Barron's Editor Michael Santoli speaks about the slump in trading during the summer.

Eerie Calm of Summer Trading
6/22/2009
Barron's Editor Michael Santoli speaks about the slump in trading during the summer.

Blue Chips Linger in the Red for '09

Blue Chips Linger in the Red for '09
Dow Industrials Come Up Short in Push to Erase Year-to-Date Losses

(Source Wall Street Journal)
Blue chips came tantalizingly close to turning positive for the year on Friday, but ultimately fell short amid volatile trading after a mixed employment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 12.89 points, or 0.2%, to 8763.13, leaving the 30-stock benchmark down just 0.2% for 2009. Boeing shares leapt 4% and Hewlett-Packard rose 3.5%, but more Dow components fell than rose. DuPont, which suffered an analyst downgrade, fell 6%, and Merck, which said it's shelving plans to seek approval for a heart-failure drug this year, sank 1.9%.
The S&P 500-stock index slipped 2.37 points, or 0.3%, to 940.09. Its energy and basic-materials sectors were weak, tumbling 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively. The broad stock measure is up 4.1% for the year to date.

For the week, the Dow jumped 3.1%. It has gained in 11 of the last 13 weeks and gained 32% in that span -- the best 13-week period since November 1982, when it soared 34%. The S&P 500 rose 2.3% this week. It also has risen in 11 of the last 13 weeks, and climbed 38% during that stretch.

Energy stocks played a major role in stocks' gains this week, as crude-oil futures rose 3.2% on the week. But crude pulled back somewhat on Friday, settling down 37 cents at $68.44 a barrel in New York and throwing a little cold water on stocks.

"I think it's a little premature to get excited about the run in commodities as it's kind of a relief rally," said Stephen Lieber, chief investment officer for Alpine Dynamic Balance Fund. "There are people hopped up on the notion China and emerging markets will reinflate the world economy."

The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.60 point, or 0.03%, to 1849.42. It has climbed 17% this year, and was up 4.2% this week. It has risen in 12 of the last 13 weeks and jumped 43% in that time. The Nasdaq has surged 46% since it hit a six-and-a-half year closing low of 1268.64 hit on March 9. Read Article... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124419863671788589.html

US stock futures soar on fewer job losses

US stock futures soar on fewer job losses
Wall Street heads to higher open as report says employers cut fewer-than-expected jobs in May

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock futures surged Friday as investors cheered a government report that said employers cut fewer jobs than expected last month.

The Labor Department said 345,000 jobs were lost in May, significantly less than the half-million job losses economists had been expecting and the fewest job losses since September.

However, the unemployment rate surged to a slightly higher-than-expected 9.4 percent from 8.9 percent in April, proving that companies are still reluctant to hire back laid off workers.
But investors looked beyond the higher unemployment rate and instead took the slower pace of layoffs for a fourth month in a row as a sign that unemployment is stabilizing.

Unemployment has been one of the most closely watched gauges of the economy's health throughout the recession. Rising job losses affect vast areas of the economy, including consumer spending, retail sales and the housing market.

Ahead of the market's open, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 113, or 1.3 percent, to 8,843, after being up about 33 points prior to the report. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures jumped 13.70, or 1.5 percent, to 954.20, while Nasdaq 100 index futures gained 14.25, or 1.0 percent, to 1,507.25.

UP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY The Market's Formula: A Square-Root Rally

UP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY
The Market's Formula: A Square-Root Rally

(Source BARRONS)By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
After nailing a 40% surge since early March, Doug Kass sees "potholes" in the road ahead.
LONG-TIME SHORT-SELLER Doug Kass shocked many of his followers by turning bullish at the beginning of March -- just before the stock market took off on a 40% tear.

Now, with the major averages up sharply from what he called at the time "generational lows," the skipper of Seabreeze Partners sees the road ahead to higher ground strewn with potholes.
Speaking at a conference presented by Barry Ritholtz, the money manager and author of the popular Big Picture blog, Kass recalled that when he made his bullish call in early March, stocks had been through their second-worst bear market ever in terms of price and multiple compression.
Price-earnings multiples had fallen to levels consistent with 6% inflation, while 46% of the Standard & Poor's 500 stocks paid dividend yields exceeding the Treasury 10-year note. Other valuation measures also were rock-bottom; stocks traded at 90% of replacement value while the market's capitalization was just 78% of gross-domestic product. Read Article...
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124404271987981539.html

Investing in Innovation in a Downturn

Investing in Innovation in a Downturn
4/5/2009

Many companies pull back on research and development in tough times. WSJ's Jennifer Merritt speaks with Martin S. Roth of the University of South Carolina about how this move could leave them to peril.

Video Link on MarketWatch

Investors seek safety in tech

Investors seek safety in tech

Investors fret over GE Capital, as GE shares slide

Investors fret over GE Capital, as GE shares slide

BOSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Electric Co investors have one big worry these days: Is its hefty GE Capital finance arm -- the main reason for a 2008 profit drop -- poised to handle the worst economic downturn in decades?
Analysts and investors have pounded the U.S. conglomerate's shares to their lowest level since the early 1990s this week as they wrestle with the question of whether the finance operation -- which a few years ago represented half of GE's profits -- is adequately prepared for a surge in defaults by increasingly unemployed consumers and tottering mid-sized businesses.
The fear is that GE's planning for the unit, which anticipates a 42 percent fall in profit and rising defaults, may not be sufficiently bearish.
"It's not as if the world has confidence in any security, but this team has managed to just shatter investor confidence by continually being more upbeat than they deserve to be," said Charles Ortel, managing director of securities research firm Newport Value Partners in New York, which does not hold a position in GE shares.
Investors fear GE Capital's reserves for losses are too low in comparison with the top U.S. banks. Read more...

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5235NJ20090304

The Art Market, Art Prices, A Second Tulip Mania

A Second Tulip Mania

The prices of contemporary art works have risen to astonishing levels in recent years. Insiders say it’s because we have been living through a golden age of art. Nonsense, argue Ben Lewis and Jonathan Ford, it is a classic investment bubble
Ben Lewis - Jonathan Ford

(Source Forbes.com, Prospect Magazine)
The bubble in contemporary art is about to pop. It has exhibited all the classic features of the South Sea bubble of 1720 or the tulip madness of the 1630s. It has been the bubble of bubbles—balancing precariously on top of other now-burst bubbles in credit, housing and commodities—and inflating more dramatically than all of them. While British house prices took six years to double at the start of this century, contemporary art managed it in just one, 2006-07. (Over the same period, old masters went up by just 7.6 per cent and British 17th to 19th century watercolours actually lost value.) Contemporary art in the emerging economies did even better. The value of its sales in China increased by 983 per cent in one year (2005-06). In Russia they rose 2,365 per cent in five years (2000-05), while its stock market increased by "only" about 300 per cent.

Even these numbers understate the incredible tulip-like increases in the value of the hottest artists. The Chinese painter Zhang Xiaogang saw his work appreciate 6,000 times, from $1,000 to $6m (1999-2008); work by the American artist Richard Prince went up 60 to 80 times (2003-2008). The German painter Anselm Reyle was unknown in 2003; you could have picked up one of his stripe paintings for €14,000. Now he has a studio with 60 assistants turning them out for about €200,000 each. Any figures for the whole contemporary art market are guesswork, though Christie's chief executive, Ed Dolman, recently estimated that it had grown in value from $4bn a year to somewhere between $20-30bn in the past eight years.

But this bubble is now deflating. Sotheby's share price has lost three quarters of its value over the past year, sinking from its peak of $57 in October 2007 to $9 in early November—close to its 1980s low of $8. The latest round of contemporary art auctions in London has gone badly. In October, the Phillips de Pury sale made only £5m—a quarter of the minimum estimate; at Christie's almost half the lots didn't sell; and an air of denial hung over the Frieze art fair like a fog. Upmarket dealers Matthew Marks and Iwan Wirth claimed to have clinched many big deals, but the reality was surely different. A leading New York gallerist was said to have sold very little and a well-known German dealer not a single work.

In his book, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, Charles Kindleberger observed that manias typically start with a "displacement" that excites speculative interest. It may come from a new object of investment or from the increased profitability of existing investments. It is followed by positive feedback as rising prices encourage less experienced investors to enter the market. Then, as the mania gets a grip, speculation becomes more diffuse and spreads to other types of asset. Fresh assets are created at an ever faster rate to take advantage of the euphoria and investors try to increase their gains by borrowing to buy assets or using derivatives. Credit ultimately becomes overextended, swindling and fraud proliferate, and the mania ends in panic as investors seek to liquidate their positions.

The art market has adhered spookily to Kindleberger's model. By 2004 it was clear that a boom in contemporary art was well underway ("The price of art," Ben Lewis, Prospect, October 2004.) At the Armory show, New York's trendsetting contemporary art fair, dealers sold $43m worth of art in four days, nearly twice as much as the previous year. There were huge price rises at auction, too. A 1996 sculpture of a stuffed horse hanging from a ceiling, Ballad of Trotsky, by the fashionable and witty Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, sold for $2m at auction in May 2002. It had increased in value tenfold in two years. Gerhard Richter's paintings quadrupled in value between 2000 and 2004. Even then, buyers were paying $1m to $3m for a work by Hirst, Warhol, Basquiat or Koons. Those sums now seem quaint—last year a Koons went for $23m, a Hirst for $20m and a Basquiat for $15m. Read the Essay in Prospect Magazine...

Investors are taking the long view

Investors are beginning to take the long view after all the bad economic reports.
Stocks rallied on Wallstreet Friday (Dec 5th) despite a particularly bad report about the Jobs Market in the U.S. (533.000 job losses in November).
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 260 points or 3.1%. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index added 3.7% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 4.4%.
It is beginning to look like a short Chritmas rally after all.

From CNN Money
"The report this morning confirmed the fears that the economy is worse off than economists had expected," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "But we're kind of seeing the reaction today that we've seen over the last few days, where there's extremely negative news on the economy, yet the market manages to hold its own."
Stocks still ended lower for the week following Monday's steep selloff. On that day the Dow lost 680 points after the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirmed what many have long believed - that the economy is in a recession. The NBER put the start at December 2007.

Has Warren Buffet's Magic gone?

Buffett magic gone? (01:53)Video Report
Nov. 28 - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has seen shares of his Berkshire Hathaway cut in half as investors fear the company could be hit with a big payout in the future.
Buffett's company has issued insurance policies for equity derivatives, that if values keep dropping, would result in payments which could total as much as $37 billion.