Deflation fears spread in Japan after consumer prices fall at record pace

Record fall in Japan prices fuel deflation fears
Deflation fears spread in Japan after consumer prices fall at record pace

TOKYO (AP) -- Deflation is clawing its way back in Japan, and that's not good news for an economy trying to recover from its worst recession since World War II.

Japan's key consumer price index tumbled at a record pace in May, the government said Friday. The core nationwide CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, fell 1.1 percent from the previous year in the third straight month of decline.

The result marked the biggest fall since the government began releasing comparable data in 1971.

Japan appears to be "heading for another lengthy period of deflation," said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo.

Lower prices may seem like a good thing, but deflation can hamper growth by depressing company profits and causing consumers to postpone purchases, leading to production and wage cuts. It can also increase debt burdens.

The drop in underlying prices is "set to be persistent" and can lead to various problems for companies and individuals because interest rates will "be too high for prevailing economic conditions," Jerram said in a note to clients.

Japan underwent a destabilizing bout of deflation during the 1990s, and again earlier this decade, when the world's second-largest economy struggled to escape from a real estate and banking crisis.

After the results, Japan's finance minister Kaoru Yosano expressed concerns about a significant slowdown in demand.
"We continue to monitor price movements, and need to carefully implement economic management to avoid...a deflationary spiral," Yosano said at a news conference, according to Kyodo news agency.
With crude oil prices down dramatically from record highs a year earlier, energy and transportation prices fell sharply in May. Fuel, light and water charges were down 3 percent, and private transportation costs tumbled 9.2 percent.
But analysts point to the 0.5 percent decline in so-called "core-core CPI," which excludes food and energy, as a more troubling sign of weakness in underlying prices.
Prices for household durables fell 4.9 percent, and those for clothing slipped 0.5 percent.
The core CPI for Tokyo dropped 1.3 percent in June, suggesting that prices nationwide are headed further south. Prices in the nation's capital are considered a leading barometer of price trends across Japan.
"This is consistent with media reports that large supermarkets are marking such goods down as households turn increasingly defensive amid severe employment and income conditions," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.
Japan's central bank predicts that prices will keep falling for at least two years. In its latest economic outlook report in May, it forecast core CPI to drop 1.5 percent this fiscal year ending March 2010 and another 1 percent the following year.

Japan, the world’s second-largest economy is shrinking.

Japan, the world’s second-largest economy shrinking, worst since 1974 Oil Shock

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe triggered a record drop in exports.
Gross domestic product fell for a third straight quarter in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 11.6 percent contraction.
Exports plunged an unprecedented 13.9 percent from the third quarter as demand for Corolla cars and Bravia televisions collapsed amid a slump that the Group of Seven nations said will persist for most of 2009. Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. -- all of which forecast losses -- are firing thousands of workers, heightening the risk a decline in household spending will prolong the recession.
“The economy is in terrible shape and the scary part is that we’re likely to see a similar drop this quarter,” said Seiji Adachi, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “All we can do is wait for overseas demand to pick up.”
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.4 percent at the close in Tokyo, extending the year’s losses to 13 percent. The yen rose to 91.59 per dollar from 91.76 on speculation Japan will refrain from taking measures to weaken the currency. The yen’s 18 percent gain over the past year has compounded exporters’ woes by eroding the value of their overseas sales.

Worse Than U.S., Europe
The world’s second-largest economy shrank 3.3 percent from the third quarter, today’s report showed. That compared with the U.S.’s 1 percent contraction and the euro-zone’s 1.5 percent decline, which was the sharpest in at least 13 years.
“There’s no doubt that the economy is in its worst state in the postwar period,” Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said in Tokyo. “The Japanese economy, which is heavily dependent on exports of autos, electronics and capital goods, has been severely hit by the global slowdown.”

Japan factory output plunges, jobless rate jumps

Japan factory output plunges, jobless rate jumps

Recession spreads in Japan as factory output plunges, joblessness jumps, family spending falls

TOKYO (AP) -- The pain of Japan's recession is spreading from the factory floor to the living room, as December figures showed companies slashed output at a record pace, the jobless rate surged and household spending fell sharply.
Industrial production at the nation's manufacturers plunged 9.6 percent in November, the largest drop since Tokyo began measuring such data in 1953, the government said Friday. A survey predicted further declines of 9.1 percent in January and 4.7 percent in February.
Meanwhile, Japan's unemployment rate jumped to 4.4 percent from 3.9 percent in November -- the biggest increase in almost 42 years, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Household spending dropped a worse-than-expected 4.6 percent in December, falling for the 10th straight month.
The global slowdown has crippled big-name manufacturers like Sony Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp., who rely heavily on overseas sales to drive growth. The yen's surge over the past few months has dealt a further blow to the world's second-largest economy by eroding exporters' overseas earnings.

Japanese electronics giant NEC Corp. says it plans to slash at least 20,000 jobs worldwide in an effort to cut 80 billion yen in costs over the next two years.

The Nikkei dropped 3.12 percent today, below 8000. Honda cuts annual profit forecast.

Mari Yamagiwa Solo Show in Monkdogz Urban Art Gallery (New York)

Mari Yamagiwa In Monkdogz Urban Art Gallery in Chelsea (New York) from Dec 17th 2008 - Jan 18th 2009.
While you are in New York this Christmas Season and walk around in the Chelsea district don't forget to visit the Solo Exhibition "INSTINCT" of the promising young Japanese Artist Mari Yamagiwa at the Monkdogz Urban Art Gallery. Her works (paintings and mixed media) are very original and a great investment in original and Contemporary Art.
The Show is from December 18th 2008 untill January 17th 2009,in the Aperture Building on West 27th St in Chelsea.
You are invited for the Opening Reception on Decenber 6th from 6 to 8 pm, to see the paintings, have a drink and talk about all the marvellous things to happen in 2009.

A collection of Mari Yamagiwa's Works can also be found at:
Kunstjaar: http://www.kunstjaar.nl/html/specials.html
Art-Represent:http://www.art-represent.com/html/mari_yamagiwa.html
VirtualGalleries-World: http://www.virtualgalleries-world.com/html/mari_yamagiwa.html

20 November, 09.45 CET (Amsterdam) De markten update

Het ziet er weer niet zo best uit vandaag, de AEX op dit moment bijna 3% in de min, alle Europese beurzen 2% tot 3% onderuit. In Amsterdam de financials weer lager, alleen Ahold op dit moment hoger.
De Aziatische beurzen ook fiks in de min, de Japanse export loopt terug dus Tokio bijna 7% lager gesloten. In China ook weer nervositeit.
Hoewel op het ogenblik de pre-market indices voor de Amerikaanse markten niet alarmerend laag staan, verwachten we daar ook weinig goed nieuws.
De FED ziet de economische omstandigheden in 2009 verder verslechteren (de Fed ziet eindelijk wat iedereen ziet).
De bailout of het reddingsplan van de grote 3 auto fabrikanten is nog (voorlopig of nooit?) niet rond en er is daarvan dus ook geen stimulans te verwachten.
Ook de Europese auto-industrie en wat daarmee verwant is begint steeds meer noodkreten te slaken, maar dat wist iedereen al.

De PAN Amsterdam opent deze week, koop eens wat kunst, brengt op lange termijn mogelijk meer op dan Bank aandelen.

Verder werken we aan een special over Rusland, maar dat is nog in de researchfase.