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Showing posts with label V shaped recession. U shaped recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label V shaped recession. U shaped recession. Show all posts

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Nouriel Roubini says: The Worst Is Not Behind Us

Beware of those who say we've hit the bottom.

Not a V but a U shaped recession and probable a multi year L shaped recession.

"Obama will inherit an economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollars in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise, given price deflation, while the value of financial assets is still plunging."
Excellent (Dr. Doom) Prof. Nouriel Roubini has proved to be right before.

Well, that's a long sentence and certainly something to think about. And we would add: Americans are on average at least 35% overweight which greatly complicates the solution of the problems. (The bailout of the fastfood industry, or the reverse of the Evolution Theory and the return to Cannibalism. In America everything is possible)