Forget About Iran, Canada a Bigger Risk to Oil Market, Energy Trader Says

Forget About Iran, Canada a Bigger Risk to Oil Market, Energy Trader Says

The eyes of the world are fixed on the election protests in Iran. Yet, while unrest reigns in one of the world’s largest oil producers, crude prices have actually fallen below $70 a barrel. Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, says that’s because traders have already priced in the risk.

Get this: The big risk to prices, Schork says, comes from our friendly neighbors to the north. Canada is America’s biggest supplier of oil - most of it coming from tar sands. The problem, according to Schork, is that the Obama administration has taken “a rather belligerent stance” toward that supply because it’s not environmentally friendly. If the administration increased taxes on Canadian oil it “could be displaced...that will have an uplift to prices,” he goes on to say.

And, don’t forget the risk south of the border. Maturing oil fields, drug cartels and political instability in Mexico have the potential to drive up prices. If the U.S. doesn’t pay more attention to these risk factors, investment will continue to dry up and leave us paying more at the pump, Schork warns.

So while everyone is focused on geopolitical “hot-spots” like Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela, the real risk to crude prices may be much closer to home.

Swine influenza

Swine influenza
Influenza-like illness in the United States and Mexico (WHO statement)

24 April 2009 -- The United States Government has reported seven confirmed human cases of Swine Influenza A/H1N1 in the USA (five in California and two in Texas) and nine suspect cases. All seven confirmed cases had mild Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), with only one requiring brief hospitalization. No deaths have been reported.
The Government of Mexico has reported three separate events. In the Federal District of Mexico, surveillance began picking up cases of ILI starting 18 March. The number of cases has risen steadily through April and as of 23 April there are now more than 854 cases of pneumonia from the capital. Of those, 59 have died. In San Luis Potosi, in central Mexico, 24 cases of ILI, with three deaths, have been reported. And from Mexicali, near the border with the United States, four cases of ILI, with no deaths, have been reported.
Of the Mexican cases, 18 have been laboratory confirmed in Canada as Swine Influenza A/H1N1, while 12 of those are genetically identical to the Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses from California.
The majority of these cases have occurred in otherwise healthy young adults. Influenza normally affects the very young and the very old, but these age groups have not been heavily affected in Mexico.
Because there are human cases associated with an animal influenza virus, and because of the geographical spread of multiple community outbreaks, plus the somewhat unusual age groups affected, these events are of high concern.
The Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses characterized in this outbreak have not been previously detected in pigs or humans. The viruses so far characterized have been sensitive to oseltamivir, but resistant to both amantadine and rimantadine.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html

Swine influenza frequently asked questions, Download PDF (WHO)
http://www.who.int/csr/swine_flu/swineflu_qanda_20090425.pdf

Science (New York Times Permalink)
Dot Earth: Contagion on a Small Planet
By By Andrew C. Revkin Published: April 26, 2009
A spreading outbreak of swine flu is showing the global reach of disease on a small planet.

Swine flu deaths rise
(01:54) Report Reuters Video

Apr 26 - Governments around the world rush to halt the spread of a new strain of flu.



Pandemic fears over U.S-Mexico flu
(01:26) Report Reuters Video

Apr. 25 - The World Health Organisation says the outbreaks of swine flu could lead to a worlwide pandemic but it is too early to tell.