Is the recession over?

Is the recession over?
Some experts point to stabilization in the housing and job markets as signs the recession has ended. Others continue to see weeds - not green shoots.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The recession began in December 2007. Did it end sometime this spring?

It's a provocative question that's tough to answer. It's tempting to say the recession is over when that seems to be what the stock market is telling us.

But Wall Street hardly has a perfect track record: There were numerous bear market rallies during the Great Depression, for example.

Stocks also enjoyed a nice run last spring after Bear Stearns almost imploded, even though the collapses of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), Lehman Brothers and AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) were still yet to come.

"With all due respect to Mr. Market, it is highly fallible as a forward looking barometer," said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, a Toronto-based wealth management firm.
The bear case: 'Less bad' does not equal good

The jump in stocks also poses another chicken-versus-egg question: Is the market rallying because people think the recession is over or do people think the recession is over because the stock market is rallying?

If it's the latter, that's not necessarily great news. Rosenberg said he thinks it's "beyond bizarre" to say the recession is over. The economy may have pulled out of the free fall that took place from September through February, he said, but that shouldn't be confused with a bottom.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/19/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2009062008

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Inside the Bear Stearns boiler room

Inside the Bear Stearns boiler room
Exclusive book excerpt: Bestselling author William Cohan uncovers the inner workings of the misadventure that brought down Bear Stearns and foreshadowed the financial crisis to come.
By William D. Cohan Last Updated: March 3, 2009: 9:45 AM ET

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Years from now, when academics search for causes of the stock market crash of 2008, they will focus on the pivotal role of mortgage-backed securities. These exotic financial instruments allowed a downturn in U.S. home prices to morph into a contagion that brought down Bear Stearns a year ago this month - and more recently have brought the global banking system to its knees.
What scholars should not miss is the role that the human element - call it greed or ignorance - played in this tragedy. In an exclusive excerpt from William Cohan's new book, "House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street," to be published March 10 by Doubleday, the bestselling author sheds light on the bankers who thought they had mastered what Warren Buffett has called "financial weapons of mass destruction."


By looking back to the roots of the misadventure in which Bear Stearns traders Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin lost roughly $1.6 billion while allegedly misleading investors, Cohan illustrates how the missteps of the few can have consequences for the many.