The economic mess is getting bigger by the day. The bottom, AEX 145, DJIA 4500?

The economic mess is getting bigger by the day, where is the bottom?

(Amsterdam, March 9, 2009, 12.00 CET)
For more than 7 months we have predicted the bottom of the stock market around 180 points for the AEX (Amsterdam, Netherlands) and approximately 6000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wallstreet, U.S.) but now we have to take a more bearish outlook.
For the AEX we expect something around 140 to be reached this year and for the Dow 4500.
The banking troubles are for from over, there is much more bad news on the horizon.
First and 2nd quarter company results do not look very well, McDonald cautions already on the stronger dollar and commodity costs squeezing the first quarter results.
Today the markets get a short impulse of the Merck/Schering-Plough deal, but that's no more than a trickle of good news and not a turn around. Besides, with the markets in a continuous slump the weight of stocks and shares is beginning to look less important, the focus is turning more to the 'real economy'. And the next worry (or disaster?), all this money, the impact on future inflation, etcetera.
The restoration of the global economy will take longer, instead of returning to healthy growth levels in 2010 we reckon with 2012.

A general lack of insight and new ideas is still the prevailing factor worldwide, the public is losing confidence in politicians to get the world out of this mess.
We are waiting for the next wave of innovation, new ideas, solutions and products from the 'Tech sector' to give a boost to the world economy.
Politicians and authorities apologizing for their mistakes or saying the equivalent of "Wir haben es nicht gewusst" are just out and not worth listening to! (Anyway they are a great resource to analyze and study their body language. So they're not completely useless!)

Dow 5000, Revisited
(From the Tech Ticker)
Wall Street is now talking openly about the possibility of the DOW dropping to 5,000 and the S&P 500 to 400-500. This is actually good news. The more negative everyone gets, the more likely we're getting close to a bottom.
(Unfortunately, few strategists are actually predicting the market will hit this level yet. But at least they're talking about it.)
The bad news is that 400-500 on the S&P would still be higher than previous major bear market lows on a price-earnings basis (See Robert Shiller's chart above and "How Low Can The Market Go?"). Fortunately, it's not that much higher.
In the WSJ's story on DOW 5000 today, here's one fact that jumped out:
Between April 8, 1932, and July 8, 1932, stocks fell 34% -- a little more than what it would take to get the S&P to 500.
A level of 500 would take declines for the S&P to 68% since its October 2007 high, compared with the peak-to-trough depression-era slump of almost 90%.
The most persuasive argument we've heard as to why stocks won't crash toward the Depression lows is Paul Kasriel's observation that the government has not yet blown it to the extent that the Hoover administration did. See the post...

Is Warren Buffett Insane?

Is Buffett Insane?
November 28, 2008
In the midst of economic chaos, Warren Buffett recently made a bold prediction. He said that now is the time to buy American stocks. (Full Story on the Motley Fool)
Of course, this call seems utterly insane. Banks are failing, the credit markets are deadlocked, unemployment is skyrocketing, and there's likely to be terrible news for months.
On the other hand, this is Warren Buffett, and he's made these sorts of predictions before.
1974: Stagflation
The years 1973 and 1974 were two very bad ones for the market. OPEC had started flexing its muscles, causing oil to quadruple. This resulted in a long recession, with inflation spiking to 12.3% in 1974, while real GDP growth fell by 0.5%. America experienced stagflation -- the ugly combination of a recession and high inflation rates -- and people were terrified. The situation was even worse in the United Kingdom, where the government was bailing out banks after real estate crashed. Over those two years, the S&P 500 plunged by 42%.
It was then, on Nov. 1, 1974, at the height of the pessimism, that Buffett made his first well-publicized bullish market call. He noted that he was well aware that the world was in a mess, but that stocks were simply too cheap. "If you're only worried about corporate profits, panic or depression, these things don't bother me at these prices."
To be totally clear, Buffett made one of the most direct predictions of his entire career: "Now is the time to invest and get rich." Buffett himself was buying shares of The Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) and advertising agency Interpublic (NYSE: IPG).

(Comment from Trendsbridge: The circumstances are very different nowadays and History does not always repeat itself. But America is an Economic Powerhouse and a leading economic force, and there is no doubt they will get the present problems under control. The Bush years turned out to be quite messy and that's a main part of this situation.)