On Inauguration Day U.S. Markets closed lower

On Inauguration Day U.S. Markets closed lower

On the day of the Inauguraion of President Barack Obama the U.S. markets closed down by 4 and more than 5 percent. Asian and European markets were already very weak about dismal economic news and the continuing weakness in the banking sector. Especially the U.K. banks were very weak.

On Wednesday the 21st of January Asian markets closed down with 1 and 2 percent losses.
At 10.00 hours in Amsterdam the European markets showed weakness with losses of around 1 and 2 percent. The British Pound hit a seven and half years low against the dollar, with the UK banking sector continuing to suffer.
In Amsterdam (AEX) the financials were hit.
For Wallstreet the futures point to a stronger opening.
IBM came up with a very optimistic forecast for 2009. The Tech sector seems to be one of the gainers today.

Although dire predictions and dismal figures about the economy will prevail for the coming months, the seeds of a new optimism are planted. However, the whole global economy cannot be turned around within a few months and all the rot is not out of the financial system yet.
In the main part of the EU, which lacks inspiring and creative new leaders and which is plagued by a heavy and unflexible bureacratic system, things could turn much worser before improvement sets in.

Global U.S.A (Obama) adversaries beginnig to speak out (Bloomberg.com)
In places where the U.S. is considered an adversary, many citizens expressed skepticism that Obama, who pledged in his inaugural address yesterday to “seek a new way forward,” will be able to overcome decades of hostility.

Bad day for the markets in Europe and the U.S. (Jan 14th)

Bad day for the markets in Europe and the U.S.

European Markets were hit by the bad news from the U.S. and sank between 4 and 5 percent today. Walstreet got hammered by the bad news from the retail sector and continuing worries about the banking sector.
At this hour (Amsterdam, 21.20 CET) the main U.S. indexes are down well over 3 percent with the NASDAQ going to minus 4 percent. The DJIA is going towards the 8000 level again.
The outlook for the Asian Markets tomorrow looks pretty grim.
Oil dropped below $37.- on economic worries, bulging inventories and lower demand forecasting. Google shares kept barely above $300.-.
We saw today even signs of worry from the Dutch Government, they are beginning to understand the Netherlands cannot escape the recession.

The early January effect.

(Jan 6th 2009)
It is quite early in the month and in the year to give a judgement about the ' January effect' in the markets and trading volumes are rather thin. January is usually the month big institutional buyers and Pension Funds step in the market and begin buying in volume. Pension Funds are especially pressed to get better results this year.
After last year's fall and losses there are plenty of bargains to get and the money is available. The currency market is still a bit shaky and could turn out to be an extra volatility factor.

The dollar rose on news of the Obama Stimulus Plan and tax breaks for the general workforce. The recent rise of the American Dollar is a signal of a return in confidence in the USA. Gold went south by a rising dollar
Germany is coming up with a 50 Billion dollar economic stimulus plan, although Prime Minister Angela Merkel is still negotiating about the fiscal stimulus measures.

Auto sales in December were particularly bad, with in the U.S. for the first time the Big Three's (Ford, GM and Chrysler) share sinking below 50%.
Worldwide the auto industry looked like already in depression with Toyota closing up plants for January and part of February (even some days in March), only the French brands seem to do a bit better. In the Netherlands the auto sales for 2008 were only 1.1% lower than in 2007.
With the diplomatic flurry in the Middle East and the growing rage about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, Israël is expected to end its campaign within the next two weeks.
The wintercold days in Europe are ending and the yearly ritual of the Russia/Ukraine gas conflict become less important, and the only important question remains; "Who is lying the best?".
European markets were between 1% and 2% higher this morning with the DAX (+ 1.3%) strong and Volkswagen shares up 6%, Porsche owns over 50% o of VW and has to do something with Scania. U.S. market futures point to a higher opening. Retail figures from the UK were better than expected. The overall market sentiment is cautious but positive with renewed discussions between 'bulls and bears' flaring up.

More details emerge of the SEC's handling of the Madoff affair, and voices for a reorganisation of the Securities and Exchange Commission and better regulation sound louder. Bernie Madoff is accused of violating his bail terms.

Tip: It is certainly worth looking at Japan, the Japanese economy and the stock market, how they did over last 12 years and in their deflationary period in the beginning of this century, and learn lessons from it. Do not be over optimistic!

Worldwide there is a danger of expecting too much, too fast and too soon from the U.S. and the new President.

The first full trading week of 2009

The first full trading week of what promises to become a very turbulent and volatile year.

(Monday January 5th, 2009, 11.30 CET, Amsterdam)
On the first full trading week of 2009, Asian markets built on Wallstreet's Friday rally and closed up higher with substantial gains. In a shortened half-day session, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock average gained 183.56 points, or 2.1 percent, to 9,043.12, its first finish above the 9,000-point line since Nov. 10.
In greater China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 3.5 percent to 15,563.31 and Shanghai's key index gained 3.3 percent to 1,880.72. Singapore's benchmark jumped 4.5 percent, with stock measures in Taiwan, India, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand higher as well.

In Europe the markets opened all higher with very moderate gains, the mood seems to be cautious.
The ECB and the Fed are on the path of 'deflation fighting'. The ECB is expected to lower interest rates again on the 15th of January, 0.50% or 0.75% , is the analysts' consensus.
In calmer times, most bankers would happily offer a prediction when asked what they expected in the coming year. But after the trauma of the past 18 months, the consensus among those bank executives "who have managed to hang on to their jobs" is that they have no idea what will happen next. At the same time we do not hear very much from politicans and other authorities.
May be the traditional 'New Year Speeches' will offer a bit more insight.

This weekend more news came out about the Obama Stimulus Plan for the U.S. Economy. President-elect Obama's pick for commerce secretary Bill Richardson, has withdrawn his name owing to an investigation into a company doing business with his state of New Mexico.
American Markets are expected to open mixed, pre-market indicators point to the downward side.

Important figures this week: November construction spending, auto sales reports, a survey on the services sector, November factory orders, and chain store sales.
All of these indicators about the 'real' economy will offer little or no hope. For the markets this is of minor importance, indicators can be better or worser than expected. The first arriving 4th quarter reports and results can have more impact.
With at the moment no clear direction and concensus about 2009, 2010 and 2011, the markets will mostly be influenced by emotion and "the news of the day".
In 2009 we can expect more political- and social unrest, due to global deteriorating circumstances.

The Markets in the last week of the year

The world's stock markets are entering the last week of what has been a 'brutal' year with record losses.
The Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) has tumbled 36% and is on track to suffer its worst annual decline since 1931. The Nasdaq is off 42.5% and the S&P 500 is down 40.5%.
After the credit crunch of the beginning of this year the outlook for the world economy deteriorated surprisingly rapidly. Optimists still expect a return to growth in the second half of 2009. Pessimists expect this to happen not before the 3rd quarter of 2010.
Authorities and governments have a tendency to overestimate their capacities and usually simply look at the statistics (and not behind the figures) to stimulate the economy. We lean towards the pessimistic side until somewhat more rational and higher intelligence minds emerge. What has gone wrong in the last 25 (or more) years cannot be fixed in a couple of months or quarters.

Trading in the last week of this volatile year is low volume, a lot of traders are on vacation till the end of next week, trading is done for the books and year-end tax purposes. Companies and Governments wait with bad news till after the holidays.

In 2008 we saw a tremendous increase of the Oil Price and an almost equally fast decrease. The decrease is due to lower demand, less economic activity, the outlook and forecasts of the world economy. But already dissident voices within OPEC and pressures from outside OPEC ask for more production cuts to raise the crude oil price again.

The markets in Asia were slightly up this morning. (10.30 CET)
Europe opened with gains between 1% and 2.2%, on very low volume.
U.S. Markets, pre market indicators point to a moderately higher opening.

The Euro (€) is celebrating its 10th birthday this week.

20 November, 09.45 CET (Amsterdam) De markten update

Het ziet er weer niet zo best uit vandaag, de AEX op dit moment bijna 3% in de min, alle Europese beurzen 2% tot 3% onderuit. In Amsterdam de financials weer lager, alleen Ahold op dit moment hoger.
De Aziatische beurzen ook fiks in de min, de Japanse export loopt terug dus Tokio bijna 7% lager gesloten. In China ook weer nervositeit.
Hoewel op het ogenblik de pre-market indices voor de Amerikaanse markten niet alarmerend laag staan, verwachten we daar ook weinig goed nieuws.
De FED ziet de economische omstandigheden in 2009 verder verslechteren (de Fed ziet eindelijk wat iedereen ziet).
De bailout of het reddingsplan van de grote 3 auto fabrikanten is nog (voorlopig of nooit?) niet rond en er is daarvan dus ook geen stimulans te verwachten.
Ook de Europese auto-industrie en wat daarmee verwant is begint steeds meer noodkreten te slaken, maar dat wist iedereen al.

De PAN Amsterdam opent deze week, koop eens wat kunst, brengt op lange termijn mogelijk meer op dan Bank aandelen.

Verder werken we aan een special over Rusland, maar dat is nog in de researchfase.

Nov 6th. Profit taking and recession fears influence markets

After the recent rally and the election optimism it's profit taking, uncertainty, scepticism and recession fears across the board. Second down day in Europe.
Difficult 100 days ahead, waiting for new initiatives and exploring green technologies.
Markets decline wordwide, Asian markets negative Hang Seng slumps to lowest level sinc september 2006. Resources and commodities hit, indicating lower growth.
Stock markets heading for new lows. Tough end for the year.