Obama Poll Sees Doubt on Budget and Health Care

U.S. / Politics
Obama Poll Sees Doubt on Budget and Health Care (New York Times Permalink)
By JEFF ZELENY and DALIA SUSSMAN Published: June 18, 2009
The latest New York Times/CBS News poll found a distinct gulf between President Obama’s overall standing and how some of his key initiative are viewed.

Roubini: New Regulations "Go in the Right Direction," But Not Far Enough

Roubini: New Regulations "Go in the Right Direction," But Not Far Enough

The new Wall Street regulations announced by President Obama yesterday "go in the right direction" but only accomplish about "75% of what needs to be done," says Nouriel Roubini, professor at NYU's Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor.

For example, making the Fed the systemic risk regulator makes sense from an institutional standpoint, "but have to have individuals committed to making sure the systemic risks are controlled," Roubini says, recalling the Greenspan Fed had the power -- but not the will -- to regulate mortgage lending during the housing boom.

"They allowed all this toxic underwriting because they did not believe in supervision," he says of the Greenspan Fed. "They were in favor of any kind of financial 'innovation'."
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/266396/Roubini-New-Regulations-%22Go-in-the-Right-Direction%22-But-Not-Far-Enough?tickers=XLF,FAS,FAZ,SKF,AIG,BAC,JPM

Nouriel Roubini's Three Reasons Why Stocks Are Bound to Fall

Bailout Nation: Was TARP Just a Ruse to Protect Citigroup?

Bailout Nation: Was TARP Just a Ruse to Protect Citigroup?

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/264931/Bailout-Nation-Was-TARP-Just-a-Ruse-to-Protect-Citigroup?tickers=MS,JPM,C,BAC,XLF,FAS,FAZ,

With JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and other big banks reportedly set to start repaying TARP funds as early as tomorrow, many are ready to turn the page on this sordid chapter in our nation's financial history.

But Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ and author of Bailout Nation, is still trying to figure out why we went through the whole exercise in the first place.

In his new book Bailout Nation, Ritholtz discusses the possibility that TARP was all a giant ruse, "a Hank Paulson engineered scam to cover up the simple fact that Citigroup was teetering on the brink of implosion," has he writes in his popular blog The Big Picture. "A loan just to Citi alone would have been problematic, went this line of brilliant reasoning, so instead, we gave money to all the big banks."

We delve further into this theory in the accompanying video. While it can never be fully proven, Ritholtz's "just a ruse to protect Citi" idea seems plausible given:

* The reaction of many other banks forced to take TARP funds;
* The extraordinary level of bailouts and debt guarantees aimed specifically at Citi;
* Regulators' fears last fall about the "systemic risk" if a big bank were allowed to fail.

Standard & Poor's cuts ratings on 22 banks S&P cuts ratings on 22 banks amid concern over further weakening in financial sector

Standard & Poor's cuts ratings on 22 banks
S&P cuts ratings on 22 banks amid concern over further weakening in financial sector

NEW YORK (AP) -- Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut ratings and revised outlooks on 22 banks amid concern about further weakening in the financial sector.
S&P said the changes reflected its assessment that volatility will remain in the financial sector and the industry is expected to face tighter regulatory oversight. S&P also said loan losses, which have plagued the industry for more than a year, are likely to continue to increase and could grow beyond expectations.

BB&T Corp., Capital One Financial Corp., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Regions Financial Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. were among the largest banks that saw their ratings cut by S&P.

Widescale changes to the industry because of the credit crisis and ongoing recession will dramatically alter the banking landscape, S&P credit analyst Rodrigo Quintanilla said in a release.

"We believe the banking industry is undergoing a structural transformation that may include radical changes with permanent repercussions," Quintanilla said. "Financial institutions are now shedding balance-sheet risk and altering funding profiles and strategies for the marketplace's new reality. Such a transition period justifies lower ratings as industry players implement changes."

S&P did note that recent capital raising efforts in the sector will help defray some of the losses banks are facing.

Lower credit ratings make it more expensive for companies to borrow money and can sometimes lead to difficulty accessing credit. Low ratings can also affect investments in a company's debt as some institutional investors are required to only hold debt rated at a certain level.

Ratings were also cut on Associated Banc Corp., Astoria Financial Corp., Carolina First Bank, Citizens Republic Bancorp Inc., Comerica Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, First National Bank of Omaha, Huntington Bancshares Inc., KeyCorp, M&T Bank Corp., Susquehanna Bancshares Inc., Synovus Financial Corp., U.S. Bancorp, Valley National Bancorp, Webster Financial Corp., Whitney Holding Corp., and Wilmington Trust Corp.

The ratings of Carolina First Bank, Citizens Republic Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Synovus Financial and Whitney Holding were cut to junk status from investment-grade levels. The other banks all saw their ratings remain at investment-grade levels.

Big banks still not lending

Big banks still not lending
Loan volume at the 21 largest recipients of government funding fell 7% during the month of April, according to a survey by the Treasury Department.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Lending at the nation's top banks slowed in April, according to a government report published Monday, driven in part by continued deterioration in the U.S. economy.

The dollar amount of new loans issued by the 21 biggest recipients of taxpayer funds under the government's Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, fell 7% to $273 billion from nearly $295 billion during the month of March.

Regulators attributed part of the decline to lower demand for new commercial and industrial loans, which fell nearly 29% during the month as U.S. businesses broadly avoided acquisitions, building plants and buying inventory.

Weakness was also notable across a wide variety of consumer loan categories, including first mortgages and credit cards. Of the 21 banks that took part in the survey, 15 reported a decline in loan originations, according to the Treasury Department.
Banks have been under pressure to increase lending since the government provided billions of dollars in aid to help prop up the industry last fall.
Consumers and businesses continue to argue that credit remains tough to come by, but banks maintain they are lending even as the appetite for new loans has dropped.
Instead, consumers seemed to be focused on paying down debt in April, regulators said Monday. The total amount of outstanding loans in the survey fell 0.8% to $4.34 trillion from $4.38 trillion in March.
One new feature of the monthly survey was a reading on small business lending. The government said that the amount of new small business loans was roughly $8 billion in April, although it did not provide numbers for small business lending from the previous month.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/15/news/companies/tarp_banks_lending/index.htm?postversion=2009061516

ECB Says Euro-Region Banks May Lose a Further $283 Billion

ECB Says Euro-Region Banks May Lose a Further $283 Billion

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Commercial banks in the 16-nation euro region may lose a further $283 billion by the end of next year as the financial crisis forces them to write off bad loans, the European Central Bank said.

“Hard-to-value assets have remained on bank balance sheets and the marked deterioration in the economic outlook has created concerns about the potential for sizeable loan losses,” the Frankfurt-based ECB said in its June Financial Stability Report today. ECB staff estimates suggest the total amount of potential write-downs over the period 2007 to 2010 “could amount to around $649 billion.” Some $365 billion have already been reported, it said.

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, has booked about $14.9 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis began in the middle of 2007, less than $2 billion of which were related to subprime loans. Worldwide losses tied to distressed loans and securitized assets may reach $4.1 trillion by the end of 2010 amid the worst global recession since World War II, the International Monetary Fund said on April 21.

“There is no room for complacency because the risks for financial stability remain high, also bearing in mind that the credit cycle has not yet reached a trough,” ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said at a press briefing in Frankfurt today. “Policy makers and market participants will have to be especially alert in the period ahead.”

The ECB expects the euro-region economy to contract by around 4.6 percent this year and 0.3 percent in 2010. Inflation is expected to average just 0.3 percent this year, the bank’s latest projections show.

“Banks should be encouraged to take advantage of the governments’ commitments for support and strengthen their capital buffers,” Papademos said. Still, because buffers have been maintained well above the minimum regulatory requirements, euro-area banks “appear to be sufficiently well capitalized to withstand severe but plausible downside scenarios,” he said. Read Article... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9OppHNsK.I4

Commodities Stocks Lead Declines

Commodities Stocks Lead Declines

European stocks headed lower Monday, hit by profit-taking in the oil and mining sectors.

(Source Wall Street Journal) The pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 1.6% at 210.83. London's FTSE 100 Index was off 1.8% to 4358.32, Frankfurt's DAX fell 2% to 4965.38, and the CAC-40 Index in Paris was down 1.9% at 3262.24.

The oil market has had the longest bull move with no serious retracement since January/July last year, said Simon Denham at capital Spreads, boosting oil equity stocks. "It must be mentioned that there is now room for a bit of a fall." Also gold is falling in harmony with everything else Monday morning, hitting the mining stocks.

"The weakness of the dollar has helped in recent weeks to send the precious metal higher," said Mr. Denham, "but there is a distinct feeling that investors now have more important things to worry about than getting sucked into another yellow metal bubble."

Shares in Royal Dutch Shell slid 2.9% while shares in ArcelorMittalwere 3.6% lower. The Dow Jones pan-European Stoxx 600 oil & gas index traded down 2% to 299.7, while the Dow Jones pan-European Stoxx 600 basic resource index was off 3.1% to 368.7.
Among other stocks to watch, TomTomdeclined 6.6% after the navigation-products maker said it plans to raise about $607 million by selling new shares to alleviate a heavy debt burden.

In Asia, share markets were mostly lower in subdued Monday trade, with energy and mining stocks falling. Japan's Nikkei index closed down 1%, while South Korea's Kospi Composite closed 1.1% lower. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was last seen 1.9% lower. Read Article... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124504751817214641.html

Today in Russian Business - June 15, 2009

Today in Russian Business - June 15, 2009
http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2009/06/today_in_russian_business_-_june_15_2009.htm

(Source Robert Amsterdam Blog)
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said that he believes the dollar is in 'good shape' and does not need to be replaced as a global reserve currency. Russia will not 'significantly' change the structure of its reserves, he added. The Moscow Times examines the place of Russia within BRIC, as its economy falters and its lack of a 'properly developed financial sector' becomes problematic. At the first formal summit of the BRIC nations, new global reserve currencies will not be discussed, but reforming international financial institutions will be. Russia and Canada will support Germany's deal to sell Opel to Magna. China Development Bank has extended a $1 billion credit line to VEB. Oleg Deripaska has invited two of Putin's allies, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, to join the board of a paper mill that he owns in a conciliatory gesture towards the Prime Minister. Bloomberg looks at Deripaska's links to Putin, and how as 'Russia's largest non-state borrower', the oligarch will manage to emerge from the crisis.
http://www.robertamsterdam.com/cgi-bin/mt4/mt-t.cgi/15145

IMF says worst not over

IMF says worst not over

LONDON (Reuters) - The head of the IMF questioned on Monday any debate about when to roll back stimulus spending, saying the world economy had yet to weather the worst of a recession that claimed a record number of European jobs.

The 16-country euro zone lost a record 1.22 million jobs in the first quarter, official data showed. Employment during the first quarter fell 1.2 percent year-on-year, the deepest annual drop since measurements started in 1995.

Even if some form of economic recovery is not far off, analysts say unemployment will climb for many months to come.

Underlining the fragile state of the global economy, an influential economist said China would not see a rapid rebound and South Korea's finance minister said its economy was still sliding, although the pace had slowed.

But in southern Italy, Group of Eight finance ministers meeting at the weekend described their economies in the most positive terms since the collapse of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers nine months ago heightened the world's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

"Their (G8) stance is that we are beginning to see some green shoots but nevertheless we have to be cautious," International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said during a visit to Kazakhstan. "The large part of the worst is not yet behind us."

Pressure has been building in the G8, particularly from fiscally conservative nations such as Germany and Canada, for plans to wind down stimulus as soon as it is no longer needed. Read Article... http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55E0BJ20090615

Traders Take to Oil Tankers (Barrons Video)

Traders Take to Oil Tankers (Barrons Video)
6/11/2009

(Video) Barron's Steve Sears discusses how traders are buying oil tanker stocks to profit from rising oil prices.

VEB vergelijking: Today's Brokers voordeligste internetbroker, Rabobank duurste

Today's Brokers voordeligste internetbroker, Rabobank duurste

Beleggen via internet is het voordeligst bij Today's Brokers. Rabobank rekent de hoogste kosten. Gemiddeld zijn beleggers via internet nu tot negen procent goedkoper uit dan vorig jaar. Vooral ING, vorig jaar de duurste optie, heeft de kosten fors verlaagd.

Dat blijkt uit het jaarlijks onderzoek van de VEB naar de kosten van beleggen via internet.
Today's Brokers was ook vorig jaar de internetbroker met de laagste kosten. Internetbeleggen via de Rabobank is het duurst. Vorig jaar bleek ING online klanten de hoogste kosten te berekenen maar door recente prijsverlagingen is de laatste plaats nu overgedaan aan Rabobank, dat in een flink aantal gevallen zelfs duurder is geworden dan vorig jaar.

Het onderzoek
De VEB vergeleek de kosten van een jaar beleggen voor 3 typen beleggers op de Amsterdamse beurs, elk met een effectenportefeuille bestaande uit aandelen in 15 verschillende beursfondsen ter waarde van 100.000 euro en opties ter waarde van 10.000 euro. De beleggers verspreiden hun transacties gelijkelijk over vier transacties: aandelenorders van 4.000 en 8.000 euro en optietransacties van 2 en 5 contracten.

De actieve belegger voert op jaarbasis 26 van elk van deze transacties uit (104 in totaal), de matig actieve 6 (24 in totaal) en de passieve 1 (4 in totaal). Het onderzoek houdt rekening met bewaarloon, vaste lasten, transactiekosten voor aandelen en opties en kortingen voor zover deze van toepassing zijn.

Voor alle modelbeleggers bleek Today's Brokers de goedkoopste, op de voet gevolgd door Lynx. Het verschil tussen beide internetbrokers is, vergeleken met 2008, groter geworden, omdat Lynx de tarieven ongewijzigd heeft gelaten, terwijl Today's ze heeft verlaagd. Bij Rabobank zijn alle modelbeleggers het duurste uit. Ondanks de uitkomst van het onderzoek in 2008, Rabobank bleek toen ook al relatief duur, is de Rabobank voor passieve en matig actieve beleggers duurder geworden.

In 2008 lagen de kosten van ING Bank veel hoger dan van de andere aanbieders, terwijl Postbank een aardige middenmoter bleek. Beide banken werden begin dit jaar samengevoegd. Dit jaar blijkt ING voor alle modelbeleggers niet alleen goedkoper dan ING Bank vorig jaar, maar ook goedkoper dan de Postbank.

Gemiddeld genomen zijn de kosten van internetbeleggen dit jaar gedaald, maar liefst vier aanbieders bleken voor alle modelbeleggers goedkoper geworden. Zie conclusies...
http://www.veb.net/content/HoofdMenu/Home/Nieuwsdossier/onderzoeken/brokeronderzoek2009.aspx

European stocks fall after grim industrial data

European stocks fall after grim industrial data
European markets fall after grim industrial data, ahead of expected subdued US open

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/European-stocks-fall-after-apf-15509211.html?sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Germany's DAX fell 23.89 points, or 0.5 percent, to 5,083.37 and the CAC-40 in France was 2.65 points, or 0.1 percent, lower at 3,332.29.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat revealed that industrial production in the 16 countries that use the euro slumped by 1.9 percent in April from the previous month. That was way more than the 1 percent decline expected in the markets and stoked worries that the recession in the euro zone may not yet have bottomed out, as some had hoped.

"April's euro-zone industrial production figures provide few signs that the negative effects from destocking and the collapse in global trade are waning," said Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics.

Industrial production plays a particularly important role in the European economy and its recovery, whenever it comes, will provide a clear indication that the worst of the recession is over.

Sharply lower industrial output was blamed for the massive 2.5 percent quarterly fall in the euro zone's first quarter gross domestic product. The recession in Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, was even greater as demand for its high-value exports, such as cars and heavy machinery, slumped amid the collapse in global trade.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 12.57 points, or 0.3 percent, at 4,449.30 with Barclays PLC down around 3 percent after it confirmed the sale of its global investment unit to U.S. fund manager BlackRock Inc. for $13.5 billion.

American Consumer: Down But Not Out

American Consumer: Down But Not Out

U.S. retail sales edged up 0.5 percent in May, sparked in part by deep discounts, notably in autos. Definitely goods news, indicating the U.S. consumer is recovering. On a related note of optimism, home-improvement retailer Home Depot said fiscal year earnings may not fall as much as feared.

And yet another sign of the shifting consumer: investors are dipping into equities again. Long-term mutual funds have had positive inflows for 12-straight weeks, according to Investment Company Institute.

But reality looks more like a search for a "new normal," as noted by Mohammed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco. Case in point the U.S. auto sector: U.S. auto sales peaked at 17 million in 2005, but a new normal of 10 to 12 million a year going forward seems more likely and hopeful.

So the consumer may be coming out of the bunker, but with unemployment on the rise and debt levels still very high, don't expect a recovery to the free-spending days of a few years ago anytime soon.
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/262652/American-Consumer:-Down-But-Not-Out

California Has 50 Days to Live

California Has 50 Days to Live
From The Business Insider, June 2, 2009:

California officially has a drop-dead date now. State Controller John Chiang told Arnold Schwarzenegger last night that the state has 50 days before it hits a financial meltdown. So in that time, it either needs a bailout, massive budget cuts, or a brand new bubble (green tech, internet, real estate, something like that).
The tax revenue numbers are not at all good for the green shoots crowd:
Reuters: Underscoring the severity of California's cash crisis, Controller John Chiang, who has previously warned the state's government risks running out of cash without a budget deal, said revenues in May fell by $1.14 billon, or 17.7 percent, from a year earlier.
Additionally, the revenues of the government of the most populous U.S. state fell short of estimates in Schwarzenegger's budget plan by $827 million, Chiang said.
Of all three outcomes, we'd say the federal bailout is the most likely, sinse surely a California collapse would kill any recovery.
Yesterday, the Economist's Free Exchange blog argued that, indeed, California is too big to fail. And though we're deeply uncomfortable with the concept, under the general notion of that idea, we'd say they're probably right:
California is the world's eighth largest economy, and it contributes roughly an eighth of total American output (and drives much of the output in surrounding states). It's very difficult to imagine the European Union standing by and allowing a budget crisis to ravage the German economy, or the IMF doing nothing at all to assist a Russia or a Brazil as they melted down.

Were California forced to make significant cuts to its spending, the ramifications could be quite serious. School systems and universities would be endangered (which would threaten the state's long-term economic prospects). Increases in crime, homelessness, and serious poverty would encourage residents to leave. Service cuts could threaten key industries. In short, the recession could grow far more serious in the state than it already is. That would threaten recovery across the nation.
See article..
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/262207/California-Has-50-Days-to-Live?tickers=dia,spy,CB,NVC,IQC,NXC,BJZ?sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

DNB voorziet 850 duizend werklozen

DNB voorziet 850 duizend werklozen

(Bron De Volkskrant)
AMSTERDAM - De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) verwacht dat de Nederlandse economie dit jaar met 5,4 procent zal krimpen. De werkloosheid loopt door de recessie op tot 8 á 9 procent van de beroepsbevolking in 2011. Dat blijkt uit de nieuwe ramingen die DNB donderdag presenteerde.
Volgens DNB is het grootste deel van de krimp van de Nederlandse economie al gerealiseerd. De komende kwartalen zal de teruggang van de economie niet zo sterk zijn als in het eerste kwartaal. De centrale bank ziet lichtpuntjes in de eerste tekenen van vertrouwensherstel in vooral de VS, de ontwikkeling van de beurskoersen en de weer gestegen vraag naar grondstoffen.

De werkloosheid stijgt volgens de rekenmodellen van de bank tot eind 2011 mogelijk met ongeveer 600.000 personen tot 850.000 werklozen. Daarbij vervallen alleen dit jaar al 165.000 arbeidsplaatsen. Door de forse stijging van de werkloosheid dalen de beschikbare inkomens en zal de consumptie tot en met 2010 krimpen, stelt DNB.

Aanzienlijk somberber
De nieuwe ramingen van DNB zijn aanzienlijk somberder dan de prognoses die het Centraal Planbureau (CPB) in maart presenteerde. Het CPB voorspelde toen voor dit jaar een economische krimp van 3,5 procent. De werkloosheid zou daarbij naar verwachting oplopen tot een gemiddelde van 675.000 werklozen in 2011. Het CPB komt aanstaande dinsdag met nieuwe ramingen voor de periode van 2009 tot en met 2011.

Voor de komende twee jaar hanteert DNB twee scenario's. Een waarin de wereldhandel en de binnenlandse bestedingen traag herstellen en een waarin het herstel sneller intreedt. In het somberste scenario krimpt de Nederlandse economie in 2010 met 1,4 procent om in 2011 met 0,7 procent te groeien. Het optimistischere plaatje levert een krimp op van 0,8 procent volgend jaar en een groei van 1,5 procent in 2011.
http://www.volkskrant.nl/economie/article1213219.ece/DNB_voorziet_voor_2009_economische_krimp_van_5,4_procent

New jobless claims drop more than expected; retail sales rise for first time in 3 months

New jobless claims drop to 601K; retail sales rise
New jobless claims drop more than expected; retail sales rise for first time in 3 months

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of newly laid-off Americans filing jobless claims fell more than expected last week and retail sales grew in May for the first time in three months. But a rise in the number of people continuing to receive jobless aid signaled that an economic recovery is still far off.

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 601,000. That's below analysts' estimates of 615,000.
Still, the number of people claiming benefits for more than a week rose by 59,000 to more than 6.8 million, the highest on records dating to 1967. The department also revised last week's data on continuing claims, replacing what had been a drop of 15,000 with an increase of 6,000.

That means continuing claims have set records for 19 straight weeks. The data lag initial claims by a week.
Retail sales rose for the first time in three months in May, as a rebound in demand at auto dealerships and gas stations helped offset weakness at department stores. The Commerce Department said retail sales increased by 0.5 percent last month, in line with economists' expectations. It was the largest increase since sales rose 1.7 percent in January following six straight declines.

Excluding autos, retail sales also grew 0.5 percent in May, better than the 0.2 percent gain that economists had expected.
Consumers may be spending a bit more and layoffs may be slowing, but companies are reluctant to hire amid the longest recession since World War II. That makes it harder for the unemployed to find work.
Jobless claims are a measure of the pace of layoffs and are seen as a timely, if volatile, indicator of the economy's health.
The four-week average of claims, which smooths out fluctuations, fell to 621,750, down from a high of about 658,000 in early April. Many economists see the decline as a sign that layoffs have peaked and the recession is bottoming out.
Still, the levels are far above what is customary in a healthy economy. Initial claims stood at 388,000 a year ago. Read Article...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-jobless-claims-drop-to-apf-15499914.html;_ylt=AnFrSL.4kfVt62DWnohZ9mm7YWsA?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

IEA Raises Oil Outlook for First Time in 10 Months

IEA Raises Oil Outlook for First Time in 10 Months

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency raised its global oil-demand forecast for the first time in 10 months on signs that the economic slowdown is abating.

The adviser to 28 nations increased its global oil demand estimate for this year by 120,000 barrels a day to 83.3 million barrels a day, driven by consumption in U.S. and China. Consumption worldwide will contract by 2.9 percent from last year, the biggest drop since 1981, the agency said in its monthly report today.

“These revisions do not necessarily imply the beginnings of a global economic recovery, and may only signal the bottoming out of the recession,” the Paris-based agency said. “It’s a fairly modest uptick. Underlying demand levels remain weak.”

Oil prices have climbed 61 percent this year. They traded above $72 a barrel in New York today for the first time in seven months on growing optimism about an economic recovery and as a weaker dollar drives investors toward commodities. Futures in New York rebounded to a seven-month high of $72.30 after the release of the report from as low as $71.32 earlier in the day.

Confidence in the world economy rose for a third month as U.S. job losses slowed and global production improved, a Bloomberg survey of users showed yesterday. A U.S. Labor Department report on June 5 showed the country lost the fewest number of jobs since September last month.
Tighter Fundamentals

Rallying crude prices have been driven by both tighter supply-demand fundamentals and “short-term flows” of speculative capital, David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said in a phone interview from Paris.

Analysts expect prices to average $61 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, according to the median of forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this month it expects oil to reach $85 by the end of the year,

The outlook for 2009 consumption in the most industrialized countries, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, was raised “marginally” to 45.2 million barrels a day. Inventories of crude and refined products in these nations amounted to 62 days of demand as of the end of April.
Read Article...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0JQcQcnQLFs

Productie Nederlandse industrie blijft dalen

Productie Nederlandse industrie blijft dalen

(Bron: De Telegraaf, DFT)
DEN HAAG (AFN) - De Nederlandse industrie heeft in april 13 procent minder geproduceerd dan een jaar eerder. Dat maakte het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) donderdag bekend.

De gemiddelde dagproductie van de Nederlandse industrie lag daarmee voor de vijfde achtereenvolgende maand meer dan 12 procent lager dan een jaar eerder.

In april werd in alle branches minder geproduceerd dan in april 2008. De voedings- en genotmiddelenindustrie deed het relatief het beste met 2 procent minder productie. De transportmiddelenindustrie kende de grootste afname, daar nam de productie met maar liefst 29 procent af.

(Bron CBS) Conjunctuurbericht, donderdag 11 juni 2009 9:30
Productie industrie 13 procent lager
http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/themas/dossiers/conjunctuur/publicaties/conjunctuurbericht/inhoud/maand/2009-06-11-m03.htm

De gemiddelde dagproductie van de Nederlandse industrie was in april 13 procent lager dan een jaar eerder. De afname van de productie bedraagt nu al vijf maanden op rij zo’n 12 à 13 procent.

In april werd in alle branches minder geproduceerd dan een jaar eerder. De voedings- en genotmiddelenindustrie deed het relatief het beste met 2 procent minder productie. De transportmiddelenindustrie kende de grootste afname met een 29 procent lagere productie.

Voor het bepalen van de kortetermijnontwikkeling in de productie kan het beste gekeken worden naar de seizoengecorrigeerde cijfers. Omdat de seizoenvrije maandcijfers soms een wat grillig verloop vertonen, wordt hiervoor het tweemaandsgemiddelde ten opzichte van twee maanden eerder gebruikt. Na correctie voor werkdageffecten en seizoeninvloeden bleef de industriële productie in de periode maart - april nagenoeg gelijk ten opzichte van de periode januari - februari.

Are Inflation Concerns Inflated?

Are Inflation Concerns Inflated?
6/3/2009

Amid new pronouncements that inflation is a looming possibility, WSJ's Economic Editor David Wessel explains the unlikely conditions that would spur inflation in the U.S.

What Obama Needs to Do to Get the U.S. Off Oil -- for Good

What Obama Needs to Do to Get the U.S. Off Oil -- for Good