Posts are in English and some in Dutch. Een blog over de Beurskrach in 2008/2009, de financiële markten en de recessie. About the Stock Market Crash, the downturn, the recession, the follow-up and the World Economy.
Many companies pull back on research and development in tough times. WSJ's Jennifer Merritt speaks with Martin S. Roth of the University of South Carolina about how this move could leave them to peril.
The economic mess is getting bigger by the day, where is the bottom?
(Amsterdam, March 9, 2009, 12.00 CET) For more than 7 months we have predicted the bottom of the stock market around 180 points for the AEX (Amsterdam, Netherlands) and approximately 6000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wallstreet, U.S.) but now we have to take a more bearish outlook. For the AEX we expect something around 140 to be reached this year and for the Dow 4500. The banking troubles are for from over, there is much more bad news on the horizon. First and 2nd quarter company results do not look very well, McDonald cautions already on the stronger dollar and commodity costs squeezing the first quarter results. Today the markets get a short impulse of the Merck/Schering-Plough deal, but that's no more than a trickle of good news and not a turn around. Besides, with the markets in a continuous slump the weight of stocks and shares is beginning to look less important, the focus is turning more to the 'real economy'. And the next worry (or disaster?), all this money, the impact on future inflation, etcetera. The restoration of the global economy will take longer, instead of returning to healthy growth levels in 2010 we reckon with 2012.
A general lack of insight and new ideas is still the prevailing factor worldwide, the public is losing confidence in politicians to get the world out of this mess. We are waiting for the next wave of innovation, new ideas, solutions and products from the 'Tech sector' to give a boost to the world economy. Politicians and authorities apologizing for their mistakes or saying the equivalent of "Wir haben es nicht gewusst" are just out and not worth listening to! (Anyway they are a great resource to analyze and study their body language. So they're not completely useless!)
Dow 5000, Revisited (From the Tech Ticker) Wall Street is now talking openly about the possibility of the DOW dropping to 5,000 and the S&P 500 to 400-500. This is actually good news. The more negative everyone gets, the more likely we're getting close to a bottom. (Unfortunately, few strategists are actually predicting the market will hit this level yet. But at least they're talking about it.) The bad news is that 400-500 on the S&P would still be higher than previous major bear market lows on a price-earnings basis (See Robert Shiller's chart above and "How Low Can The Market Go?"). Fortunately, it's not that much higher. In the WSJ's story on DOW 5000 today, here's one fact that jumped out: Between April 8, 1932, and July 8, 1932, stocks fell 34% -- a little more than what it would take to get the S&P to 500. A level of 500 would take declines for the S&P to 68% since its October 2007 high, compared with the peak-to-trough depression-era slump of almost 90%. The most persuasive argument we've heard as to why stocks won't crash toward the Depression lows is Paul Kasriel's observation that the government has not yet blown it to the extent that the Hoover administration did. See the post...
Compiled with the help of 6,700 business experts and government officials around the world, "Doing Business 2009" analyzes how difficult it is to comply with 10 different sets of business regulations that affect company lifecycles, from startup to closure. The World Bank's research team examined the number of procedures required to start a business and the ease and cost of transactions such as obtaining construction permits, hiring workers, getting credit, paying taxes, enforcing contracts and declaring bankruptcy. Each category is given equal weight to create an overall "ease of doing business" index and ranking. http://www.doingbusiness.org/
Doing Business 2009 -- Full report now available for download! Azerbaijan was the top reformer in doing business, while Eastern Europe and Central Asia led the world’s regions in regulatory reforms, according to Doing Business 2009. Download the entire 211-page report to learn more about reforms and other changes to the business environment in 181 economies. Download full report (PDF, 4.7MB) or by chapter Also available in Arabic (PDF, 9MB), French (PDF, 5MB) and Spanish (PDF, 5MB) http://www.doingbusiness.org/documents/fullreport/2009/DB09_Full_Report.pdf
With the world in economic turmoil and the quest for a new 21st century economy gainig momentum, these reports provide (this report) very usefull information for business people, start ups, entrepreneurs, innovators and inventors who want to be part of the new business wave. A hundred years ago a wave of innovation happened, almost 50 years ago a new wave started in California in what later became Sillicon Valley. The spirit of these entrepreneurs and innovators is still very much alive but lots of them today are simply looking for the best places to set up business.
For our Dutch readers we would like to point out that The Netherlands is not even in the first 20 of the best places to do business.
What happens after a 100 years of the Model T? Under certain conditions the auto industry will get government help but they have to get their act together. The U.S. auto industry needs a management shake up, a reorganisation and an innovative vision for the next 50 years. That will save them.
Congress, White House tussle over form of automaker rescue WASHINGTON -- The White House and congressional Democrats launched a post-election showdown Monday over how to rescue U.S. automakers with millions of jobs, more than a century of iconic brands, and potentially economic confidence, riding on the outcome. As the year that celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Model T races to a close in volatile political environment, the Bush administration and many lawmakers agree that up to $25 billion in loans should be extended to General Motors Corp , Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC. But there are key differences on the details. Democratic leaders plan to forge ahead with an industry-backed proposal that would offer $25 billion from the Treasury Department's $700 billion financial industry rescue fund.
Shelby favors changing automaker management teams Wednesday November 19, 7:23 am ET - By Ken Thomas, Associated Press Writer Republican Shelby favors bankruptcy instead of bailout money for troubled automobile industry WASHINGTON (AP) -- The top Senate Banking Committee Republican says nothing will turn around the troubled U.S. auto industry until its top management is ousted and the manufacturing model overhauled. Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama said Wednesday he didn't think providing $25 billion in emergency loans to Detroit would do the jobs, calling that a "life support" option. Shelby said on CBS's "The Early Show" that he believes filing for bankruptcy might be the better choice. He said: "I don't think they have immediate plans to change their model, which is a model of failure." Rep. Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who heads the House Financial Services Committee, said he didn't think filing for bankruptcy would be a good strategy. He noted that such a move would likely mean that contracts with organized labor would have to be broken, saying "we already have too much union busting."
(Reuters Video) Congress weighs auto bailout (01:34) Report
The X1 prototype is a concept car, and a test platform. It is not a production car, and never will be. It’s a proof-of-concept vehicle that will lead to a production car in the future.
To build it as a prototype, we looked for the best of the best, in today’s technology. We chose the AC Propulsion (www.acpropulsion.com) 3-phase AC induction motor and inverter – the highest power/weight ratio system available; brilliantly engineered, and with about a decade of durability testing to date. For the chassis, we turned to Ariel, in Somerset. (www.arielmotor.co.uk). Simon Saunders, the designer of the Atom and the founder and CEO of Ariel, has created in our view one of the world’s most beautiful cars, as well as the quickest, lightest chassis on the road. To drive it is a revelation. Simon’s background is in automotive design, notably for Aston Martin and Porsche. The Atom chassis was substantially modified for the electric drivetrain, but retains the original styling. The X1 prototype is just the beginning. It meets its design specs of 0-60 in 3 seconds, 170 mpg equivalent; and at 1536 lbs, is only 36 lbs over the design target of 1500. It really does raise the performance driving experience to a new level, even for racing drivers. No clutch, no shifting, precise and immediate control of torque in drive and braking, perfect traction control…first gear takes you to 112mph…
In recent track testing, on street tires, it achieved the following performance: 0-30 mph: 1.35 sec 0-60 mph: 3.07 sec in 117 ft 0-100 mph: 6.87 sec 0-100-0 mph 11.2 sec Lateral g: 1.3 Braking g: 1.2
The X1 production car will be better… much better.
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Marie Raemakers
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