Market Outlook for the rest of December 2008.

Market Outlook for the rest of December 2008.

An outlook and expectation for the stock markets for the rest of the year.
( Dec 11, Amsterdam 10.30 GMT +1)

With China having had its worst month for exports in 7 years in November it looks like Asian markets are getting more prudent and consolidating. Oil prices head up in Asia ahead of the OPEC meeting in Algeria on the 17th of December.
The OPEC which accounts for 40% of Oil Production in the world is expected to cut output by 2 million barrels per day.
Asian markets are lackluster for the moment and expected to sink again.

Companies are using the current crises to lay off more people. A number of large U.S. employers announced layoffs this week, including Dow Chemical Co., 3M Co., Anheuser-Busch InBev, National Public Radio and the National Football League. The U.S. auto-industry emergency loan plan is taking shape although nobody seems to know what to do next. It is a gigantic problem with dire consequenses.
Brokers and Banks are propping up balance sheets before year end. The recent end of November rally is running out of steam. More deep and dire economic news analysis is appearing almost every day.
We do expect the U.S. markets to go down before year end.
All eyes are on the Obama plan.

In Europe a rift is showing up between the 'Brownites' and the Germans with the almost paralyzed Dutch Government having no plan at all but still waiting for new information. ( A few snippets of news are sippling through about the Dutch Government becoming less wasteful with tax payers money).
The trend and outlook for European markets is negative.

The speed and impact of the current crisis on all levels of society spreading around the world, is really amazing and in some cases stunnishing.

The imminent risk of a Market Collapse and a further Meltdown is probably not due before March or April 2009.

The risk of a Market Collapse and a further Meltdown is probably not due before March or April 2009. (Editorial Trendsbridge Team, November 26th, 2008)

The inauguration of President Barack Obama is on the 20th of January.
He will come up with an excellent team, but they have to clean up a terrible mess. It will take some time before results are shown. More bad economic news will show up in or just after the 1st quarter of 2009, the banking (financial) sector is far from healthy, and it takes some time for a new spirit to emerge.
As with any new President he will face unprecedented political (geo-political), and in his case economic challenges in his first 6 months.
High volatity in the markets can be expected.
From now on (end of November) and for the next 3 months we do not expect a real meltdown, but some bear rallies (in bull's clothes) and 'dead-cat jumping' markets.
The downward potential for the Dow Jones (DJIA) is something like 5000 or 6000, and we expect this to be reached in the first half of 2009, with a difficult and erratic climbing upwards through 2009 and the beginning of 2010.
On our site http://www.beurskrach.com we will keep the Beurskrach Indicator for the time being at 55%.

Warning: Of course this can all be wrong and turn out to be very different, but that's Life. There are almost 7 billion people on this Planet and nobody can read all their minds.