter earnings are the most important indication for the markets at the moment and going to set the direction for the coming months.
The market has largely written off the first half of 2009 and the upcoming bad news is mostly incalculated. Unexpected (good or bad news) events can however have a large impact on the mood of the day and on the global markets. Investors risk their money and they want returns, not words, plans or promises.

Wall Street's year in turmoil

Wall Street's year in turmoil (Reuters Video, 03:47 Report)
Dec 30 - 2008 was a roller coaster ride of bad news leaving investors bracing themselves for what's next.
2008 went from bad to worse. The housing crisis led to a devastating credit freeze that spread to the banks and eventually infected the entire U.S. financial system, crushing confidence in the U.S. economy.

The effect of the 'Madoff Mess' on the Markets

On Friday December 12 the news broke that the ex-Nasdaq Chairman Bernard Madoff was arrested and charged with operating a multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme from his investment advisory business.
The total amount of the fraud is yet unclear but can easily reach 50.- Billion U.S. Dollar which makes it a record amount ever for a Ponzi Scheme.
Bernard Madoff was heavily involved with the $1.5 Trillion hedge fund industry and had wealthy clients from all over the world.
It took a while before the news spread around but already rumors are circulating about funds that will be wiped out in the next future.
With the world stock markets in a shaky condition and the recession deepening we can expect in the days, weeks and months ahead, investors running for the exit and even some 'classic panic scenes' emerging.

This latest affair, 'The Madoff Mess' is beginning to raise seroius questions about the mental health of - generally- very trusted people like; finanicial authorities, stock brokers, bankers, advisors and so on.
Bernard Madoff, an Ex-Nasdaq chairman with obviously the status of a Very Trusted Person (VTP), simply turned out to be a fraud.
At the same time it raises questions about the mental health of the people trusting their money to him.
Good stuff for a book anyway: "The Financial World runned by a Bunch of Egocentric Lolly Loonies"

(Dec 14) Reports are circulating about Swiss Banks being hit for 4 Billion U.S. Dollar by the Madoff Fraud. A fair amount of wealthy and distinghuised instutions from the American East Coast are among the victims as well. The list of victims is growing, not only among the wealthy and powerful.

December 26. What drove Bernie Madoff? (Article on CNN Money)
An intense competitive streak may have fueled the flames of one of Wall Street's greatest frauds.
But inside was the drive of an intensely competitive person.
"There's a need to prove to the world that I am somebody powerful -- I am so intelligent," said psychologist Alden Cass, president of Competitive Streak Consulting, who has counseled and studied Wall Street personalities.


(Reuters) Madoff's alleged $50 billion fraud hits other investors

(CNN Money/Fortune)'Financial psychopaths' wreak havoc
The damage done in cases of Bernard Madoff and Marc Dreier doesn't end with investors.

Wall Street's Latest Downfall: Madoff Charged with Fraud (Time.com)
Bernard Madoff, the former Nasdaq chairman who was charged on Thursday with massive fraud, was long considered to be quirky. Employees at the offices of his eponymously named brokerage firm in midtown Manhattan's Lipstick Building had to follow strict rules for what they kept on their desk. Family photos were allowed but only if they were displayed in a simple black frame.

Market Outlook for the rest of December 2008.

Market Outlook for the rest of December 2008.

An outlook and expectation for the stock markets for the rest of the year.
( Dec 11, Amsterdam 10.30 GMT +1)

With China having had its worst month for exports in 7 years in November it looks like Asian markets are getting more prudent and consolidating. Oil prices head up in Asia ahead of the OPEC meeting in Algeria on the 17th of December.
The OPEC which accounts for 40% of Oil Production in the world is expected to cut output by 2 million barrels per day.
Asian markets are lackluster for the moment and expected to sink again.

Companies are using the current crises to lay off more people. A number of large U.S. employers announced layoffs this week, including Dow Chemical Co., 3M Co., Anheuser-Busch InBev, National Public Radio and the National Football League. The U.S. auto-industry emergency loan plan is taking shape although nobody seems to know what to do next. It is a gigantic problem with dire consequenses.
Brokers and Banks are propping up balance sheets before year end. The recent end of November rally is running out of steam. More deep and dire economic news analysis is appearing almost every day.
We do expect the U.S. markets to go down before year end.
All eyes are on the Obama plan.

In Europe a rift is showing up between the 'Brownites' and the Germans with the almost paralyzed Dutch Government having no plan at all but still waiting for new information. ( A few snippets of news are sippling through about the Dutch Government becoming less wasteful with tax payers money).
The trend and outlook for European markets is negative.

The speed and impact of the current crisis on all levels of society spreading around the world, is really amazing and in some cases stunnishing.

Monday global stock markets in jubilant mood

The markets worldwide are in a jubilant mood at the beginning of this week (Dec 8).
A wave of Euphoria?

(Amsterdam, 11.15CET)
Asian markets up on further rate cuts and stimulus packages in the Far East.
Cyclicals, base metals and mining are up.

European markets following last Friday's Wallstreet's close.
U.S. markets to open higher on (meager) news of bailout money for Detroit 3. The markets seem to be geared up for the Christmas rally. More government stimulus packages are being developed.
But analysts are skeptical and expect it won't last long, the bears are just flexing their muscle. More real bad news for the global economies are in the pipeline. However, for the moment the bulls are enjoying the party. Sparks of hope flaring up! But a lot of it is based on rumors and snippets of good news.
President-elect Obama warned this weekend for too high expectations and hinted that 2009 will be very difficult. Keynesian infra-structure spending plan is under further construction.
For now it looks like investors are inspired by and follow the 'Buffet example' and have their eyes on the cyclicals and base industries. Properties stocks and financials doing pretty good as well.
Generally investors are hunting for more clues about the Economy, but confidence in Financial markets is not restored. Gold and Platinum were slightly up.

Investors are taking the long view

Investors are beginning to take the long view after all the bad economic reports.
Stocks rallied on Wallstreet Friday (Dec 5th) despite a particularly bad report about the Jobs Market in the U.S. (533.000 job losses in November).
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 260 points or 3.1%. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index added 3.7% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 4.4%.
It is beginning to look like a short Chritmas rally after all.

From CNN Money
"The report this morning confirmed the fears that the economy is worse off than economists had expected," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "But we're kind of seeing the reaction today that we've seen over the last few days, where there's extremely negative news on the economy, yet the market manages to hold its own."
Stocks still ended lower for the week following Monday's steep selloff. On that day the Dow lost 680 points after the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirmed what many have long believed - that the economy is in a recession. The NBER put the start at December 2007.

Nov 30th. The Stock Market, the week ahead

Black Friday turned out to be not as bad as expected, although steep discounts were given. Bargain hunting is trump this year. Tomorrow (Monday Dec 1st) is 'Cyber Monday' in the U.K.
The markets had a very good week last week, we can expect profit taking in the next days. The terrorist attack in Mumbai can have a profound psychological impact om the (Asian) markets as well. Torrow morning we can give more news and the latest updates.

When you want to get detailed financial information take a look at CNBC TV in the morning,

Wall St Week Ahead: Stocks eye dour jobs, shopping data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street may struggle this week to build on its best weekly performance in almost 30 years as investors grapple with a raft of economic data, including the November jobs report, that will likely provide more evidence of a deep economic downturn.
This week, investors will keenly watch retail sales to see if consumers opened their wallets and began buying gifts on Black Friday, as the day after Thanksgiving is known. It's the traditional start of the holiday shopping season and usually one of the year's biggest shopping days.
But this time, holiday sales forecasts are grim as the end of easy credit and rising unemployment have made consumers more frugal.
Wall Street ended last week's holiday-shortened run in the black, snapping a weeks-long losing streak as investors were encouraged by the U.S. government's bailout of Citigroup.