By the way: " Have you seen Stanford lately?"

FBI finds Allen Stanford in Virginia
Thu Feb 19, 2009


Stanford whereabouts unknown after charges: SEC

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal regulators said on Wednesday they do not know the whereabouts of billionaire Texas banker Allen Stanford, charged with "massive" international financial fraud, federal regulators said on Wednesday.
"We are unaware of his whereabouts," SEC spokeswoman Kimberly Garber said from Texas. Asked if Stanford may be outside the United States, she said, "Certainly that's a possibility but we don't know.

(Source Reuters) Stanford whereabouts unknown after charges: SEC
U.S. marshals assisting the SEC have been unable to serve Stanford with court orders freezing assets and appointing a receiver to run his Stanford Financial Group companies since a raid on his Houston headquarters Tuesday, Garber said.
The FBI is in communication with the SEC regarding the Stanford case, FBI spokeswoman Shauna Dunlap said. She gave no more details. "The FBI is certainly aware of the SEC investigation, and we have been in contact with the SEC," Dunlap said.
The SEC said in court papers disclosed Tuesday that Stanford had failed to appear in recent weeks for testimony ordered by subpoena.
CNBC reported that he had tried to hire a private jet to fly one-way to Antigua from Houston, but the jet lessor refused to take his credit card.

Stanford Support for sports includes:

* Stanford's own private Twenty20 cricket competition in the Caribbean, including a $20 million game in November between England and his own team made up of West Indian players.

* Endorsement relationships with Fijian golfer Vijay Singh and England soccer player Michael Owen.

* Host sponsor of the 2009 Sony Ericsson Open tennis event in Biscayne, Florida on March 23-April 5.

* Sponsors venues at the Houston Polo Club and International Polo Club in Palm Beach, and sponsors the Stanford Charity Polo Day at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst in the UK.

* In golf, it sponsors the PGA Tour's Stanford St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tennessee.

* Sponsors the Stanford Antigua Sailing Week


Allen Stanford is accused of a fraud (not a Ponzi scheme), a fraud which could turn out to be from the same magnitude as the Madoff fraud.
Late news: unconfirmed rumours about Stanford International Bank being involved with money laundering in the Caribbean and for Mexican drug cartels.

Stanford clients swarm banks
(01:45) Report Reuters Video
Feb. 18 - From Mexico City to Caracas, hundreds of depositors lined up to pull money out of Stanford affiliated banks.

Regulators said they don't know where Stanford is. Fred Katayama reports.From South to North America, hundreds of anxious depositors lined up. They're rushing to pull out their money from banks affiliated with the Texas billionaire accused of fraud. This after U.S. regulators charged Allen Stanford with a "massive" $8 billion dollar fraud.In Houston, Texas, investor Romina Sumpter stood outside Stanford's U.S. headquarters.(SOUNDBITE)(English) Romina Sumpter, investor, saying:"I pray I don't lose everything I invested because it is my inheritance, and it only happens once in a lifetime, and I'm sad to see Mr. Stanford is doing this."Venezuelan bank regulators said Venezuelans had invested billions of dollars in Stanford's bank branch on the island of Antigua.In Antigua's capital, St. Johns, the line stretched around the corner of the Bank of Antigua. More than 600 people waited even though authorities said the bank had sufficient reserves and is separate from Stanford's affiliate that faces U.S. charges.In Mexico City, the dozens who lined up were mostly middle-aged and elderly. Karyna Kleinckwort, a widow, had invested all of her money there. She said, "We don't know what's going on. We are really worried and desperate."Regulators said they don't know where Stanford is. Using his Antiguan affiliate, Stanford International Bank, he's accused of fraudulently selling certificates of deposits that boasted higher than normal yields. But the Stanford case is a lot smaller than that of the 50 billion dollar fraud allegedly carried out by money manager Bernard Madoff. And so far, no criminal charges have been filed. Fred Katayama, Reuters.

Nederland begint de ernst van de recessie in te zien

Nederland begint de ernst van de recessie in te zien

Gisteren, dinsdag 17 februari 2009, na de publicatie van de cijfers van het CPB begon het langzamerhand ook in Nederland door te dringen dat er niet zomaar een conjunctuurschommelingetje is maar een serieuze recessie.
Dank zij de overweldigende belangstelling van de media konden we zgn. geschokte bewindslieden zien die 'geschrokken waren van de cijfers en dan met name van de verwachte sterk oplopende werkloosheid'.

Eigenlijk is de verkiezingsstrijd nu al losgebarsten want de cijfers hebben natuurlijk wel electorale consequenties. (Waar we nog wel meer over zullen horen).
De hele dag vielen deskundigen over elkaar heen in de media, met het aandragen van maatregelen, oplossingen en analyses, en zelfs prominente PvdA ex-bewindslieden die het enkele maanden geleden allemaal nog niet zo somber inzagen, waren om.
Verbaasd over de snelheid van de economische teruggang (of neergang?) was het elkaar vrijpleiten van het gebrek aan alertheid nogal populair, niemand had dit kunnen zien aankomen etc. Blijkbaar hadden ze nog ook nooit van Roubini, Soros en Warren Buffet gehoord.
Maar wat vooral opviel dat vrijwel niemand zich de vraag stelde of een Economie die 50% van het nationaal inkomen in de collectieve sector opbrandt wel een fundamenteel gezonde economie is. Dat was blijkbaar een taboe.
Dat komt nog wel, na het inzicht komt het voelen in dit geval.

Banks Face Eastern Europe Downgrades, Moody’s Says

Banks Face Eastern Europe Downgrades, Moody’s Says

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Moody’s Investors Service said some of Europe’s largest banks may be downgraded because of loans to eastern Europe, sending UniCredit SpA to its lowest in 12 years.
Moody’s sees “continuous downward rating pressure” in the region as a result of worsening asset quality and western banks’ reliance on short-term funding, the ratings company said in a report published today. UniCredit earned almost half its pretax profit from eastern Europe, Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG almost 80 percent in 2007 and Erste Group Bank AG of Austria more than 60 percent, Moody’s said.
The MSCI East Europe Financials Index dropped 9.9 percent to the lowest in almost six years after the Moody’s statement today. The International Monetary Fund has offered aid worth about $52 billion to Latvia, Hungary, Serbia and Ukraine. It may extend bailouts to Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania and Estonia, according to Capital Economics research.
“The most risky parts of the western European banks’ businesses are in eastern Europe and when you decide to cut risks, you cut back on the most risky assets first,” Lars Christensen, an analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by telephone today. “This could add further risk in the region as the economies there may face large current account deficits if funding from western European banks is withdrawn.” Read more...

Voorlopige ramingscijfers 2009 en 2010 beschikbaar

Voorlopige ramingscijfers 2009 en 2010 beschikbaar

Krimp van het bruto binnenlands product (BBP) van 3½%
In het kader van de voorbereiding van het Centraal Economisch Plan (CEP) heeft het CPB vandaag voorlopige ramingscijfers naar de betrokken ministeries gestuurd, om na te gaan of de gehanteerde gegevens over de uitgaven, inkomsten en beleidsvoornemens van de rijksoverheid goed verwerkt zijn. Ook zou er sprake kunnen zijn van nieuwe ontwikkelingen. In de komende weken wordt de raming verder uitgewerkt - uitmondend in de publicatie van het CEP op dinsdag 17 maart a.s. De voorlopige cijfers zijn vanaf vandaag meteen voor iedereen beschikbaar.
Afwijking t.o.v. eerdere raming
De vorige raming, die het CPB op 8 december 2008 heeft gepresenteerd, behelsde al een sterke economische terugval vanwege de kredietcrisis. Bij die raming is ook een variant gepresenteerd waarin de wereldhandel door een dieper dal gaat dan in de centrale projectie van december is verondersteld. De cijfers die het CPB vandaag naar buiten brengt, maken duidelijk dat de voorlopige CEP-raming met een krimp van het bruto binnenlands product (BBP) van 3½% zelfs nog iets negatiever uitkomt dan de pessimistische variant uit december, hoofdzakelijk als gevolg van het sterk verslechterende internationale beeld.
Pas op 17 maart inhoudelijke toelichting op raming
Het CPB geeft nooit toelichting op voorlopige cijfers, ook nu niet. In de komende weken wordt hard gewerkt aan het schrijven van het Centraal Economisch Plan. Op dinsdag 17 maart verschijnt de definitieve raming in het CEP. Dan zal deze ook uitgebreid worden toegelicht tijdens een persconferentie en in een persbericht.
Waarom presenteert het CPB nu voorlopige cijfers?
Het CPB heeft nooit eerder zelf concept-cijfers naar buiten gebracht. Wel leert de ervaring dat (vertrouwelijk verspreide) voorlopige CPB-prognoses in het algemeen toch gaan circuleren. Om die reden is besloten de voorlopige ramingscijfers zelf naar buiten te brengen, zodat alle geïnteresseerden hier gelijktijdig over kunnen beschikken. Bovendien voorkomt dit onduidelijkheid over de precieze status van de concept-raming. Vanwege de huidige, uitzonderlijke economische omstandigheden is de behoefte aan en aandacht voor de nieuwe ramingen nu bovendien extra groot.

G7 crisis talks, from the Scene Reuters Video

G7 crisis talks. From the Scene Reuters Video
(03:38)

Feb 15 - The G7 group of industrialised nations ends a meeting in Rome with a pledge to combat recession without distorting free trade.
The global financial crisis has sparked fears of a 1930s-style resurgence of protectionism and there is growing tension among the member states over the impact economic stimulus plans and state bailouts of industries could have on each other.
Reuters Economic Editor Nick Edwards reports from Rome.

CPB-cijfers vroegtijdig naar buiten op 17 februari

CPB-cijfers vroegtijdig naar buiten op 17 februari

Het Centraal Planbureau (CPB) brengt dit voorjaar de cijfers over de economie vroegtijdig naar buiten. Een woordvoerster van het CPB zei donderdag dat op 17 februari de voorlopige ramingen bekend worden gemaakt over de economische groei, werkloosheid en inflatie voor dit en komend jaar.
Officieel presenteert het Planbureau in maart de ramingen. Deze cijfers zijn van belang voor het kabinet om in de zogeheten voorjaarsnota eventueel het beleid aan te passen.

Verhoging AOW-leeftijd en dekkingsgraad pensioenen
13 februari
Dit memorandum beoogt te verduidelijken welke veronderstellingen het CPB heeft gehanteerd bij berekeningen van de effecten van verhoging van de pensioenleeftijd naar 67 jaar. Er zijn op dit moment twee varianten voor een dergelijke verhoging; deze worden apart behandeld. Daarna volgt een korte analyse van de effecten van beleid en economische ontwikkelingen op de dekkingsgraad van pensioenfondsen.
lees verder op de site van het CPB

CPB Memorandum 215
Verhoging AOW-leeftijd en dekkingsgraad pensioenen, download PDF

VSBfonds blijft actief in Mens & Maatschappij en Kunst & Cultuur

VSBfonds blijft actief in Mens & Maatschappij en Kunst & Cultuur

15-02-2009
Als gevolg van een reorganisatie blijft VSBfonds de komende jaren alleen actief in de sectoren Mens & Maatschappij en Kunst & Cultuur. Hiervoor is een jaarlijks donatiebudget van € 26 miljoen beschikbaar. Het fonds stopt per 16 februari 2009 met het toekennen van donaties aan projecten op het terrein van Sport en Natuur & Milieu.
VSBfonds heeft duidelijke keuzes gemaakt en niet voor de 'kaasschaafmethode' willen kiezen. Hierbij is het fonds teruggegaan naar zijn wortels die ruim 200 jaar terug in de tijd gaan. De focus van zijn rechtsvoorgangers op 'ontwikkeling en beschaving van de gewone mens' wijzen, indien vertaald naar de huidige tijd, naar kern activiteiten in de sectoren Mens & Maatschappij en Kunst & Cultuur. Sport en Natuur & Milieu staan net iets verder af van dit gedachtegoed.

VSB-fonds ontslaat personeel en halveert budget
(Bron NRC)
Het fonds richt zich alleen nog op de sectoren ‘mens en maatschappij’ en ‘kunst en cultuur’. Van de 68 medewerkers worden er 33 ontslagen.
De maatregelen zijn een gevolg van de ineenstorting van Fortis, waarin het VSB-fonds met 2 procent van de aandelen (50 miljoen) een groot belang heeft. Door de enorme daling van het aandeel Fortis werd het vermogen van het VSB-fonds vorig jaar gehalveerd. Het donatiebudget gaat met meer dan de helft omlaag naar 26 miljoen euro per jaar.

Washington's Birthday/Presidents' Day February 16th U.S. Stock Markets closed

Washington's Birthday/Presidents' Day February 16th U.S. Stock Markets closed

Wallstreet is closed today.
Washington's Birthday was first declared a federal holiday by an 1879 act of Congress. The Monday Holiday Law, enacted in 1968, shifted the date of the commemoration of Washington's Birthday from February 22 to the third Monday in February, but neither that law nor any subsequent law changed the name of the holiday from Washington's Birthday to President's Day.

The third Monday in February has become popularly known as President's Day.

Companies turning to Warren Buffet for financing

Buffett to buy $250M Tiffany debt
Jewelry maker becomes the latest company to turn to Berkshire Hathaway for financing.

(Source CNN Money)
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has agreed to buy $250 million of debt from luxury jewelry maker Tiffany & Co., the latest in a string of high-yielding investments by the billionaire investor.
New York-based Tiffany said it sold Berkshire $125 million of eight-year notes and $125 million of 10-year notes, all yielding 10%. It said it will use the proceeds to refinance debt and for general corporate purposes.
The investment marks at least the seventh time since September that Berkshire has gotten at least a 10% payout by buying company bonds, preferred stock or convertible securities.
Many companies are turning to Berkshire for financing as the global credit crisis makes it too difficult or costly to raise money from institutional investors.

South Africa's economy. Tough times ahead

South Africa's economy. Tough times ahead

Feb 12th 2009 | JOHANNESBURG
(Source: From The Economist print edition)

But Africa’s biggest economy may still recover quickly from a looming recession.
ANY lingering hopes that South Africa might escape relatively unscathed from the global economic storms were dashed on February 5th when Tito Mboweni, governor of the central bank, predicted that Africa’s biggest economy would go through “a rough patch for the next three to four years”. Any politician who did not pass on that message to voters was “living in cloud-cuckoo-land”.
The same day, in an attempt to stimulate the economy and mitigate the effects of a recession, the bank chopped interest rates by a full percentage point to 10.5%, the biggest single reduction since 2003. As Mr Mboweni confessed at the time, he personally would have preferred a two-point cut. This week he signalled that if growth figures for the last quarter of 2008, due out on February 24th, were worse than expected, there could be a further cut in rates ahead of the monetary-policy committee’s next scheduled meeting in April.
Like the rest of Africa, South Africa had until recently been doing relatively well. Between 2004 and 2007, its economy grew by a perky 5% a year, after averaging a still respectable 3% over the previous decade. Last year it had been expected to expand by around 4%. But after slowing to a virtual standstill (up just 0.2%) in the third quarter—its worst performance in a decade—it will be lucky to reach 3% for the whole year. In the final quarter, the economy probably actually shrank, by as much as 4.6%, some economists reckon. Read more...

South African Government Information

2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™

Click on image and download PDF

With anticipation growing ahead of the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™, the official Match Schedule has been released. To find out where the games will be played in Cape Town, Durban, Johannesburg, Mangaung/Bloemfontein, Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, Nelspruit, Polokwane, Rustenburg, Tshwane/Pretoria between 11 June and 11 July 2010.

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/preliminarydraw/64/42/24/2010fwc_matchschedule_1103.pdf

G7 finance ministers reject protectionist measures

G7 finance ministers reject protectionist measures

The Group of Seven finance ministers strongly rejected protectionism Saturday, pledging to work together to support growth and employment and to strengthen the banking system so the world can overcome its worst financial crisis in 50 years.
Still, bad economic news darkened the horizon. The final statement on their two-day meeting in Rome predicted a gloomy forecast, with the severe economic downturn continuing through most of 2009. That came a day after new economic data showed the recession in Europe deepening to its worst levels in decades.
The meeting marked the international debut of U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who appealed to the "common imperative" to sustain open trade.
"These are global challenges and it is imperative that we work together to address them," Geithner told reporters afterward. "Effective global response will require sustained action by governments working with the international financial institutions." Read more...

February 14, 2009
Statement by Secretary Tim Geithner Following Meeting of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
Statement by Secretary Tim Geithner – As Prepared for Delivery
Following Meeting of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
Rome, Italy

From Slate Magazine. Geithner Pitches Plan Across the Pond

Japan, the world’s second-largest economy is shrinking.

Japan, the world’s second-largest economy shrinking, worst since 1974 Oil Shock

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe triggered a record drop in exports.
Gross domestic product fell for a third straight quarter in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 11.6 percent contraction.
Exports plunged an unprecedented 13.9 percent from the third quarter as demand for Corolla cars and Bravia televisions collapsed amid a slump that the Group of Seven nations said will persist for most of 2009. Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. -- all of which forecast losses -- are firing thousands of workers, heightening the risk a decline in household spending will prolong the recession.
“The economy is in terrible shape and the scary part is that we’re likely to see a similar drop this quarter,” said Seiji Adachi, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “All we can do is wait for overseas demand to pick up.”
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.4 percent at the close in Tokyo, extending the year’s losses to 13 percent. The yen rose to 91.59 per dollar from 91.76 on speculation Japan will refrain from taking measures to weaken the currency. The yen’s 18 percent gain over the past year has compounded exporters’ woes by eroding the value of their overseas sales.

Worse Than U.S., Europe
The world’s second-largest economy shrank 3.3 percent from the third quarter, today’s report showed. That compared with the U.S.’s 1 percent contraction and the euro-zone’s 1.5 percent decline, which was the sharpest in at least 13 years.
“There’s no doubt that the economy is in its worst state in the postwar period,” Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said in Tokyo. “The Japanese economy, which is heavily dependent on exports of autos, electronics and capital goods, has been severely hit by the global slowdown.”

Annual Forecast 2009: Major Global Trends: Recession, Russia, The Jihadist War

Annual Forecast 2009: Major Global Trends: Recession, Russia, The Jihadist War

The world begins 2009 in its first synchronized recession since 1974. The proximate cause of the global slowdown was the collapse of the U.S. subprime housing market, which touched off a liquidity crisis as American financial institutions that had participated in subprime were forced to set aside cash to rebalance their asset sheets. As the recession deepened, loans far healthier than those originated in subprime also went bad, compounding the need to rebalance and draining more capital out of the system. This contributed to a credit crunch that continued into the New Year. This “simple” credit crisis is hardly the end of the story.

If money is akin to water, then a liquidity crisis is analogous to a very low tide that exposes a host of dangers lurking beneath the surface. The United States sports the fewest of these dangers. Its culture of change means that inefficiencies are regularly and ruthlessly purged from its system. For example, the mortgage brokers who made subprime possible are all already out of business, and most of the investment houses that gorged on securities linked to subprime — up to and including Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch — have either gone bankrupt or been acquired by more stable institutions. This obsession with efficiency and rapid evolution results in the constant uncovering of problems, but this very constancy means that the problems tend to be small. In the current case, subprime and its related issues struck more or less at once, but the United States will be able to recover from the problems without getting caught up in unrelated issues. This hardly means that the American recession is a fun time — for one thing, the liquidity crisis has triggered a painful broad-based credit rollback — but the United States is not facing any deeper structural issues.

You can Download the Article and a PDF report by going to the Stratfor Global Intelligence Site: Annual Forecast 2009: Major Global Trends: Recession, Russia, The Jihadist War

Bank failures: 13 in 2009, Friday the13th

Bank failures: 13 in 2009, Friday the 13th

Bank failures: 13 in 2009, Friday the13th

Closures in Nebraska, Florida, Illinois and Oregon bring the number of bank failures to 13 this year as the financial crisis continues to roll.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Four banks folded Friday, bringing the total number of banks to fail this year to 13.
Deposits at Sherman County Bank, based in Loup City, Neb., the first bank in the state to fail since 1990, will be taken over by Heritage Bank, based in Wood River, Neb., according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
Meanwhile, accounts held by Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast based in Cape Coral, Fla., will be assumed by TIB Bank based in Naples, Fla., the FDIC said. It is the second bank to fail in Florida this year and the fourth to go under in that state since the economic crisis unfurled.
Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, based in Pittsfield, Ill., the third bank to fail in the state since January 2008, was also shuttered by state regulators, and its deposits were turned over to The Carlinville National Bank out of Carlinville, Ill.
Pinnacle Bank, Beaverton, Oregon, was closed by the Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities. The FDIC entered into an agreement with Washington Trust Bank, Spokane, Washington, to assume all of the deposits of Pinnacle Bank.
Customers who banked with Sherman County Bank, Riverside, Corn Belt Bank, or Pinnacle Bank will automatically become customers of the new owners, and will retain their account protection under the FDIC, which insures single accounts up to $250,000, and joint accounts up to $500,000, the government agency said. Read Article...

Impatient investors want to know the specifics of what Team Obama is cooking up

Wall Street: Devil is in the details
Impatient investors want to know the specifics of what Team Obama is cooking up to soften the blow of the recession. The week ahead brings several opportunities.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A lack of clear communication between the government and Wall Street last week left investors scratching their heads and dumping their stocks. The week ahead brings a chance for a rapprochement.
President Obama is expected to sign into law Monday the much debated $787 billion economic stimulus package. Obama and his team are also expected to outline specifically why the plan will help soften the blow of the recession when other government efforts over the last year have had little impact.
The plan combines tax relief, aid and spending, and was passed in both the House of Representatives and the Senate last week with very little Republican support. (Full story)
Later in the week, Obama is expected to provide details on the administration's plan to modify home loans in a bid to limit foreclosures.
"We need specifics," said Joe Arnold, wealth manager at Dawson Wealth Management. "The market is back down near the November lows because we don't know specifically how and when these plans are going to have an impact."

The Art Market, Art Prices, A Second Tulip Mania

A Second Tulip Mania

The prices of contemporary art works have risen to astonishing levels in recent years. Insiders say it’s because we have been living through a golden age of art. Nonsense, argue Ben Lewis and Jonathan Ford, it is a classic investment bubble
Ben Lewis - Jonathan Ford

(Source Forbes.com, Prospect Magazine)
The bubble in contemporary art is about to pop. It has exhibited all the classic features of the South Sea bubble of 1720 or the tulip madness of the 1630s. It has been the bubble of bubbles—balancing precariously on top of other now-burst bubbles in credit, housing and commodities—and inflating more dramatically than all of them. While British house prices took six years to double at the start of this century, contemporary art managed it in just one, 2006-07. (Over the same period, old masters went up by just 7.6 per cent and British 17th to 19th century watercolours actually lost value.) Contemporary art in the emerging economies did even better. The value of its sales in China increased by 983 per cent in one year (2005-06). In Russia they rose 2,365 per cent in five years (2000-05), while its stock market increased by "only" about 300 per cent.

Even these numbers understate the incredible tulip-like increases in the value of the hottest artists. The Chinese painter Zhang Xiaogang saw his work appreciate 6,000 times, from $1,000 to $6m (1999-2008); work by the American artist Richard Prince went up 60 to 80 times (2003-2008). The German painter Anselm Reyle was unknown in 2003; you could have picked up one of his stripe paintings for €14,000. Now he has a studio with 60 assistants turning them out for about €200,000 each. Any figures for the whole contemporary art market are guesswork, though Christie's chief executive, Ed Dolman, recently estimated that it had grown in value from $4bn a year to somewhere between $20-30bn in the past eight years.

But this bubble is now deflating. Sotheby's share price has lost three quarters of its value over the past year, sinking from its peak of $57 in October 2007 to $9 in early November—close to its 1980s low of $8. The latest round of contemporary art auctions in London has gone badly. In October, the Phillips de Pury sale made only £5m—a quarter of the minimum estimate; at Christie's almost half the lots didn't sell; and an air of denial hung over the Frieze art fair like a fog. Upmarket dealers Matthew Marks and Iwan Wirth claimed to have clinched many big deals, but the reality was surely different. A leading New York gallerist was said to have sold very little and a well-known German dealer not a single work.

In his book, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, Charles Kindleberger observed that manias typically start with a "displacement" that excites speculative interest. It may come from a new object of investment or from the increased profitability of existing investments. It is followed by positive feedback as rising prices encourage less experienced investors to enter the market. Then, as the mania gets a grip, speculation becomes more diffuse and spreads to other types of asset. Fresh assets are created at an ever faster rate to take advantage of the euphoria and investors try to increase their gains by borrowing to buy assets or using derivatives. Credit ultimately becomes overextended, swindling and fraud proliferate, and the mania ends in panic as investors seek to liquidate their positions.

The art market has adhered spookily to Kindleberger's model. By 2004 it was clear that a boom in contemporary art was well underway ("The price of art," Ben Lewis, Prospect, October 2004.) At the Armory show, New York's trendsetting contemporary art fair, dealers sold $43m worth of art in four days, nearly twice as much as the previous year. There were huge price rises at auction, too. A 1996 sculpture of a stuffed horse hanging from a ceiling, Ballad of Trotsky, by the fashionable and witty Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, sold for $2m at auction in May 2002. It had increased in value tenfold in two years. Gerhard Richter's paintings quadrupled in value between 2000 and 2004. Even then, buyers were paying $1m to $3m for a work by Hirst, Warhol, Basquiat or Koons. Those sums now seem quaint—last year a Koons went for $23m, a Hirst for $20m and a Basquiat for $15m. Read the Essay in Prospect Magazine...

CBS: Persconferentie 'De Nederlandse conjunctuur 2008'

CBS: Persconferentie 'De Nederlandse conjunctuur 2008'

Persbericht, vrijdag 13 februari 2009 9:30
Economie krimpt 0,6 procent in vierde kwartaal 2008

* Eerste krimp in vijf jaar
* Vooral export valt terug
* Investeringen iets lager, bescheiden groei consumptie
* Bijna 100 000 banen erbij

Volgens de eerste, voorlopige raming van het CBS is de Nederlandse economie in het vierde kwartaal van 2008 met 0,6 procent gekrompen ten opzichte van hetzelfde kwartaal een jaar eerder. Dit is de eerste krimp van de Nederlandse economie in meer dan vijf jaar. De teruggang is vooral toe te schrijven aan een sterke daling van de export van Nederlands product. De investeringen krompen licht. De consumptie liet een bescheiden en iets langzamere groei zien. De werkgelegenheid groeide echter met bijna 100 duizend banen nauwelijks minder dan in het derde kwartaal.
Kwartaal-op-kwartaalkrimp 0,9 procent

Ten opzichte van een kwartaal eerder kromp de Nederlandse economie in het vierde kwartaal van 2008 met 0,9 procent. Hierbij is rekening gehouden met werkdag- en seizoeneffecten. Deze kwartaal-op-kwartaalkrimp is de grootste sinds het begin van de jaren tachtig. Door de sterke teruggang in het vierde kwartaal laten nu ook de beide voorgaande kwartalen kwartaal-op-kwartaal een lichte krimp zien. Volgens de veel gebruikte definitie van recessie als twee opeenvolgende kwartalen met een negatieve groei verkeert de Nederlandse economie nu in een recessie.
Download tekst (De PDF bevat het volledige persbericht inclusief tabellen en grafieken, zie de link op de pagina.) Persbericht CBS

Voor 2009 wordt gerekend op een krimp van 2% voor de Nederlandse Economie

Books, New York Times Book Review: 'Lords of Finance'

Read the First Chapter (Free)
‘Lords of Finance’
By LIAQUAT AHAMED Published: January 15, 2009
“Few members of the public knew the real truth — that for the last two weeks, as the world financial crisis had reached a crescendo and the European banking system teetered on the edge of collapse, the governor had been incapacitated by a nervous breakdown, brought on by extreme stress.”

LORDS OF FINANCE
The Bankers Who Broke the World
By Liaquat Ahamed
Illustrated. 564 pp. The Penguin Press. $32.95




Books / Sunday Book Review
Flying Blind
By JOE NOCERA Published: February 15, 2009
A grand narrative of the events leading to the Great Depression, built around the stories of four powerful central banker.

Wild Optimism: Economist Sees Modest GDP Growth in Late 2009

This Counts as Wild Optimism: Economist Sees Modest GDP Growth in Late 2009
It's hard to be a saint in the city and it's even harder these days to be optimistic about the U.S. economy. According to a Pew Center poll, 30% of Americans think we're already in a depression while the econo-bears like Nouriel Roubini have seen their stature rise dramatically.
Relative to that, John Ryding, chief economist of RDQ Economics, is a wide-eyed optimist because he believes the U.S. economy will experience positive growth in the second-half of 2009 and the unemployment rate will peak at 9% in 2010, not reach the low-to-mid teens as many others forecast.

Nederland verkeert nu officieel in recessie

Nederland verkeert nu officieel in recessie

(Commentaar, Vrijdag 13 februari, 20.00 CET)
Al jaren zap ik het wekelijkse gesprek met de Minister President (Balkenende) direct weg, net als alles wat ik niet interessant, spannend of intelligent vind. Maar al enkele maanden volg ik dat gesprek, eigenlijk sinds ik enige tijd geleden opmerkte dat de heer Balkenende mij aan een 'in paniek geraakt konijn' deed denken.
Vandaag was de teneur van het gesprek (over de recessie), "schrik, we hebben het niet gezien, het gaat veel sneller dan we hadden gedacht, we wachten nog op cijfers, enzovoort".
Tja, als je volledig opgaat in waarden, normen, betuttelen en dingen samen doen, dan ontsnapt er wel eens iets aan je aandacht, dat kan de beste gebeuren. En een uitdrukking als: "It's the Economy, Stupids!" zou ongehoord goedkoop zijn tegenover die christelijke jongens die toch in een of ander opperwezen geloven.

Er gebeurt dus voorlopig niets, ergo er komt nog geen goed doordacht, uitgebalanceerd en intelligent plan om verdere schade aan de economie te voorkomen.
Wachten op nog meer alarmerende cijfers van het CPB of CBS misschien?
Eerst nog een vergaderingetje van de G7 of de G20?
Of wat rapporten van de EU, de OESO of het IMF?
Of moet de ECB de rente nog 1.5% verlagen?
Een 'Commissie van Wijze Mannen', kan ook wel eens helpen
Wint de vergadercultuur het toch?
Hoe dan ook er is geen excuus voor besluiteloosheid en gebrek aan inzicht, dus het Kabinet zal op korte termijn met het gezamenlijke water voor de dokter moeten komen.
Enfin, de Premier is in Davos op het Forum geweest, en zal daar ongetwijfeld ook de President Commissaris van de Koninklijke Olie, Jeroen van der Veer ontmoet hebben, die hem daar zijn favoriete open deuren deuntje in de trant van "de wereldbevolking neemt in de komende 40 jaar met 30% toe tot ruim 9 of 10 miljard' wel zal hebben laten horen.
Wat er ook gaat gebeuren hoewel, het is goed voor Shell, in elk geval, don't worry, be happy!

Explosieve stijging faillisementen in horeca in januari

Explosieve stijging faillisementen in horeca in januari

11 februari 2009
Volgend het Horeca vakblad Proostmagazine was er in januari 2009 een meer dan 50% toename van het aantal faillissementen in de horeca.
Hoewel de cijfers van het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek voor de horeca over 2008 nog positief leken (twee procent minder faillisementen dan in 2007) laten andere cijfers over de eerste maand van dit jaar een heel ander beeld zien: uit onderzoek van Dun & Bradsteet blijkt dat het aantal horecabedrijven dat in deze maand op de fles ging met 53 procent toenam ten opzicht van januari 2008.

Het totaal aantal faillissementen is in januari 2009 gestegen met 47 procent ten opzichte van dezelfde maand in 2008. Uit de cijfers van het CBS bleek al de stijgende trend van het aantal bedrijven dat failliet gaat, die eind vorig jaar is ingezet. Dun & Bradstreet signaleert niet alleen dezelfde trend, maar bevestigt ook de sombere verwachtingen voor 2009 met de stijgende faillissementcijfers van januari. Sabine Besselink: "Een dergelijke explosieve stijging ten opzichte van dezelfde maand een jaar eerder is al lang niet meer voorgekomen. Ook als we kijken naar het voortschrijdend gemiddelde over drie maanden, dan is de groei van het aantal faillissementen duidelijk waarneembaar."

Trekken aan een dood paard

Trekken aan een dood paard
Aan een dood paard trekken.(Je inspannen voor iets, dat tot mislukken gedoemd is)

Ik bedoel hier niet mee de voortdurende schommelingen op de beurs en de (misschien tè) hooggespannen verwachtingen over het Obama Stimulus Plan.
Gisteren, 10 Februari 2009, mocht Timothy Geithner het meer dan 800 miljoen dollar plan presenteren. De verwachting is dat het uiteindelijk benodigde plan rond de 2 biljoen dollar (2000 miljard) zal gaan kosten en dat het nog maar het eerste is in een reeks plannen om de Amerikaanse Economie te herstellen. De Amerikaanse beurzen reageerden teleurgesteld met dalingen van 4 tot ruim 5 procent.
Belasting voordeeltjes, Keynesiaanse infrastuctuur investerings voorstellen, etc, het mocht de beurs allemaal niet echt bekoren.

Vandaag is er weer de hoop dat de verdere onderhandelingen over het reddingplan nieuwe impulsen kunnen geven.
Dat noemen wij 'trekken aan een dood paard', de beurs reageert nu al maanden op de bailout plannen, eerst van de vorige regering en nu van de nieuwe regering. Idem met de bailout plannen voor de auto-industrie.
Bij gebrek aan fundamenteel goed nieuws grijpt de beurs elk nieuwtje aan.
Maar er is weinig goed nieuws, de cijfers worden steeds slechter, was er eerst sprake van het creeëren van 3 miljoen nieuwe banen, nu wordt 4 miljoen gehoord, binnen een half jaar 5 miljoen waarschijnlijk.

De bankiers met de volvette bonussen worden geschoren, zitten doodstil en geven deemoedig toe dat ze fouten gemaakt hebben.
Er is een incidenteel wat hap snap beleid met de vraag om BTW verlagingen (de in recordtempo onderuitgaande auto branche in Nederland), terwijl op globaal niveau de gebakken luchtballonnetjes opgaan met gedachten aan protectionisme en meer nationalisme.
Maar iets nieuws op het gebied van de 21ste Eeuwse Economie zien we nog niet.
Misschien moet dat van theoretici en moderne holistisch denkende economen of toekomstige Nobel Prijswinnaars komen of gewoon van onderop, de doeners van de 'grass-roots'.
Reageren op kleine stijgingen in de Dow, NASDAQ of S&P 500 is aan een dood paard trekken.

China's export value down 17.5% in January

China's export value down 17.5% in January

China's export volume decreased 17.5 percent year-on-year to 90.45 billion US dollars in January, the General Administration of Customs said on Wednesday.
The import volume, however, fell by a much larger degree of 43.1 percent to 51.34 billion US dollars.
Total foreign trade was 141.8 billion US dollars, with the trade surplus up 102 percent over the same month of last year to 39.1 billion US dollars.
While the January trade figures were "in part distorted by the affect of the Chinese new year, they indicate a continuing deterioration in the underlying fundamentals," said Wang Qing, chief analyst on Chinese economy with Morgan Stanley Asia.
Of the total January external trade, foreign-funded companies accounted for 52.2 percent, or 74.05 billion US dollars, down 32.3 percent from a year ago, and state-owned businesses made up 22.3 percent, or 31.65 billion dollars, down 34.8 percent.
The total included 27.93 billion US dollars in trade between China and the European Union, down 18.7 percent; 22.25 billion dollars in trade between China and the United States, down 15.2 percent; and 14.5 billion dollars in trade between China and Japan, down 28 percent.

Wall St. pans bank bailout plan

Wall St. pans bank bailout plan
(02:04) Reuters Video Report

Feb. 10 - The Treasury's new bank rescue strategy was dead on arrival, as far as Wall Street was concerned, with investors still unclear if the plan will work.

Critics say Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's $2 trillion plan provides little detail on how banks will get rid of toxic assets and start lending again, while at the same time, opening up banks to new scrutiny by the American taxpayer. US stocks closed sharply lower. Conway Gittens reports from New York. SOUNDBITES:
# Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner
# Milton Ezrati, market strategist and chief economist, Lord Abbett
# Michael Henry, senior executive of financial industry strategy, Accenture

Bullion sales hit record in rush to safety

Bullion sales hit record in rush to safety

Published: February 9 2009 18:16 (Source Financial Times)
Investors are buying record amounts of gold bars and coins, shunning risky assets for the relative safety of bullion amid renewed fears about the health of the global financial system.
The US Mint sold 92,000 ounces of its popular American Eagle coin last month, almost four times that which it sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007.
Other countries’ mints have also reported strong sales. “Large purchases of coins are perhaps the ultimate sign of safe-haven gold buying,” said John Reade, a precious metals strategist at UBS.
Inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds surged in January, pushing their bullion holdings to an all-time high of 1,317 tonnes. Last month’s flows of 105 tonnes were above September’s previous record of 104 tonnes, and absorbed about half the world’s gold mine output for January, said Barclays Capital.
“We estimate that investment demand [into gold] could double in 2009 compared to 2007,” said Mr Reade. “Purchases of physical gold have jumped over the past six months as investors’ fears about the current financial crisis ... have intensified.”
The move into gold is being driven by the very rich, with bankers saying that some clients are hoarding gold in their vaults. UBS and Goldman Sachs said last week that investor hoarding would drive prices back above $1,000 an ounce. On Monday gold was trading at $892 an ounce.
Jonathan Spall, director of commodities at Barclays Capital in London, said: “We have seen more new enquiries about investing in gold so far this year than during the whole 2008.”

China monthly auto sales overtake US for 1st time

China monthly auto sales overtake US for 1st time
Tuesday February 10, 6:19 am ET

China's monthly auto sales overtake US for 1st time in January, helped by shrinking US market
SHANGHAI (AP) -- China's monthly vehicle sales surpassed those in the United States for the first time in January, moving this country closer to becoming the world's biggest auto market, data released Tuesday showed.
With its growing middle class and vast potential as a consumer market, China is vital for General Motors, Volkswagen and Toyota as they count on demand here to offset weakness in the U.S. and elsewhere.
But China's ascent in the global auto market has been hastened by the plunge in U.S. auto sales, which tumbled 37 percent in January to a 26-year low of 656,976 units.
Chinese vehicle sales also have cooled, but hardly as dramatically. In January, 735,000 vehicles were sold, down 14.4 percent from a monthly record 860,000 last January, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said.
Mike DiGiovanni, General Motors Corp.'s executive director of global market and industry analysis, said last week he expected Chinese auto sales could hit 10.7 million units in 2009, more than his estimate of 9.8 million unit sales in the U.S. this year. Autodata forecasts 2009 U.S. sales at 9.57 million.
China's vehicle market has grown dramatically in recent years, overtaking Japan in 2006 to become the world's second-largest by annual sales. With 1.3 billion people, China will inevitably leapfrog the U.S., with a population of 300 million, into the No. 1 spot, industry experts say.
Still, if American car demand revives in coming months, the United States will remain the world's largest market by annual sales -- at least for another year.

Bingo comes to Bolivia, by way of Russia

Bingo comes to Bolivia, by way of Russia

(Source: Special to The Miami Herald - BY ANNIE MURPHY)
SANTA CRUZ, Bolivia -- As Washington watches its influence wane in Latin America, Russia is picking up the slack, with military exercises and arms deals in Venezuela, billion-dollar gas pipelines across the continent, and now, casinos in Bolivia.
But Bolivian authorities are worried that foreign-run gambling is far from a boon for the country. Russian-owned Ritzio Entertainment Group is a key player, also operating Bolivia's Bingo Bahiti clubs, best known for both electronic and live bingo, the same game played across the United States.
While bingo in the United States is generally associated with grandparents and retirees, in Bolivia it's catching on with young people.
Ritzio is the largest of the Russian-owned casinos that have turned up in Bolivia over the past five years, as former president and now Prime Minister Vladimir Putin cracked down on gambling.

LAWS TIGHTEN
Three years ago, a law passed in Russia declared that gambling would be barred from cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg by 2009, and restricted to four remote regions: Kalingrad, Primorye, Altai and Rostov-Krasnodar.
Two years ago, Ritzio earned about $1.6 billion in revenue from its gambling operations and began expanding abroad. In Latin America, it now operates clubs in Bolivia, Colombia and Peru.
According to Bingo Bahiti, the chain earns about $2.5 million a year in Bolivia; the government office that regulates casinos declined to discuss revenue or earnings.

Media layoffs increasing

Media firms keep pink slips coming
TW Cable, Bloomberg join bleak parade

Feb 4, 2009, 07:29 PM ET (Source The Hollywood Reporter)
NEW YORK -- Another day, another 1,350 media jobs lost.
On Wednesday, Time Warner Cable said it will eliminate 1,250 positions in the coming weeks amid slumping subscriber momentum. Hours later, financial news provider Bloomberg said it will cut 100 TV and radio jobs in its first-ever layoffs.
Those were the latest in a series of recent cutbacks that have erased any doubt that media and entertainment firms are as vulnerable as any company in the U.S. The first weeks of 2009 have also brought pink slips at Time Warner's Warner Bros. and AOL units, Clear Channel Communications and others. Disney CEO Robert Iger said Tuesday that the entertainment powerhouse is also looking at "very significant" cost cuts, including layoffs.
Adding to the grim picture is word that overall job cuts in the U.S. soared to a seven-year high in January, according to a report from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
"We aren't immune," Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt said. The cuts amount to less than 3% of the cable giant's work force, but it also plans to leave an unspecified number of open positions unfilled throughout the year. While Britt said cable in this downturn should hold up better than many other sectors, he admitted that the recession has significantly dragged down subscriber momentum.
Announced media layoffs for the first month of the year came in at 4,446, up from the already-elevated 4,283 reported for the same month last year, according to Challenger. In 2007, January media layoffs amounted to 2,155; in 2006, they were 1,134.
"This is the longest and deepest recession in decades," said Hal Vogel, president of Vogel Capital Management. "Companies overstaffed by some (not all) arrogant know-it-all types and also the legacy business models need to be significantly revised now that they've been technologically disrupted and/or rendered obsolete."
Last year, corporate America laid off the most employees since 2003, while the media sector eliminated folks at the highest rate since 2001. Media cuts for 2008 amounted to 28,083, the highest since 43,420 pink slips in 2001, when the Internet bubble burst.

4 Fatal Financial Fantasies

4 Fatal Financial Fantasies

Investipedia has some sound advice about Financial Fantasies
Many of us have financial fantasies that help us to remain optimistic in the face of financial hardship. But while there's nothing wrong with dreaming, some fantasies do more harm than good, especially when they affect the way we behave. Why give up the dreams? Because expecting a windfall or a free ride to get you through life isn't going to make you successful - in fact, it will allow you to make excuses that can stand in the way of your financial freedom. Let's take a look at four common financial fantasies - you're better off forgetting about them, but we'll provide some realistic, actionable plans you can put in their place.

Common Financial Fantasies
1. I'll receive a large inheritance.
2. I'll win the lottery.
3. I'll start a website and make a killing off advertising.
4. I'll make a ton off an initial public offering (IPO).

Reality Check
1. I'll start my own business.
2. I'll finish college.
3. I'll make passive supplemental income through investments.
4. I'll buy a house.

Read it all on Investopedia.com

Geld lenen kost geld, de nieuwe verplichte waarschuwing voor kredietreclames

Geld lenen kost geld, de nieuwe verplichte waarschuwing voor kredietreclames
9-2-2009

Deze waarschuwing is vanaf 1 april verplicht voor alle reclames over krediet op televisie, radio, internet en in gedrukte media. Uitzonderingen zijn algemene reclames voor hypotheken en reclames waarbij wordt ingegaan op de aankoop van de eigen woning.
Aanbieders, bemiddelaars en adviseurs moeten bij opname van de waarschuwing in hun reclame-uitingen gebruik maken van de vaste beeld- en audiobestanden die de AFM ter beschikking stelt. Ook zijn er door de AFM regels vastgesteld over de manier waarop deze waarschuwing in een reclame-uiting opgenomen moet worden. Alle bestanden en regels zijn te vinden op de website van de AFM onder www.afm.nl/kredietwaarschuwing.

(Commentaar TrendsBridge: Beetje laat eigenlijk toch! Maar consumenten bescherming had kennelijk geen hoge prioriteit.)

Shame and suicides

Shame and suicides
(02:15) Reuters Video Report

Feb. 5 - Job losses and investment losses are pushing some of the rich and poor alike to take their lives.

Just as the suicide rate rose around 20 percent during the Great Depression, some mental health experts predict this recession will also spark an increase. Fred Katayama reports from New York.SOUNDBITE:
# Dr. Alden Cass, clinical psychologist
# Dr. Kita Curry, CEO, Didi Hirsch Community Mental Health Center

Het Kabinet Balkenende heeft geen duidelijk beleid en mist daadkracht.

Het Kabinet Balkenende heeft geen duidelijk beleid en mist daadkracht, vooral in deze economische crisis nu het er op aan komt.

Het Kabinet Balkenende heeft vanaf het begin de signalen van een economische teruggang verkeerd geïnterpreteerd.
In februari 2008 was het al duidelijk dat er iets mis aan het gaan was met de wereldeconomie. Het Kabinet met een overoptimistich regeerakkoord was na het 100 dagen rondtoeren in 2007, en het gezever over de waarden en normen nog volop bezig met de voorbereiding van de 'betuttelingsstrategie' toen de fundamenten van de economie begonnen te sidderen.
Eerst werd dat genegeerd of afgedaan als paniekzaaierij, een kleine teruggang waarin het even iets minder gaat, of het "we moetern elkaar geen recessie aanpraten" en Nederland staat er goed voor. Zelfs in de Troonrede van september 2008 was de ontkenning nog volop aanwezig. (Die Troonrede lag al maanden in de la en kon natuurlijk niet op het laatste moment gewijzigd worden. Zie of download: Troonrede 2008.pdf) Tot op zekere hoogte een excuus maar terwijl de bankencrisis naar een (voorlopige) climax toegroeide ook ongeloofwaardig en ronduit kortzichtig.

Het doet een beetje denken aan de optimistische voorspellingen vlak voor het Millennium in de trant van 'Nederland is af', terwijl enkele jaren later de zeg maar gewoon "de pleuris uitbrak" met de moord op Fortuyn, de terroristische aanslag op en vernietiging van het World Trade Center, vervolgens de oorlogen in Afghanistan en Irak, de moord op Theo van Gogh, de politieke onrust daarna, etcetera.

Ook het rustige Nederland werd abrupt gedwongen de 21ste Eeuw binnen te stappen.
En nu na de bankencrisis, de kredietcrisis, de economische teruggang, het tumult over de positie van de Pensioenfondsen, en wat er ons nog meer te wachten staat, begint ook het Kabinet Balkenende wakker te worden en in te zien dat zelfs in dat 'economische polderparadijsje' (voedselbanken, 1 op de 10 kinderen in een armoede situatie, belabberd onderwijs, etc) aan de Noordzee niets meer zeker is.
Maar de geloofwaardigheid van de Regering is inmiddels nihil aan het worden.
Nu zien we Premier Balkenende in zijn wekelijks gesprek trots verkondigen dat hij net bij Gordon Brown op bezoek is geweest.
Uitgerekend bij Gordon Brown die niet bepaald uitblinkt door een verstandige strategie en visie, en qua uitspraken en beleid olie op het vuur aan het gooien is in de richting van een herhaling van de crisis van de jaren dertig met alle kwalijke gevolgen vandien.
Dat heeft veel weg van het bezoek aan zijn 'trouwe vriend George Bush'.
Moet er soms gelobbied worden voor een topfunctie bij de EU of het IMF?
Meer en meer informatie komt beschikbaar dat de recessie wel eens langer kan gaan duren, 2010/2011 wordt al genoemd.
Lobbyen vanuit Partijpolitiek belang of het belang van Nationaal Prestige in de 'belangrijke baantjes bussiness' voor een herhaling van 'de Jaap de Hoop Scheffer affaire' lijkt meer op een poging tot het oproepen van internationale minachting dan respect.
It's a Changing World!

Wordt vervolgd...

Nederland is straks de slome Henkie van Europa, zegt de één. Het kabinet probeert de economie te redden met de handrem erop, zegt de ander. En waarom kunnen vooral grote bedrijven graaien in de portemonnee van de overheid, zegt weer een ander. Over één ding zijn ze het eens: het kabinet faalt bij de bestrijding van de recessie.

Stimulus: What got cut

Stimulus: What got cut
Trimmed out of the Obama Stimulus Plan, funds for the Smithsonian, hybrid vehicles and polar icebreakers for the Coast Guard.

Items Cut: (Source CNN Money)

-- $3.5 billion for energy-efficient federal buildings (original bill was for $7 billion)

-- $75 million for Smithsonian (original bill was for $150 million)

-- $200 million for Superfund (original bill was for $800 million)

-- $100 million for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (original bill was for $427 million)

-- $100 million for Law enforcement wireless (original bill was for $200 million)

-- $300 million for federal fleet of hybrid vehicles (original bill was for $600 million)

-- $100 million for FBI construction (original bill was for $400 million)

Items Fully Eliminated:

-- $55 million for historic preservation

-- $122 million for new Coast Guard polar icebreaker/cutters

Obama Needs To Get Outside the Beltway.

(From MOJO Blog Mother Jones)
President Barack Obama needs to get outside the Beltway.
Not necessarily by hopping on Air Force One (which he has yet to use), but by reaching out to the millions of Americans who are rooting for him in order to obtain their active support for his economic stimulus plan. In the first fortnight of his presidency, Obama has mainly played an inside game, as he has tried to win congressional approval of an economic recovery package. When the nearly $900 billion measure was being considered in the House, Obama largely deferred to House Democrats, who shoved many long-yearned-for spending initiatives into the bill. Thus, a 647-page creature was born, which included provisions easy for Republicans and conservatives to deride and oppose.

...
In the past two weeks, Obama and his aides have encountered the typical difficulties of Washington. It's hard to find experienced influence-makers for high-level appointments who are not tainted by the town's K Street culture (Washington's K Street, a canyon of nondescript office buildings a few blocks north of the White House that is to influence-peddling what Wall Street is to finance.) It's tough to score bipartisan points by working with partisans. It's a bitch to ask Capitol Hill machers to change their ways (of appropriating and legislating). It's not easy to control the message when a cacophonous media focus (sometimes rightfully) on missteps and conflict.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (IMF) said Advanced Economies Already in Depression

Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Advanced Economies Already in Depression

(Source Bloomberg)
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Advanced economies are already in a "depression" and the financial crisis may deepen unless the banking system is fixed, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
“The worst cannot be ruled out,” Strauss-Kahn said in Kuala Lumpur, where he was attending a gathering of central bankers from Southeast Asia. “There’s a lot of downside risk.”
Ten days ago, the IMF cut its world-growth estimate for this year to 0.5 percent, the weakest pace since World War II. Stimulus packages alone won’t succeed in dragging the global economy out of recession unless confidence is restored in the banking system, Strauss-Kahn said today.
“All this will work if, and only if, the different countries are likely to do what they have to do in terms of restructuring the banking sector,” he said. “And today it’s not done.”
The U.S. economy has lost 3.57 million jobs since a recession started in December 2007, its biggest employment slump of any economic contraction in the postwar period as companies from Macy’s Inc. to Caterpillar Inc. cut costs. The U.K. economy will shrink this year by the most since 1946, the IMF forecasts.

Spending vs. Tax Cuts: Everything You Need to Know in One Chart

Spending vs. Tax Cuts: Everything You Need to Know in One Chart

(Source Mother Jones Magazine)
This is pretty excellent. It's a chart, created by Paul Rosenberg at Open Left, that combines data from Moody's Economy.com and Dean Baker's Center for Economic Policy and Research. It shows the return on investment for different stimulus options.



The takeaway? Food stamps, unemployment benefits, and infrastructure investment put the most money back into the economy for every dollar spent on them. Tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy do the least. (A payroll tax holiday, which is essentially a tax break for poor people, isn't so bad.) Job creation maps similarly.
So when conservatives tell you that FDR's public investment programs made the depression worse and that we need to hold fast to the conservative economic principles that created the current mess, shoot them this link. Perhaps President Obama should use that snazzy new BlackBerry of his to email it to his Republican opponents in Congress.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2009/02/12147_spending_vs_tax_cuts_as_stimulus.html

Gary Shilling's predictions – made in 2007 and repeated at the beginning of 2008.

Gary Shilling, editor of Gary Shilling’s Insight.
Gary’s predictions – made in 2007 and repeated at the beginning of 2008.

1) Prediction: The housing bubble will burst.

Result: Housing prices are down 25% nationwide from July 2006 – and they are going further. Homebuilders are down 75% from their high.

2) Prediction: “U.S. stock prices will fall below the 2002 lows in the midst of a major recession.”

Result: The current financial crisis wiped out over $7 trillion of stock market gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at the same level it was in 1997.

3) Prediction: China will suffer a hard landing due to domestic cooling measures and U.S. recession.

Result: China’s Shanghai Composite Index is down 55% in the last 12 months.

4) Prediction: “Weakness in U.S. and China will spread globally, dragging down economies and stocks universally.”

Result: Morgan Stanley Capital International’s Emerging Markets index is off more than 50% since the beginning of 2008.

5) Prediction: “Treasury bonds will rally.”

Result: Yields on 10-year Treasurys fell from 5.1% in June 2007 to 2.8% recently.

6) Prediction: “The subprime slime fallout will spread.”

Result: Single b-rated junk bonds now yield 18%, up from 8% in mid 2007, as their prices have plummeted. Spreads over Treasurys are now 1591 basis points, versus about 321 basis points in mid 2007.

SEC says magnitude of Ponzi schemes growing

SEC says magnitude of Ponzi schemes growing

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The frequency of Ponzi schemes is not increasing but the magnitude of the frauds is, a Securities and Exchange Commission official said on Friday.
The SEC has been under intense scrutiny for not uncovering the alleged $50 billion fraud carried out by former Nasdaq Chairman Bernard Madoff, who is accused of running a massive Ponzi scheme for years.
Donald Hoerl, director of the SEC's Denver office, said the agency has filed about 70 Ponzi cases in the last two years and has filed four cases since Madoff was charged in early December.
"That's not a dramatic upswing in terms of the number of cases," said Hoerl, speaking at the Practising Law Institute's annual SEC Speaks conference. "What is different is the magnitude of the Ponzi schemes."

Ponzi schemes involve frauds in which early investors are paid with money from later investors.
Hoerl said the SEC's recent Ponzi scheme cases involve staggering amounts of money. In late January, the agency charged then-missing fund manager Arthur Nadel with defrauding investors at six Florida-based hedge funds.
The SEC said Nadel provided false information to investors about the funds' returns and overstated the value of the investments by $300 million.

The Art Market, Art Rotterdam. (Video)

The Art Market. Next a Flight to Quality?
Art Rotterdam, de kunstbeurs voor hedendaagse kunst. Volkskrant-recensent Rutger Pontzen peilt in hoeverre de economische crisis van invloed is op de kunstmarkt. Hij ziet: veel gemiddelde kunst, veel kitsch, veel camp. Als het maar verhandelbaar is. (4 februari 2009)

Link als de video niet werkt (meestal): http://www.vk.tv/cultuur/article1143585.ece/Art_Rotterdam_verkeert_ook_de_kunstmarkt_in_crisis

According to Todd Harrison a 'Monster Move' Coming for Stocks: S&P Could Hit 1000 by Spring

According to Todd Harrison a 'Monster Move' Coming for Stocks: S&P Could Hit 1000 by Spring

After two months of relative calm, there is a "monster move" coming for the stock market starting as early as next week, says Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com.
Harrison, who has largely been negative (and thus right) in the past year, is positioning himself for a rally that could bring the S&P 500 above 1000 by springtime, or an approximately 20% rally from current levels.
Not surprisingly, Harrison's upbeat outlook is based on a view the financials are poised to rally, despite (or maybe because of) the prevailing negativity surrounding the group.

5 February 2009 - Monetary policy decisions

Bank of England cuts rates to record low of 1 percent, ECB leaves rates unchanged

European Central Bank -5 February 2009 - Monetary policy decisions
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 3.00% and 1.00% respectively.

Press Release - Introductory statement
Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB,
Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the ECB
Frankfurt am Main, 5 February 2009

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to today’s press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by Commissioner Almunia.

On the basis of its regular economic and monetary analyses, at today’s meeting the Governing Council decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. As anticipated in our interest rate decision of 15 January 2009, the latest economic data and survey information confirm that the euro area and its major trading partners are undergoing an extended period of significant economic downturn, and that accordingly both external and domestic inflationary pressures are diminishing. We continue to expect inflation rates in the euro area to be in line with price stability over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, thereby supporting the purchasing power of euro area households. This assessment is supported by available indicators of inflation expectations for the medium term. It is also confirmed by the further deceleration in monetary and credit growth in the euro area. Fully in line with its primary objective, the Governing Council will continue to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored in accordance with its definition of price stability, that is inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This supports sustainable growth and employment and contributes to financial stability. Overall, the level of uncertainty remains exceptionally high. Accordingly, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.

Allow me to explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Reflecting the impact of the intensified and broadened financial market turmoil, economic activity throughout the world, including in the euro area, has weakened substantially. Foreign demand for euro area exports has declined, and domestic factors, notably very low confidence and tight financing conditions, have adversely affected domestic demand. Taken together with other available economic data for the euro area, this points to very negative quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth in the last quarter of 2008.

This information is in line with our current analysis and forward-looking assessment. We continue to see persistent weakness in economic activity in the euro area over the coming quarters, as the financial market tensions have a further impact on the global and domestic economy. At the same time, the very substantial fall in commodity prices seen since the middle of 2008 should support real disposable income, and thus consumption, in the period ahead. Most recently, there have been tentative signs of stabilisation in some survey data, albeit at historically low levels. These indications, however, require confirmation on a broader basis.

Read the whole statement at the ECB website

Stock Market is Bottoming, Equities VS Gold Bullion

Stock Market is Bottoming, Equities VS Gold Bullion
(Courtesy: Chris Vermeulen, www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com)

Stock market looks like it has bottomed forming a similar pattern as it did in 2003. What is the better investment during an opportunity like this if this is the bottom: Stocks, Gold Bullion or Mining Stocks?
I recommend investors start thinking about putting some long term money to work giving it at least 4 years to mature. Today I started investing some long term money with some great looking Canadian ETFs for dividends, Growth and commodities. There are tones of ETFs in the USA for picking what you think will perform nicely during the next bull market.

If you would like to receive my free weekly market updates please visit my website:
Chris Vermeulen, www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Download and Read the PDF with charts and analysis

Davos: Is Capitalism, as We Know It, Dead?

Davos: Is Capitalism, as We Know It, Dead?
Video Marketwatch
As a record number of heads of state gather with business moguls in Davos, WSJ's Andy Jordan wonders whether the World Economic Forum's focus will be on finger-pointing or collaboration to halt the current global financial-markets slide.

CDS Regulation: Good or Bad? Video

CDS Regulation: Good or Bad?
Dan Dicker, RealMoney.com contributor, says the new CDS rule will help and hurt the markets but regardless you have to avoid certain stocks.

High-End Housing Market hit by Market Crash

High-End Housing Market Ravaged by Stock Selloff

For wealthier Americans, the free-fall in stocks is not only ravaging their portfolios-it's taking a huge bite out of the value of their homes.
"The high-end market relies on equities," says Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. "If stocks are doing well, so too does high-end housing."
Though only 2 percent of the overall housing market, high-end home sales have seen a dramatic drop, according to Molony. Homes valued at $750,000 or more plunged a whopping 47 percent in the year ended in November. By comparison, homes valued at $400,000 or less fell by only 3 percent during the same period.
A look at the markets during the same time period shows the Dow Jones fell 33.1 percent, while the S&P shows a 37.5 percent drop in value.
Real estate professionals agree that sliding markets and a ravaged economy are hurting prospective high-end buyers and sellers. And that means prices will likely decline even more before there is any recovery. Read article... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/HighEnd-Housing-Market-cnbc-14235694.html

Vodafone, revenues rose 14 percent in the fourth quarter to 10.47 billion pounds ($15 billion)

Vodafone Group has released its Interim Management Statement for the quarter ended 31 December 2008.

(Source Yahoo) Mobile phone service provider Vodafone Group PLC saw its shares rise 6.6 percent after it said revenues rose 14 percent in the fourth quarter to 10.47 billion pounds ($15 billion), compared to the same period a year earlier. The rise was led by a 28-percent gain in its Asia, Pacific and Middle East operations.

Download
Presentation (PDF 110kb)
Press Release (PDF 150kb)

Searching for an Optimist at Davos

Searching for an Optimist at Davos

(From Slate Magazine, ... went to Davos but could not spot the 'famous optimistic Davos Man'. What's going on in the World? Only big profits for Pharmaceutical Conmpanies in 2009, or will a bit of fresh air and some physical activity do the trick? Will people after the 2010 WEF meeting cautiously ask how your health is and whether you need some help? )

CNBC's Jim Cramer likes to say that there's always a bull market some­where. When one region is down, the theory goes, another is up. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, however, the only bull market was in pessimism. On the Promenade, Davos's main drag, a woman accosted me, asked whether I knew what was in the Book of Revela­tion, and wondered whether I had been inscribed in the Book of Life.
Historically, such apocalyptic thoughts have been rare at this meeting of the world's financial and political elite. A Davos Man is an optimist by nature and profession. Ordinarily, self-assurance is so thick in the resort town, you can cut it with a Swiss Army Knife. But the only place I saw people laughing in the face of danger and wearing exhilarated expressions was on the sparsely populated ski slopes.
Yet many CEOs bore the harrowed looks of survivors of the Donner Party. Once they trickled in, many having endured the indignity of flying commercial for the first time in years, they were treated to an avalanche of doomsaying. Alarmists, from hedge-fund manager George Soros to historian Niall Ferguson, spun elaborate tales of catastrophe. Ferguson boldly concluded that the United States was destined for a decade of extremely lame growth. Economists were universally downbeat, which isn't totally surprising. (They don't call economics the dismal science for nothing.) Those who had successfully predicted the debacle, like Nouriel Roubini, New York University's Dr. Doom, were elevated to prime speaking slots. Last year, the hot topics were sustainability and decoupling—the notion that developed markets could boom even if the United States stalled. This year, failure and depression were the chief subject of discussion.
Read on, follow the link..
http://www.slate.com/id/2210100?wpisrc=newsletter

'Significant' Risk of Protectionism: Globalization Backlash as Markets Crumble

'Significant' Risk of Protectionism: Globalization Backlash as Markets Crumble

The failure of Wall Street to police itself has put capitalism on trial and prompted a "huge shift" in the debate over globalization, says Leo Tilman, president of strategic advisory firm L.M. Tilman & Co. and author of Financial Darwinism.
Indeed, although the debate over immigration seems to have died down in the U.S, a backlash against globalization is growing; notable examples include:

* The anti-U.S., anti-capitalism rhetoric of the Davos summit, most notably from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
* Protectionist measures being discussed as part of the U.S. stimulus bill.
* Protests in the U.K. against legal immigrants and Spain's "voluntary return plan," whereby legal immigrants are paid to return to their home countries.

Against this backdrop, and with politicians worldwide scoring points with anti-globalization comments, Tilman says there is "significant probability" of overzealous regulation and/or protectionist policies that exacerbate the current economic malaise.

The Markets in the beginning of February 2009

The Markets in the beginning of February 2009

January 2009 turned out to be one of the worst months for the stock markets for years (or ever until now). Dismal results and predictions from large companies, rising unemployment, and a dire outlook everywhere. News about a global recession almost ever day.
The Obama Inauguration seems to be the only real changing news for many, although the quarrel about the Stimulus Plan between Democrats an Republicans is gathering momentum. Wallstreet and the Banking sector are despite the bailout money keeping on their large bonusses with showing few responsibilty for the social implications for their personal or corporate greed.
Social unrest was on the rise worldwide.
According to the latest news, incomes in the U.S. are falling and saving is on the increase.
An analysis from last months figures show a rise of inventories, the holiday retail sales in December were pretty bad as well.
All together no reason to expect an upsurge in the markets or a prolonged bear market rally, but more bad news for the first quarter of 2009.

Today, February 2nd, Far East Market were depressed with losses of 1.5 and 3 percent.
China is coming up with a second Economic Stimulus Plan, the unemployent situation is getting grimmer.
Europeam Markets were losing ground with losses of 2 up to 2.5 percent. (Amsterdam 16.00 CET).
At he same time U.S. Markets were slightly off with the Dow losing less than 1 percent and the Nasdaq turning green again, the S&P 500 just over a half percent in the red.
(Update 16.35 CET) Stocks pare losses after better-than-expected reading on manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management. Markets in Europe and U.S. going up on this news.

From the WEF in Davos not much ground breaking news this year, the famous 'Davos man' seems to suffer a bit from an upcoming depression and a lack of creativity.

Global financier George Soros says the world needs to push faster to clean up the bad debt problem with a creation of a "Bad Bank" to absorb toxic assets.

Obama to Move On CEO Pay Plan, 'Bad Bank' Delayed
In an interview aired on NBC Monday, Obama said, "I don't want to pre-empt an announcement next week," when asked if the administration was committed to the bad bank idea.
The President added that "we're going to have see some of this debt written down."'

Soros has a new book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, I haven't read it yet, however, books of George Soros are usually worth reading and recommending.



There's an old saying on Wall Street: "So goes January, so goes the year."

If the so-called January Indicator holds any water, 2009 is going to be another rough year as January 2009 was the worst January ever for both the Dow and S&P, which began February in retreat as well.
Leo Tilman, president of strategic advisory firm L.M. Tilman & Co. and author of Financial Darwinism, is not a big believer in January's predictive capabilities. But he does expect 2009 to be another "difficult year for sure" for stocks, based largely because of the ongoing deterioration of the economy.
Because of the "unprecedented uncertainty" regarding the timing and composition of both a stimulus bill and the next phase of bank bailouts, Tilman's "best-case scenario" is for the economy to stabilize by year-end and financial markets to be range-bound.





Tilman about Wallstreet's survival
* The "strategic vision" of Wall Street executives, a group Tilman says is still largely ignorant of what levels of risk and leverage are (and aren't) appropriate. (Figuring out how to rethink the business models and reengineer the parts that aren't working is a big part of Tilman's consulting work and the focus of his book. )
* The structure of the U.S. economy. If it remains based on consumer borrowing and spending, don't expect Wall Street to change its securitzing ways, he says.
* The future regulatory environment.

Regarding the latter, Tilman is a believer in the need for more transparency and regulation that enables capitalism to "function in a more constrained, responsible way." But there's a "huge danger" regulation will be enacted very quickly in this current anti-Wall Street environment that will end up " choking the financial services industry and choking capital markets."

Reform and Recovery

News Analysis
A Stimulus Plan With Dual Goals: Reform and Recovery (New York Times Permalink)
By DAVID E. SANGER Published: February 1, 2009
Can the government fashion a fast and efficient stimulus plan while also seizing the moment to remake America?

Business Books in the current business climate

What Makes a 'Best' Business Book?
A new compilation of the "best" business titles in management and other areas misses a chance to relate to today's troubled climate, says BusinessWeek's Hardy Green

Jack Covert and Todd Sattersten, authors of The 100 Best Business Books of All Time: What They Say, Why They Matter, and How They Can Help You (Portfolio, 2009). Almost every business-book reader will find a way to take exception to the Covert-Sattersten list.
The authors are both executives with Internet bookseller 800-CEO-READ, but they insist that their volume isn't just a come-on to stimulate sales for their business. "It's our attempt at helping the modern businessperson find solutions," says Covert.
Finance and economics titles would seem to be a natural, especially in today's troubled financial climate—but Covert and Sattersten include almost none. Guys, take a look at the current business best-seller lists, and you'll discover what readers are interested in now. Such titles as Charles R. Morris' The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash (Public Affairs, 2008), or Charles D. Ellis' The Partnership: The Making of Goldman Sachs (Penguin Press, 2008), or Paul Krugman's The Return of Depression Economics (Norton, 1999 and revised in 2009) are hot sellers this week. For an oldie but goodie, you could even include John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash 1929 (Mariner Books, 1954), a paperback best-seller today.